RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

The RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average.

  1. Corporate Bond Market Composite
  2. Treasury Bond Market Composite
  3. Stock Market Composite
  4. Labor Market Composite
  5. Credit Market Composite
  6. Mortgage Market

Here is an excerpt from the description:

As with all weekly indices though, the data is far more volatile than monthly or quarterly indicators and the WLEI components are therefore subject to more false positives (calling recession when one does not occur.). The WLEI is heavily weighed toward financial market data, but the obvious advantage of this is that data revisions are minor and isolated to the Labor Market Composite and small portions of the Credit Market Composite.