The market continues to trend higher on Goldilocks pixie dust.

The Federal Reserve is creating the potential for extreme bouts of volatility surrounded economic data releases.

The path for lower rates in the U.S. has finally arrived.

After market expectations spiked to nearly five interest rate cuts in 2024 based on disappointing labor market report early in the month, reassuring data in the form of Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims have quelled market Markets have eased expectations for interest rate cuts, pricing closer to four cuts as of the end of last week.

The Federal Reserve is being challenged with one of our most important tenets: levels versus momentum.

Macro drivers mixed with market narratives last week to sustain the volatility cocktail being served in July

The case for beginning to recalibrate rates in the S. is on a winning streak for getting stronger with each data print

We think all signs point to the labor market as the oracle – personal consumption supports earnings upside.

Much of the current decrease in the headline retail sales number can be attributed to the decline in gasoline prices at the pump.

JOLTS (job opening data) had a massive surprise, three standard deviations below consensus estimates, the driving job openings to unemployed workers ratio back to pre-pandemic levels.

The highlight of last week was a showdown between two of the major forces in the markets: AI earnings vs. economic data.

Last week was another week of records for major equity indices: The S&P500 broke to new highs; the DJIA breached 40,000.

Thursday marked the final trading day of the week, month and quarter. It seemed only fitting the two major data releases delivered the overarching message of 2024.

The likes of consumer resiliency based on the earliest readings on Black Friday sales and the degree to which the Artificial Intelligence theme continues support the idiosyncratic tendencies of the markets concentrated in the Magnificent 7.

The doves lined up last week guiding the S&P500 up 5.85%, marking the best week of performance for the year. A busy week of data began with the quarterly refunding announcement from the Treasury.

Last week was Super Bowl week for economists, with fresh guidance from the Fed, ECB, BoJ, as well as data releases on GDP and inflation. The economic data fireworks show was set against a busy week of earnings data, which acted as garnishes to the main course of economic data.

Economic reports and corporate data last week highlighted the cautious stance of corporations, contrasted against a resilient consumer, who continues to be propped up by strong demand in the labor market and increasing wages.