Over the past few years, even as they have been gritting their teeth and complaining about higher prices, consumers have been fueling US economic growth. Now their pandemic savings are gone and the labor market is cooling off, raising the question: How much will the economy slow down?

Recessions are notoriously difficult to predict. At the end of 2019, for example, many pundits were forecasting a recession simply because the boom had gone on for so long.

‘Tis the season for headlines about the prices of some very specific items, such as a 16-pound turkey (down from last year) or a Christmas tree (up). None of these prices, however, is a good barometer of the overall cost of living.

As it turns out, the big economic story of 2023 is not a recession, as many had predicted — it’s the disconnect between consumer sentiment and behavior.

The typical American is a lot richer now than they were just before the pandemic — and this improvement is at least partially due to government support for families and businesses in 2020 and 2021.

Economics is still a male-dominated profession. Among full professors, only 1 out of every 8 is a woman. Among assistant professors, women are a little less than 1 in 3, similar to their share of undergraduate economics majors.

Labor strikes aren’t cheap. Equipment sits idle. Supply chains get gummed up. Workers lose wages, shareholders lose profits, governments lose tax revenue. All these effects can have an adverse impact on economic growth, employment and inflation.