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45 results found.
Has Anything Changed?
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
A strong July employment report caused Treasury yields to spike higher, but the broader message from the bond market has not changed. Improvement in economic data will need to exhibit greater consistency to exert meaningful upside pressure to bond yields.
High-Yield Municipal Update
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
High-yield municipal bonds have benefited from broad bond market strength in 2016, but are now more subject to the path of interest rates over the remainder of the year. As we mentioned in our Midyear Outlook 2016: A Vote of Confidence publication, we expect more muted returns across the bond market, and high-yield municipal bonds may see a slowdown after a robust 8.9% total return through July 22, 2016.
Brexit & Bonds
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
High-quality bond strength following the Brexit vote is likely to persist if history is any guide. Flight-to-safety buying, which is typical in response to market or geopolitical shocks, propelled Treasuries to strong gains in response to voters in the United Kingdom (U.K.) deciding to leave the European Union (EU).
Municipals Buck the Seasonal Trend
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Municipal bonds have thus far bucked the trend of typical headwinds in June. The Barclays Municipal Bond Index has returned 1.1% month to date through June 17, 2016, a stark contrast to the -0.55% total return the Barclays Municipal Bond Index has averaged in June over the past 10 years. The index has posted positive returns only three times over that time span—a remarkably poor batting average for any interest bearing sector—illustrating the consistency of June challenges until this year.
ECB Corporate Purchase Program
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
The European Central Bank's (ECB) Corporate Securities Purchase Program (CSPP) is set to begin on June 8. This program was initially announced in March, and brings corporate bonds into the European quantitative easing (QE) program, in an attempt to lower debt costs broadly. Though the first purchases are yet to be made, European corporate yields have fallen significantly, showing that the market has priced in its impact, making further broad gains less likely. Still, the low-yield environment is likely to push foreign cash toward the relatively higher yields in U.S. markets, potentially keeping a lid on U.S. Treasury and corporate yields as well.
High-Yield Bonds Still Dependent on Oil
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
High-yield has continued its run of strong performance that started in mid-February 2016, but continues to remain highly dependent on the path of oil prices. Second quarter 2016 economic growth prospects have also helped, but have taken a backseat to the impact of oil. Fair valuations, rising defaults, and continued dependency on oil suggest caution after an impressive rebound since mid-February 2016.
The Great Bond Sell-Off of 2015: Repeating in 2016?
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Although not perfect, the path of yields so far in 2016 bears similarities to 2015. Both 2015 and 2016 witnessed sharp declines in yield to start the year before yields moved higher during the second quarter. However, there are key differences this time around that may work in the bond market's favor.
Time to Buy Mortgages?
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may provide opportunity in a challenging bond market environment. High-quality bond prices remain near 2016 highs, and yields on Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, and municipal bonds remain near the low end of recent ranges. MBS are in a similar situation but offer attributes that may present incremental value.
Mixed Messages From Municipals
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Low yields coupled with fair valuations send a mixed message from the municipal bond market. The shift from a challenging seasonal period to a more favorable one provides another. The passage of April 15, or April 18 as is the case this year, marks not only the tax deadline but also the end of a challenging seasonal period for municipal bonds. Tax-related selling can often pressure municipal prices as soon as the start of March, but lackluster performance in both stock and bond markets in 2015 limited capital gains that might result in municipal bond sales.
State of the States
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
With the deadline approaching, taxes are front and center in the minds of investors. No one likes paying taxes, but they are of utmost importance to the financial well-being of state and local governments. Higher tax revenue has been a key driver of improving (in most cases) state and local government credit quality metrics by firming the financial standing of municipal government debt issuers. However, growth in state and local government tax revenue may be poised to slow, lessening the positive impact behind municipal credit quality.
A Tale of Two Halves
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
The first quarter of 2016 is in the record books and for most, including bond investors, it was a tale of two halves. During the first six weeks of the year, domestic economic concerns, worries over the state of China’s economy, and a near 30% decline in the price of oil sparked a strong Treasury rally that drove high-quality bond yields lower—not just in the U.S., but globally as well. Then the last six weeks of the quarter saw a shift for lower-rated bonds, thanks to improving economic data and market-friendly central bank actions. Through all the ups and downs, it was a strong quarter for bond performance; however, we don’t expect this strength to repeat over the remainder of the year.
An International Perspective
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
International factors can help explain the relative resilience of longer-term bonds from mid-February to the start of March. Since Treasury yields bottomed on February 11, 2016, the 2-year Treasury yield has increased by 0.15% compared with a more muted 0.09% rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. The relative resilience of longer-term .
