Q1 Third Estimate: GDP Per Capita versus GDP

The third estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 1.41%, a deceleration from 3.40% for the Q4 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 0.95%, a decrease from 2.79% for the Q4 headline number.

Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we've chained in today's dollar for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on quarterly aggregates of mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence our 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data is available in the FRED series POPTHM. The logarithmic vertical axis ensures that the highlighted contractions have the same relative scale.

The chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the current trend, since the great recession, has a visibly lower slope than the long-term trend. In fact, the current GDP per-capita is 6.0% below the pre-recession trend (2008).

Real GDP per Capita with Exponential Regression trendline

The real per-capita series gives us a better understanding of the depth and duration of GDP contractions. As we can see, since our 1960 starting point, the recession that began in December 2007 is associated with a deeper trough than previous contractions, which perhaps justifies its nickname as the "Great Recession".