Chinese shares plunged and sovereign yields neared an all-time low as investors braced themselves for the fall-out of a spiraling trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.
President Donald Trump’s trade war has US stocks on track to enter their first bear market since the Covid pandemic.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of March 28th, the index was at 12.038, down 1.225 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Good news: Tariffs will not make the world end. American businesses will do what they do best, which is adapt. While the probability of a recession has increased, we always get through it and the best businesses thrive. Unless directly affected by tariffs, don’t change your personal plans that much.
Last week's economic landscape was dramatically reshaped by President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariff policies on what he declared "Liberation Day." His announcement triggered a historic sell-off in the stock market.
Global markets are in freefall in response to President Donald Trump’s universal 10% tariff on all goods being imported into the U.S., with as many as 60 countries facing “reciprocal” tariffs on top of that.
The trajectory of small businesses often goes something this: a first-generation entrepreneur starts and grows a company. It could be a software company, but also a plumbing, electrical, or HVAC business.
The 10% across-the-board (ad valorem) tariff and specific reciprocal tariffs on most U.S. trading partners went well beyond what most were expecting.
The incremental tariffs were bolder than market expectations and ushered in new uncertainty.
If tariffs are imposed on gold and silver will their prices rise, fall, or stay the same? We explain facts and myths when it comes to gold prices and tariffs.
China’s prolonged reliance on fiscal stimulus has distorted economic incentives, fueling a housing glut, a collapse in prices, and spiraling public debt. With further stimulus off the table, the only sustainable path is for the central government to relinquish more economic power to local governments and the private sector.
The tariff chaos continues … but the economy remains intact. For now.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley discussed the details of the Trump administration’s tariff plan and the market’s reaction.
The early days of the Trump administration have brought sweeping tariff announcements. While the situation is fluid, the direction is clear: trade restrictions are likely to increase, with China as a primary target.
U.S. stocks underperformed in the first quarter of 2025, hit by a double whammy from intensifying policy uncertainty and a U-turn in select mega cap stocks.
We examine the April 2 tariff announcement from President Trump, outlining key proposals and the potential implications for trade and market sentiment.
In the report, Fixed Income Portfolio Managers John Lloyd and Greg Wilensky discuss how fixed income markets are responding to Trump’s sweeping tariffs and the implications for investors.
To most people, black gold means oil, the substance that helped build the modern world while causing the climate crisis. But a new treasure on the market is getting prospectors excited, not least for the role it could play in fixing the problem fossil fuels created.
By sparing Mexico and Canada from his reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump has kept the pact known as USMCA on life support. That’s no small feat given the animosity shown by the US government toward its neighbors in the past weeks.
As volatility rises, staying invested is a strategic priority for capturing long-term return potential in a broadening market.
U.S. indexes suffered their worst day since the pandemic, hurt by Trump's massive tariffs that sparked recession fears. Almost every sector fell, with retailers and tech hard hit.
We’d like to discuss our three worst-performing securities in the US portfolio to help our investors understand why we are sitting on our hands and allowing our discipline to proceed.
The Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) slipped nearly 2.5% last week. That sparked fresh fears that current geopolitical and macroeconomic climates remain headwinds to growth stocks. Those headwinds may imply investors aren’t flocking to AI stocks
The stock market faces severe downside risk ahead, and the U.S. is constrained in the unsystematic monetary and fiscal expansion that both amplified that bubble and fueled record but wholly impermanent corporate profit margins. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy now faces an imminent recession, and if we fail to be vigilant, we, once united Americans, risk losing what is far greater and more valuable than money.
Join the experts at KraneShares and Hedgeye as they explore a unique approach to minimizing volatility compared to traditional hedged or buffered products.
In the report, Fixed income portfolio managers Brent Olson and Tim Winstone reflect on the initial credit market response to President Trump’s tariffs.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 31, 2025 close.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In March, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%.
Light vehicle sales spiked to their highest level in nearly four years in March while heavy truck sales dropped to its lowest level since July 2020.
Join our upcoming webinar for a comprehensive review of ROBO Global's flagship indices and their standout performers from the past quarter.
Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Amazon.com Inc. have found an avenue to profit from Elon Musk’s chaotic Department of Government Efficiency.
Traders boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year and US Treasuries rallied as a solid report on American jobs failed to calm markets.
President Donald Trump’s new reciprocal tariff policy is straightforwardly bad for the US economy and markets. The only conceivable reason that the S&P 500 Index was down just 4% on Thursday is that investors still don’t believe it will stick. Unfortunately, there’s no quick way out of this quagmire.
Investors crushed the stocks of consumer discretionary companies on Thursday in response to President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, making little distinction between home goods companies such as Williams-Sonoma Inc., apparel names including Nike Inc. or restaurants such as Cheesecake Factory Inc.
Ideally, nobody would have to worry about the burgeoning and multifaceted realm of nonbank finance: Let hedge funds, securities dealers and the like take whatever risks they want, as long as they bear the full consequences.
The latest employment report showed that 228,000 jobs were added in March, exceeding the expected 137,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched up to 4.2%.
The combination of slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation, combined with uncertainty about U.S. tariff policy, is keeping investors cautious.
The popularity of Buffered ETFs, also referred to as Defined outcome ETFs, has exploded over the last five years. Historically there has been a wide deviation in caps over the years.
Social Security faces funding issues by 2035, but major changes to the program are unlikely in the near term.
To summarize the market action of March of 2025: U.S. stocks (SPX) did poorly, international stocks (especially Europe, VGK) did well in dollar terms, and gold (IAU) did spectacularly well. The main culprit appears to market concerns about the Trump administration’s tariff policies.
The absolute best time to start investing would be the day you turned 18 and could legally open a brokerage account.
Portfolio managers that didn’t fully embrace the AI trade withstood their share of criticism over the past year or two, as many AI-linked stocks reached great heights.
Adam Hetts, Global Head of Multi-Asset & Portfolio Manager, and Oliver Blackbourn, Portfolio Manager, give their thoughts on how US President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have reshaped global trade dynamics, emphasising the benefits of diversification at a time of heightened uncertainty about the prospects for growth.
Active ETFs just topped the $1 trillion threshold, making up nearly 10% of the total ETF pie. Enhanced yield is the name of the game.
With nearly half of the bond market now outside of the Agg, a number of opportunities exist for those seeking exposure beyond the benchmark.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $19,313 for an annualized real return of 13.24%.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the March 2025 close.
U.S. ETFs saw record first quarter flows this year, bringing in $296 billion during the first three months of 2025.
With the Q4 GDP third estimate and the March close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 209.6%, up slightly from the previous quarter.