How Extreme It Is
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by 0.6% over the past six weeks, a very rare occurrence. Going back 20 years, such a noteworthy yield decline over such a short period of time has occurred only 2% of the time since February 1996. Figure 1 illustrates not only the rarity of such large yield declines, but also the significant events that pushed high-quality bond prices higher and yields lower. Recessions or global crises are the most frequent catalyst, although the current episode has no single driver. China growth fears, oil prices, sluggish U.S. economic growth, and most recently, bank cr
Watch Out for Falling Angels
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
The potential downgrade of over $100 billion worth of investment-grade rated bonds into the high-yield market looms as the next challenge for corporate bonds. The decline in oil and commodity prices may lead to $120–150 billion worth of bonds leaving the investment-grade corporate bond market and entering the high-yield bond market.
The Challenges Facing Emerging Markets Debt
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Emerging markets debt (EMD) valuations have cheapened in recent weeks, as weaker Chinese economic data and lower oil prices pushed prices lower and yield spreads higher. The average yield spread closed at 4.6% on Friday, January 15, 2016, essentially matching the post-recession peak of August 2015; and the average yield to maturity rose to 6.25%, the highest since mid-2011 and the height of European debt fears.
Fed Rate Hike Playbook: Part 2
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
In Part 2 of our Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike playbook, we assess how municipal bonds have fared during periods of Fed rate increases. In the first full week of trading for 2016, Fed rate hike expectations declined in response to another bout of Chinese economic concerns and a benign message from the Fed meeting minutes, which appeared to cast doubt on whether the Fed would ultimately follow through on its forecast of roughly four rate increases in 2016.
High Yield: Flows Over Fundamentals
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
High-yield bond selling, or the threat of selling, has sparked one of the worst sell-offs in the high-yield bond market since the summer of 2011 and the peak of European debt fears. The origin of high-yield weakness has come from the lowest-rated tiers of the high-yield market but has infected the broader market. Last week’s redemption freeze by an $800 million high-yield strategy, and news of a similar halt by a smaller fund over the weekend of December 12–13, 2015, intensified pressure on the high-yield bond market.
2016 Fixed Income Outlook: New Episode, Same Show
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
We expect a limited return environment may persist in 2016 and the year as a whole may look similar to 2015. High valuations, steady economic growth, and the lingering threat of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes may keep pressure on bond prices in 2016. We do not envision a recession developing, which we believe is ultimately needed for a sustained move higher in bond prices.
Waiting for the Fed
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
The inverse correlation between stocks and high-quality bonds failed to hold over the past week, after holding for October 2015, suggesting other forces are at work. The answer to the bond market’s indifference to risk asset performance may lie in market fixation over a possible Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December 2015. According to fed fund futures pricing, market expectations for the timing of the Fed’s first rate were essentially unchanged, with the probability of a December rate hike marginally lower on the week to 64% from 70%.
How Fast and How High
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
We do not believe last week’s sell-off is the start of a spike in interest rates. In fact, the spike may have already occurred with the 10-year Treasury yield higher by nearly 0.4% since October 14, 2015. The 30-year Treasury yield has also undergone a significant adjustment [Figure 1]. Yields on both 10- and 30-year benchmark Treasury yields have broken above the September highs and are within striking distance of 2015 highs of 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively. From a technical perspective, a breach above these levels would be needed to sustain a breakout to new yield highs.
Zero Yields & The Debt Ceiling
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
The Treasury issued new three-month Treasury bills (T-bills) at 0% yield at auction last week and is on pace to do so again on October 13, 2015. Zero percent T-bill yields, or even lower, are not new, but 0% prevailing at an auction is unusual and made media headlines.
Summer Quartet
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Music from four players continues to influence events in the bond market this summer: the Federal Reserve (Fed), China, oil prices, and the U.S. dollar. The music from these four players has led to a mixed response in the bond market: disturbing for short-term securities, melodic for long-term bonds.
Parsing Puerto Rico
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Puerto Rico municipal bond prices continue to reflect a significant probability of a potential default or debt restructuring. Puerto Rican difficulties are coming to a head: The commonwealth is suffering through a recession that began in 2006, a severe cash crunch has increased the prospects of a missed bond payment, and a greater than forecast budget deficit means that revenue fell short again and more cost reductions are needed.
The Future is Already Here
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
A good idea of what the future will look like for bond investors is already here. The three-year average annualized total return of the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, a broad measure of high-quality bond performance, stood at a very modest 1.8% at the end of June 2015. This is an average return, and shorter-term returns have been both higher and lower over the past three years, but it provides an approximation of what investors may expect over a longer time frame.
