The US is poised to ease proposed yearly requirements of its sweeping plan to aggressively cut tailpipe emissions and ramp up electric vehicle sales. The energy transition will be a hot topic as CERAWeek by S&P Global conference, one of the industry’s biggest global events, gets underway in Houston. Meanwhile, for agriculture powerhouse Brazil, there’s a growing discrepancy between projections for the nation’s soybean crop.
Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway.
Oil
Crude futures have been stuck in a mostly sideways pattern for much of this year, kept in check by rising oil production from non-OPEC nations and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. That trend may begin to change. The International Energy Agency last week flipped its outlook, forecasting a supply deficit throughout 2024 and boosting expectations for global demand growth to 1.3 million barrels a day. Still, that’s lower than the latest forecast from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries which sees demand growth at 2.2 million barrels a day this year. Investors and analysts will get a better sense of the supply-and-demand picture when they hear from some of the oil industry’s most prominent figures, including Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods, Chevron Corp. CEO Mike Wirth, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser and BP Plc CEO Murray Auchincloss at CERAWeek. Oil was trading higher Monday.
Oil Products
Gasoline futures — which have implications at the retail pump — are rising at a bad time for American drivers just as the peak driving season comes into view. Prices in New York are trading at a more than six-month high, a move that comes as US inventories continue to fall and suppliers begin to transition to a more expensive summer grade fuel. And while implied demand as measured by product supplied data is below seasonal levels, it has been steadily climbing for the last few weeks and will likely only gather further steam. Adding more pressure: Wholesale prices in New York are up almost 20 cents a gallon this month.
Emissions
Speaking of road fuels, the US Environmental Protection Agency is due to issue its long-awaited final rules for tailpipe emission standards this week. Under the initial proposal outlined last year, automakers would be compelled to cut new vehicle emissions some 56% by 2032, effectively ensuring that two out of every three cars and light trucks sold in that year are electric models. The Biden administration is under pressure to slow the proposed rampup in EV sales to allow auto manufacturers more time to comply and to address issues outside of the industry’s direct control, such as the buildout of US power grids, charging stations and battery manufacturing. Domestic EV adoption has continued to grow amid a push for cleaner alternatives to traditional internal combustion engines, with sales expected to keep rising despite headwinds from fewer models being available for tax credits and uncertainty around November’s presidential election should Donald Trump return to office.
Agriculture
The latest round of governmental crop estimates showed a growing divergence between US and Brazil forecasters on the size of the South American nation’s soybean crop. Brazil’s National Supply Company, known as Conab, said last week farmers are poised to harvest 146.9 million metric tons of the commodity, down 5% from last year and roughly 8.1 million tons less than projected a few days earlier by the US Department of Agriculture. That’s the biggest projection discrepancy in at least 15 years at this point in the season. Brazil has been slashing its forecast after persistent drought eroded yields. The estimate difference is “unusual and bizarre,” and suggests the USDA is months-late in the process of accounting for Brazil’s crop losses, said Vinicius Ito, a director at futures and options brokerage Marex.
Shipping
The Panama Canal continues to be a major chokepoint for global shipping amid ongoing drought, and prospects for some relief are slim. Water levels at Gatun Lake — the largest of two lakes that feed the canal — already are at the lowest in at least five years for this time of year and are forecast to fall below 80 feet in the coming weeks. That threatens to curtail more ship traffic and add to elevated surcharges for passage. Conservation measures have enabled the Panama Canal Authority to offer additional slots for transit later this month, but those efforts have come with side effects for potable water supplies and marine life.
(Updates with Monday oil trading in third paragraph, gasoline futures in fourth and refreshes gasoline chart.)
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