S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Upward Trend Decelerates in November

Home prices continued to trend upwards in November, albeit at a slower pace, as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a tenth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.1% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 5.4% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -0.4% and the YoY was reduced to -1.2%.

SP Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20-city composite

The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 10-city index saw a 0.2% MoM, and a 6.3% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM dropped to -0.3% and YoY dropped to -0.4%.

SP Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10-city composite

The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.2% increase MoM, and a 5.2% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.3% and YoY fell to -1.4%.

SP Case-Shiller Home Price Index national composite

Here is the analysis from today's Standard & Poor's press release:

ANALYSIS

“U.S. home prices edged downward from their all-time high in November,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P DJI. “The streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months. Seattle and San Francisco reported the largest monthly declines, falling 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.”

“November’s year-over-year gain saw the largest growth in U.S. home prices in 2023, with our National Composite rising 5.1% and the 10-city index rising 6.2%. Detroit held its position as the best performing market for the third month in a row, accelerating to an 8.2% gain. San Diego notched an 8% annual gain, retaining its second spot in the nation. Barring a late surge from another market, those cities will vie for the ‘housing market of the year’ as the best performing city in our composite.”

“Six cities registered a new all-time high in November (Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, New York, and Cleveland). Portland remains the lone market in annual decline. The Northeast and Midwest recorded the largest gains with returns of 6.4% and 6.3%, respectively. Other regions are not far behind with the slowest gains in the West of 3%. This month’s report revealed the narrowest spread of performance across the nation since the first quarter of 2021.”

“The tight disparity speaks to a rising tide across the country, with less evidence of micro-markets bucking the trend. The days of markets in the South rising double digits with markets in the Midwest remaining flat are over. The house price decline came at a time where mortgage rates peaked, with the average Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage nearing 8%, according to Federal Reserve data. The rate has since fallen over 1%, which could support further annual gains in home prices.”