Greetings from Europe. I promised to write a letter describing my personal investment portfolio. I still plan to, but it won’t be this week. Shane and I are having a wonderful trip—a much-needed break for both of us.
I will leave you with a suggestion, though. My ongoing series about cycles contains some of the most important information I’ve ever shared. While I have much more to say, I think you’ll benefit from reviewing the series so far. I highly suggest you at least glance through the letters linked below.
Turning Time introduces you to Neil Howe’s concept of generational archetypes and how they lead to a “Fourth Turning” crisis.
Turning Time, Part 2 is about the Baby Boomer generation’s unique traits and values, which he thinks will produce a surprising final act.
Turning Time, Part 3 looks at the Millennials, the “Hero” generation who will lead society through the Fourth Turning and then build a new, better world after it ends.
Storms and Patterns reviews George Friedman’s Storm Before the Calm book and how two overlapping cycles are both about to peak at the same time.
The Science of Cycles turns to Peter Turchin’s “cliodynamics” method of historical analysis, which reveals societies everywhere have recurrent waves of instability as elites both fight each other and use a “wealth pump” to extract resources from the population.
Noble Sacrifices goes deeper into Turchin’s ideas, looking closely at how 19th-century Britain and Russia handled their secular cycles far better than others. We then discuss whether the US can do the same.
BONUS READING: Scroll to the very bottom of each page, and you’ll see many interesting reader comments. Feel free to add your own thoughts. I’ll see them when I get home.
I’ll get back on schedule next week with some of Ray Dalio’s cycle analysis, and then later, we’ll look at my own idea of a Debt Supercycle. Be sure to follow me on X.
Your more ready for a break than he knew analyst,
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