S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Hits New Record High in September

Home prices continued to trend upwards in September as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a twentieth consecutive month to a new all-time high. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.2% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 4.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -0.2% and the YoY was -0.6%.

The benchmark 10-city index rose for a twentieth consecutive month to a new all-time high in September. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 10-city index saw a 0.1% MoM, and a 5.2% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM dropped to -0.2% and YoY dropped to 0.0%.

The benchmark national index rose for a twentieth consecutive month to a new all-time high in September. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.9% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.0% and YoY fell to -1.2%.

Here is the analysis from today's Standard & Poor's press release:

ANALYSIS

“Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “The slight downtick could be attributed to technical factors as the seasonally adjusted figures boasted a 16th consecutive all-time high.

“We continue to see above-trend price growth in the Northeast and Midwest, growing 5.7% and 5.4%, respectively, led by New York, Cleveland, and Chicago,” Luke continued. “The Big Apple has taken the top spot for five consecutive months, pushing the region ahead of all others since August 2023. The South region reported its slowest growth in over a year, rising 2.8%, barely above current inflation levels.”

The chart below, which uses seasonally adjusted data, is an overlay of the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Composite Indexes along with the national index since 1987, the first year that the 10-city composite was tracked. The 20-city, which is probably the most closely watched of the three, dates from 2000. All three indexes are currently at their all-time nominal highs.

This next chart shows the real-inflation adjusted indexes using the CPI owner's equivalent rent of residences. The national index reached its real all-time high in May 2022, while the 10-city and 20-city composites reached theirs during the housing bubble in March 2006.

The next chart shows the year-over-year Case-Shiller series, again using the seasonally adjusted data.

Here is the same chart as above but it has been adjusted for inflation using the CPI owner's equivalent rent of residences.

Here is a look at the seasonally and inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller price index from 1987, the first year that monthly data is available (note here we are using the regular CPI, which is indexed to 1982, not 2000).

To get an even better idea of the trend in housing prices over long time periods, we compare the change in the seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the CPI.

ETFs associated with residential real-estate include: iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (REZ).

For additional perspectives on residential real estate, here is the complete list of our monthly updates:

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Hits New Record High in September

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