Bond Tug-of-War
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
The bond market tried to end the month of May on a high note but did not quite make the mark. The last 10 days of May 2015 witnessed fairly steady improvement in high-quality bond prices after a difficult five weeks, but it was still not enough to offset losses for the month. The broad Barclays Aggregate Bond Index still finished 0.24% lower in May and posted consecutive monthly declines for the first time since the last two months of 2013.
Taper Tantrum Redux
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
After a brief reprieve at the end of last week (May 4–8, 2015), the global bond sell-off resumed Monday, May 11, 2015, with 10- and 30-year Treasury yields rising to year-to-date highs of 2.28% and 3.04%, respectively. Treasury yields have now broken out of their recent ranges and have done so quickly.
Made In Europe
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
A weak finish to the month of April 2015 was “made in Europe” as expectations of better global growth weighed on bonds. On Monday, May 4, 2015, the 10-year German government bond yield closed at 0.45%, more than quadrupling over the past two weeks. European strength combined with a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting outcome continued to arrest U.S. dollar strength, a primary driver of the steady decline in inflation and investors’ inflation expectations from mid-2014 through the first quarter of 2015.
Cross Currents
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Cross currents continue to push and pull the bond market, leaving bond prices and yields range bound ahead of another Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and key batch of monthly economic reports. Intermediate to long-term Treasury yields increased by 0.01% to 0.11% for the week ending April 24, 2015, despite weaker economic data.
Breaking Up is Hard to Do
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
The high-yield energy sector has kept pace with the broader high-yield bond market in 2015 even as oil prices weakened, a notable difference from 2014. Although we don’t believe the high-yield bond market will return to the June 2014 peak, the current yield spread may still represent good value given still strong corporate fundamentals and low defaults.
Patiently Waiting
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
The Fed faces a number of obstacles now and may require greater justification to suggest raising interest rates as soon as June. Bond market reaction to recent Fed meetings has been initially bearish but muted overall. Maintaining the word “patient” could have different implications for segments of the bond market.
Hot and Cold Bonds
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
January 2015 was the best month for high-quality bonds since December 2008. In February 2015, high-quality bonds posted their worst monthly performance since June 2013 and the taper tantrum sell-off. High-yield bonds experienced ups and downs thus far in 2015. After a muted January, high-yield bonds returned 2.4% in February, the largest single month gain since October 2013. After a wild first two months, we expect more muted returns over the remainder of 2015.
Why own bonds?
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
A soft start for the U.S. stock market in 2015 once again illustrates the diversification benefit of high-quality bonds even at very low yields. Even in a low-yield environment, bonds provide a cushion as price movements, not yields, are the primary buffer to equity movements. An allocation to core bonds, in addition to more attractively valued high-yield bonds, may make sense for investors.
Tempting TIPS
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Lower inflation expectations as a result of falling oil prices have weighed on TIPS prices during the second half of 2014. TIPS underperformance has led to the lowest market-implied inflation expectations of the past four years. We do, however, find TIPS an attractive high-quality option and certainly more appealing than Treasuries as a result of recent underperformance.
Tempting TIPS
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Lower inflation expectations as a result of falling oil prices have weighed on TIPS prices during the second half of 2014. TIPS underperformance has led to the lowest market-implied inflation expectations of the past four years. We do, however, find TIPS an attractive high-quality option and certainly more appealing than Treasuries as a result of recent underperformance.
2015 Fixed Income Outlook: Handle with Care
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
With sustained improvement in economic growth, slowly rising inflation, and the approach of the Feds first interest rate hike, bond prices are likely to decline in 2015. High-yield bonds and bank loans can help investors manage this challenging bond market.
Disinflation Infatuation
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Inflation expectations have fallen sharply in recent weeks, driven by European disinflation, lower energy prices, and overall growth concerns. The persistence of low inflation expectations may intensify the lower for longer theme via lower growth expectations and delays to potential Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.
Bond Yields Around a First Rate Hike
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Historically, bond yields have begun to move more forcefully four to six months ahead of a first rate hike from the Fed. We believe the rise in interest rates may begin sooner this cycle due to lower yields and more expensive valuations. We favor capitalizing on year-to-date bond strength and recommend a defensive posture consisting of short to intermediate bonds.
Behind the Curve?
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
Despite the Fed labeling the recent inflation increase as noise, longer-term bond yields rose, inflation expectations increased, and the yield curve steepened -- all signs of the bond market pricing in inflation risks. As the low inflation pillar of year-to-date bond strength fades, it may be one more reason to be cautious in the bond market.
45 results found.
