US households are now paying roughly as much interest on other kinds of debt, from credit cards to student loans, as they are on their mortgages, according to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The question that obsessed financial markets last year was when and where US inflation would peak. The 2023 version will likely be how far, and how fast, it comes down.
Judging by the record number of people who’ve quit their jobs in the pandemic -– the so-called Great Resignation -– millions of Americans don’t really like their work.
Things are about to get worse -- but after that, they should steadily get better. That’s roughly how economists envisage the path of U.S. inflation in the year ahead.
Just because pandemic inflation is transitory doesn’t mean it’s going away anytime soon.
Economics used to offer lots of metrics that claimed to show when growing economies were approaching some kind of speed limit. But increasingly, inflation is the only one that’s taken seriously.
Stripped down to basics, the new consensus in economics goes like this: It’s fine for governments to borrow and spend more money -- so long as they can get hold of it cheaply.
Joe Biden’s administration has dedicated its first few weeks in office to spending more money on pandemic relief -- and shrugged off warnings that the economy may overheat as a result.
They’re still in the minority, but investors and economists who think America is in for a bout of inflation -- perhaps a serious one -- start the year with some fresh ammunition for their arguments.
Much will depend on how fast businesses bring back jobs.
With government spending helping to steer countries through the pandemic, it may not be easy to turn off the taps afterward.
They are gaining support in Congress and among economists as the scale of the coronavirus shock has become much clearer.