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First Quarter 2021 Economic & Market Outlook: Looking Beyond the Traditional
by Brian Andrew, Jason Herried, Ron Alberts of Johnson Financial Group, 2/1/21

In a year that offered a pandemic and an election as reasons for investors to bail on risky assets, 2020 turned out to be a great year for those that stayed the course. A 60/40 portfolio of diversified stocks and bonds increased by a double-digit percentage, exceeding expectations.

Double Fault
by Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group, 4/8/19

We believe that bond investors should use the benefits of a stable rate environment to buy yield on the short to intermediate part of the yield curve. Stock investors have a more complicated task in 2019, albeit less so now that the Fed has indicated it is not hiking interest rates and will end the reduction in its balance sheet assets by October.

Is Good News Bad or Good?
by Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group, 1/16/19

With unemployment below 4% (considered full employment by the Fed) and wage inflation pressure still positive, the Fed will want to continue to remove the stimulus from its policy. This means continuing to hike interest rates, albeit it at a reduced pace from the last two years.

Rate Reset?
by Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group, 12/12/16

Bond investors are feeling a little shell-shocked after the rise in interest rates in November.

Too Much Capacity
by Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group, 10/28/16

Last week, the Federal Reserve released some information about the U.S. economy’s capacity utilization and industrial production (these numbers are released together).

The Debate
by Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group, 9/30/16
Monday night we had an opportunity to see the two presidential candidates face off, which heightens the debate over who will ultimately be elected in November.

Bright Spot
by Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group, 7/27/16
In the midst of convention turmoil and concerns about the economy’s growth rate, it is nice to find a bright spot in all the data we track. Recently, we received information about the current state of the housing market and the news was good. While housing usually represents 3-5% of the overall economy, one could argue there is no better measure of consumer sentiment. And, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) suggests that when you consider all the jobs that are needed to produce the materials to build a home, the economic contribution is much higher.

More of the Same is Not So Bad
by Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group, 7/1/16
Today we received an important report on the health of consumer spending. The report showed a May increase of .3% and a revised April increase of .8%. With these numbers it looks like second quarter spending could come in at 4%, supporting the idea that overall economic growth will be 3 to 4 times greater than the first quarter.

Split Second Timing
by Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group, 6/10/16
This weekend, my son and I had an opportunity to enjoy the Dairyland Classic at Road America, a spectacle of motorcycle racing at one of the best road courses in the United States. One of the things you learn if you follow these racers, who travel at speeds up to 180 mph around the 4 mile track, is that every move they make, each second, has a meaningful impact on the outcome of their race. One bit of hesitation, turning a few feet too early or late, and the racer’s place is at stake. It is safe to say that the Federal Reserve has a lot more time to determine their next move than these motorcycle racers.

Let’s Talk Politics
by Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group, 3/10/16
Last week we met with a number of customers and prospective customers to discuss markets and the economy. During the Q&A session a question was asked regarding the presidential election and its impact on markets. A great question, especially during such an interesting election cycle!

A Great Defense
by Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group, 2/10/16
For those of you who watched the Super Bowl Sunday night, we were all reminded that while a great defense can keep you in the game, you need some offense to win. Both the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos played great defense. At times, it looked like no one was going to be able to score. In fact, the Broncos’ only touchdown until the fourth quarter, came from the defense! The stock market’s gyrations last week remind us that knowing how to play defense in an investment portfolio is equally as important.

Learning from Taylor
by Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group, 2/8/16
While attending one of my son’s downhill ski races over the weekend, I found myself riding the chairlift back to the top of the hill listening to the fifth Taylor Swift song in a row, blaring from the loud speakers. I thought, isn’t it possible that we’ve had too much of Taylor Swift? I mean she is everywhere on country and pop radio and has been for many years. And that had me thinking about last week’s news from central bankers, here in the U.S. and abroad.

Dog Days
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 8/6/15
As we enter the lazy days of August, historically one of the worst months for stock market performance, we are likely to experience increased market volatility, gyrating interest rates on every piece of economic data and low volume. August tends to be a month without much conviction as the number of investors in the market wanes due to summer vacations. It is generally a low volume, volatile and not usually positive performance month.

Yields Skyrocket! Really?
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 6/25/15
It is hard to pick up a paper, read an investment blog (mine excluded), or listen to a financial news program without hearing about the global bond market rout. Yields (interest rates) on government bonds in the U.S. and Europe have been on the rise and the financial media is trying to whip everyone into a frenzy about it. Here is why I think you should be celebrating rather than worrying.

