The third estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.50%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -1.00%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.
Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we've chained in today's dollar for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on quarterly aggregates of mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence our 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data is available in the FRED series POPTHM. The logarithmic vertical axis ensures that the highlighted contractions have the same relative scale.
The chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the current trend, since the great recession, has a visibly lower slope than the long-term trend. In fact, the current GDP per-capita is 5.9% below the pre-recession trend (2008).
The real per-capita series gives us a better understanding of the depth and duration of GDP contractions. As we can see, since our 1960 starting point, the recession that began in December 2007 is associated with a deeper trough than previous contractions, which perhaps justifies its nickname as the "Great Recession".
Quarterly GDP Per Capita
The standard measure of GDP in the US is expressed as the compounded annual rate of change from one quarter to the next. The real GDP growth rate is -0.5%. But with a per-capita adjustment, the data series is lower at -1.0%. The chart illustrates the 2.06% historical average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 1.98%.
The chart above has many interesting data points but can be quite overwhelming to look at. This next chart is a simplified version over the past few years.
GDP Per Capita Year Over Year
GDP per capita, as we've seen, is a weaker series than GDP. What does it suggest about recession risk? The next chart shows the YoY change in real GDP per capita since 1960. We've again highlighted recessions. The blue show the YoY real GDP for the quarter before the recession began, and the dotted line gives us a sense of how the current level compares to recession starts since 1960. The average rate at the start of the recessions shown is 1.47%. The current real YoY GDP per capita is 1.25%, the lowest level since Q4 2022. The current level is at or below 4 of the 9 recession starts during this time frame.
How do the two YoY series compare, GDP and GDP per capita? Here is an overlay of the two in the 21st century.
Real GDP YoY is currently at 1.99%. With a per-capita adjustment, we see that real GDP Per Capita YoY drops to 1.25%.
Other GDP updates: Latest GDP Update and Inside Look at GDP.
More Estate Planning Topics >
