Facing an uncertain outlook, the Federal Reserve holds rates steady and signals a watch-and-wait approach.
Macroeconomic uncertainties prompted the Federal Reserve to signal a slower pace of policy rate cuts in 2025 and beyond.
In a week with a U.S. presidential election and market volatility, the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate 25 basis points (bps) as expected. Amid this noise and the generally positive messages from recent macro data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that downside economic risks had decreased, but the policy rate remains above neutral, suggesting that gradual cuts are still likely to come over time.
We believe the Fed is on a path to continue to cut rates over the next several meetings to realign monetary policy with a now more “normal” U.S. economy.
The central bank’s latest policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks suggest that an initial interest rate cut could come as soon as September.
A second straight month of encouraging U.S. core CPI data supports an initial Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September.
Good news on U.S. inflation in May did not sway the Federal Reserve to signal interest rate cuts could come sooner.
April’s U.S. inflation report likely offers some comfort to Federal Reserve officials, but rate cuts are unlikely until we see a more substantial deceleration in inflation.
Despite the reacceleration of inflation and enduring labor market strength, the Fed remains focused on downside risks.
Federal Reserve officials appear locked in for multiple rate cuts this year, despite inflation reaccelerating – raising questions about the speed and timing of this easing cycle.
The Federal Reserve sees progress on inflation, but wants more certainty before it’s prepared to lower the policy rate.
The market anticipates a swift shift in the Fed cycle.
U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, and bond markets rallied, but the Fed is likely to remain in a long pause.
Tighter financial conditions prompted Federal Reserve officials to take a step back from data dependence, and suggest a higher bar for future hikes.
The latest inflation report raises the odds of further Federal Reserve action.
The Federal Reserve forecasts only a modest uptick in U.S. unemployment next year as inflation cools, but history and current labor market trends make us less certain.
Amid an outlook for slower growth and more moderate inflation, the Fed shifts to data dependence.
After stubborn U.S. inflation in the first half of 2023 kept the Federal Reserve raising rates, June’s softer inflation report suggests July may mark the end of the hiking cycle.
The Federal Reserve paused in June but raised its estimates for the policy rate later this year. We expect a July increase but remain skeptical about subsequent hikes.
March inflation data may put the Federal Reserve close to its terminal policy rate this cycle, if it hasn’t already reached it.
Slower credit growth may curtail broader U.S. economic growth, taking pressure off the Federal Reserve.
U.S. inflation may not be moderating as quickly as many were expecting.
Investors face mixed signals between the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance and recent economic developments.
Falling prices for cars and holiday discounting contributed to softer U.S. inflation, creating more room for the Fed to potentially dial back its hawkish stance.
The Federal Reserve’s November statement included dovish language, but Fed Chair Powell warned investors not to expect the Fed to stray from its full focus on fighting inflation.
Core inflation in the U.S. outpaced expectations for September and may fortify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish resolve.
The Federal Reserve released new economic projections suggesting interest rate hikes will be faster and larger than previously forecast.
The Federal Reserve may be pressured to target a higher terminal fed funds rate as it seeks to tame U.S. inflation expectations following strong price rises in August.
In Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve officials unequivocally emphasized their commitment to bringing inflation under control – even as the U.S. economy slows.
Despite price declines in many sectors, the Federal Reserve may continue its hawkish approach.
The Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to price stability, hiking its policy rate 75 basis points again and signaling more tightening to come.
Renewed growth in China’s manufacturing activity, coupled with softening developed market demand, should ease some supply-side pressures – but several other inflation risks remain prevalent.
June’s U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation data likely set alarms blaring in the minds of Federal Reserve officials.
June’s U.S. inflation data will likely force central bankers into more restrictive territory – raising the odds of recession.
The Bank of Canada embarked on a swift tightening path, but secular forces still weigh on the longer-run interest rate outlook.
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised the policy rate at the March meeting and signaled more hikes to come given the risks from high inflation.
Much of the global economy has transitioned quickly from an early-cycle recovery to a mid-cycle expansion that now appears to be rapidly progressing toward late-cycle dynamics.
At the January 2022 meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled an accelerated timetable to normalize policy, but it will be a long process amid an uncertain environment.
The strong inflation report combined with employment data will likely prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin hiking its policy rate in March.
The Federal Reserve pulls forward rate hike expectations and doubles the pace of tapering in an effort to provide more flexibility to react in 2022.
The Federal Reserve navigated its tapering announcement without much market volatility, but faces the challenge of managing rate expectations amid elevated inflation risks.
We believe the U.S. is undergoing a large price-level adjustment, not shifting to a persistently higher inflation regime.
One year since the inception of one of the most severe recessions in modern history, women’s engagement in the labor force is crucial to the economic recovery.
With a narrowly Democratic Congress, U.S. fiscal spending is likely to increase on economic relief from the pandemic, infrastructure, and healthcare, boosting the economic rebound.
The Federal Reserve signals that monetary policy accommodation will remain firmly in place.
Washington will likely focus on fiscal stimulus immediately – but given the realities of governing and the pandemic, economic recovery will take time.
Canada’s central bank looks to evolve its policy framework amid concern over disinflationary trends.
The lack of market reaction suggests that many investors are not convinced that the Fed’s new guidance represents any material shift in policy.
The Federal Reserve released the results of its multiyear framework review alongside a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Policy Forum on 27-28 August. While the announcement came earlier than anticipated, the conclusions were in line with the evolutionary, not revolutionary, changes to the Fed’s framework we have long been expecting.
