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The Case for Active Management in ESG
by Scott Klimo, Bryce Fegley of Saturna Capital, 11/7/18

Perhaps the most dominant trend in the mutual fund industry over the past several years has been the rise of passively managed, index-tracking mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs), which have supplanted a large portion of actively managed assets under management.

What We Want and What We Get: Error Bias in Investing
by Bryce Fegley of Saturna Capital, 6/23/17

As we observe events in realms such as financial markets, politics, or weather, we tend to form beliefs — be they explicit or implicit beliefs — about cause and effect, or whether the events were positive or negative, good or bad. Science has formalized this process: testing a hypothesis with empirical data. One of the tradeoffs when evaluating beliefs in light of evidence, or a hypothesis in light of data, is the type of error we would prefer if our beliefs turn out to be wrong. In the investment realm, this bias can affect our beliefs and behaviors, such as our tolerance for risk and our allocation choices. Several examples will help illustrate this point.

Exchange Rate 101: A Primer For International Investors
by Bryce Fegley of Saturna Capital, 12/4/14
A solid grasp of exchange rates and how they impact various asset classes can help international investors make better-informed decisions. The asset class most likely to be impacted negatively by a strengthening dollar is non-dollar fixed-rate bonds.

Red Sky in the Morn', Junk Bond Investors Be Warn'd.
by Bryce Fegley of Saturna Capital, 6/24/14
Investor appetite for income has pushed yields and spreads on high-yield bonds to very low levels, while corporate borrowers have fed that demand with record issuance of new debt. On top of low yields and heavy issuance, bond dealers have retreated from corporate bonds in response to new financial regulations. As a result of these factors, we believe now is a particularly risky time to invest in high-yield bonds. Here we offer some of our suggestions for seeking income and yield with less risk.

End of An Era: 30 Years of Double-Digit Chinese Growth
by Bryce Fegley of Saturna Capital, 1/17/13
Slumping exports, lackluster domestic consumption, and slowing urban migration contribute to lower growth expectations for China. With Chinese manufacturing capacity now saturated relative to global demand, and developed economies facing the consequences of over-indebtedness, external tailwinds to China's growth have passed.

An Endgame for Japans Debt?
by Bryce Fegley of Saturna Capital, 11/15/11
The Japanese government's ability to extract itself from two decades of runaway debt has become all the more challenging in the face of its shrinking tax base, rising interest payments, and social security obligations, not to mention the aftermath of its earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disasters. The recent precedent of the country's dysfunctional political system does not bode well for making tough choices necessary to stabilize the debt. Of the possible consequences of the runaway debt, eventual monetization, high inflation, and currency devaluation are the most likely outcomes.

Bernanke Ducks as Food Prices Shoot Higher
by Peter Nielsen and Bryce Fegley of Saturna Capital, 3/24/11
As rising food prices gain prominence in media headlines worldwide, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke now finds himself deflecting accusations that the Fed's $600 billion "QE2" Treasury buying program is the main culprit of global food price inflation. In his February 18, 2011, speech to governors of the Group of Twenty in Paris,1 Bernanke completely rebuffed these claims and offered up other explanations as well, but nowhere in his speech did he concede any possibility that the Fed's QE2 program is playing a role.

Asian Emerging Markets Will Grow on You
by Peter Nielsen and Bryce Fegley of Saturna Capital, 2/23/11
A year has passed since Saturna put staff on the ground in the heart of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, at the offices of our subsidiary, Saturna Sdn. Bhd. As expected, we have gained valuable insight into the emerging markets of Asia. We find the key to unlocking the opportunities these markets have to offer is an understanding of the intersection of market structure, demographics, economic growth, and asset allocation. Our analysis of trends in these four areas reveals an economic environment with favorable prospects for long-term growth.
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