The WisdomTree Q1 2022 Economic and Market Outlook in 10 Charts or Less
“I just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in”
(By Kenny Rogers & The First Edition, 1967)
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise. We believe the five primary economic and market signals that provide perspective on where we go from here are GDP growth, earnings, interest rates, inflation and Central Bank policy.
While decelerating from the pace of 2021, U.S. economic growth is expected to remain reasonably strong in 2022, especially if (as we expect), COVID-19 moves increasingly into the rearview mirror. Consensus estimates for GDP growth in 2022 are ~4%.
The Atlanta Fed “GDPNow” estimate pegs Q4 2021 GDP growth at a sizzling 6.8%. We see this as the potential start to another “economic reopening” cycle in the first half of 2022.
Global growth (focus on the purple line in the below charts) is expected to be generally positive as well. 2021 global growth came in at ~5.6%, and the estimate for 2022 is ~4.5%–5.0%.