Why I’m Waiting for the Fed to Pivot

So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting. I’m not waiting for a recession to pass or for GDP to improve. I’m not waiting for a certain employment report or for corporate earnings to change. I’m not waiting for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to moderate or for the Purchasers Managers’ Index to rebound. I’m waiting for just one thing before I increase my risk exposures. I’m waiting for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stop raising interests. I’m waiting for a Fed Pivot.

Google searches for “Fed pivot” increased this year. Source: Google Trends

To be sure, many are waiting for the Fed to reverse its policy course. Some have even publicly pleaded for a ceasefire. However, our reasons differ. Mine relate to my market framework rather than—as I see it— weakly-supported, economic dogma.

A Fed pivot: What it is and why it happens