Using Investment Manager Styles to Navigate Markets
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 6/11/15
Investment manager styles, like markets, move in cycles. So as investment advisors, we try to identify where we are in the market cycle to choose the best managers. Decision making should not be binary – “I like the market or I don’t like the market,” with a resulting buy or sell decision. In downturns, the normal reaction is to sell out of the market rather than looking at how to stay in the market and become more defensive. In fact, being out of the market negatively impacts results over time.

Car Nut
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 5/11/15
I love cars, both new and old. I like to drive them, talk about them, watch them race and just about anything involving them. I also think cars can tell us a lot about people, investors and the economy. Last week, the monthly auto sales data were released and there were some interesting trends that tell us something about secular demographic trends, the impact of falling gas prices and how workers are feeling about their prospects.

Good Things To Life
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 4/21/15
Last Thursday, General Electric announced that they were selling a $26 billion real estate portfolio and substantially reducing the size of their financing arm, GE Capital. This announcement has a number of broader implications beyond GE’s own company and stock price. It may be an indication of what large multi-national companies must do at this point in the market cycle to show earnings growth.

A Body at Rest
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 3/23/15
As the temperature rises above 50 for the first time in several months, I am reminded of this Newtonian law that a body at rest will stay at rest unless an outside force acts on it. Perhaps the warm-up in weather is the “outside force” we all need to get moving again. I believe that the current market environment is similar to my body coming out of winter.

Mardi Gras Market
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 2/20/15
Geo-political concerns in the Middle East and Ukraine don’t seem to be able to keep the market down, nor do the tepid economic growth numbers coming from Europe and China. Finally, corporate earnings expectations have been moderated significantly for 2015 and that doesn’t seem to matter to stock prices either. Perhaps the explanation is in the sentiment.

The Race
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 11/4/14
While some may wish for a Democratically controlled Congress because we have a Democrat in the White House, the reality is that some dysfunction between Congress and the Administration is welcome by markets. Near-term, many believe that the regulatory environment created by a Democratic Senate and Administration creates uncertainty and restricts corporate growth. While that may be true, it is hard to argue with the stock market returns over the last several years. The reality is that markets appreciate some dysfunction in Washington.

Under the Magnifying Glass
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 10/28/14
Recent market volatility has investors trying to sort through the little things to determine what is most important to the future of asset prices. Securities markets move up and down on a daily basis based on many different factors, some more relevant than others. The markets during October have proven that little things can lead to greater volatility as investors attempt to sort out the most relevant facts from those with less meaning. Our objective, and that of our investment managers, is to sift through these details to discern what has relevance and what is noise during the trading day.

October is a Scary Month
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 10/16/14
The current environment for stock investors can be trying. Global cross currents regarding economic growth, employment, government policy, and corporate earnings have created the first test of investors mettle in almost two years. We have an opportunity to use current market events to review our investment plan and check our emotional temperature.

Finally, a Five Handle!
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 10/14/14
Last Fridays jobs report was significant in that for the first time since July of 2008 the unemployment rate dipped below 6%. The September report indicated that the unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.9%. While we have seen improvement in labor markets for some time now, the Fed still seems to want to take their time reducing stimulative policy.

Open Sesame
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 9/24/14
Often times, investors are interested in pursuing investments in the hottest asset class. The hype surrounding the Alibaba IPO is an example of how a sector gets a boost from a hot new stock. The fact that the stock traded up almost 40% in the first day of trading is an indication that the sector is hot. It is difficult not to want to add more capital to that portion of your portfolio that is performing best while ignoring the portion that isnt performing as well. Of course that is exactly what you are supposed to do and what rebalancing is all about.

From the Alps to the Tetons
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 8/27/14
Central bankers seem to be the focus once again. If the global economy were strong enough to stand on its own, we wouldnt spend every waking moment worrying about what Fed Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and her European Central Bank counterpart Mario Draghi are going to do next. The fact that these bankers are front and center again in investors minds, is a function of both how sluggish the global economy is and how persistent the hangover from the mid-2000s real estate party continues to be.

Mixed Signals
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 8/5/14
Over the weekend I had the opportunity to take in baseball tryouts. I know you are thinking it is August so what tryouts would be taking place in the middle of the season? These tryouts were for U-8 boys. For the uninitiated, this is when boys aged 7 and younger try out for next seasons teams. My son spent two days at a baseball camp and then finished yesterday with team tryouts. During tryouts there were six stations covering the fundamentals of the game.

You Don’t Have to Love Soccer
by Brian Andrew of Cleary Gull, 6/26/14
The FIFA World Cup (for soccer aka football) is in full swing. There are 32 teams from around the world treating a world-wide audience of nearly 2 billion to a great show of sport. The teams are competing for $576 million in prize money. And while the U.S. will not likely make it to the final match, the tournament does offer some insight into diverse economies around the globe and why we should consider international investments as a pillar in any portfolio.
27 results found.