The Kansas City Fed’s annual Monetary Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole is a signature event for those of us who follow central banks. The conference typically doesn’t generate much front-page news: the subject matter is usually more technical and conceptual than a broad audience would appreciate. But 2020 is not a typical year.
The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s recovery from a record-breaking decline.
The first wave of the economic recovery has generally exceeded expectations, but the recent surges in COVID-19 cases could deliver a setback.
COVID-19’s path is evident everywhere we look: spending, saving, staffing, sentiment, and sports.
The journey to a full recovery will be a long one, but at least we’ve taken some initial steps.
Economic data shows mild improvement, but the road to recovery will be a long one.
Faster actions are better in fiscal policy, but that’s not the case for China’s foreign policy.
The pandemic is putting universities and their graduates to the test.
Major economies are easing restrictions to reboot economic activity. Unfortunately, they are faced with a difficult tradeoff between lives and livelihoods.
The Northern Trust Economics team gives a perspective on a tough outlook for U.S. growth and employment this year.
Economic activity is expected to recover in the second half of the year, but the shocks in some parts of the world could last for longer.
Economic data will reveal an incredible downturn.
Decisive measures taken today should help to keep the crisis from causing prolonged damage.
Growing policy responses reflect greater estimates of the costs of COVID-19.
Economic news will get worse before it gets better, but we expect the U.S. economy to pull through.
Can policymakers minimize economic disruptions from COVID-19?
The coronavirus outbreak is sending ripples through global supply chains and disrupting businesses.
The U.S. economy has been resilient in the face of uncertainty, but risks are growing.
A deep dive into the factors that brought inflation down and are keeping it low.
The U.S. Census is a vital research tool; the coronavirus is a vital risk.
A strong economy will help U.S. consumers meet their financial resolutions in the new year, while residents of France and Australia have bigger worries.
Tensions between Iran and the United States brings a stressful start to 2020.
Continued modest global growth in 2020 may be the best we can hope for.
Rate cuts and overnight operations were important developments this year. Where will the Fed go from here?
From freight volume to flight delays and real estate to recession risk, we share quick thoughts on a variety of economic subjects.
Growth Prospects and Challenges Ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
Wealth taxes are politically resonant but difficult to enact. Oil prices are steady despite disruptions, while the EU’s food exports face tariffs.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Are the latest Brexit and GSE proposals the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?
Deep U.S.-China divisions make a ‘phased’ deal our best hope for trade progress.
Exploring the survey that is the current cause for concern.
October will be a telling month for Brexit, the eurozone economy and the U.S.-China trade war.
Climate change is a risk for the global economy.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its growth outlook for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, Japan and China.
Global trade tensions are taking their toll, leaving Europe struggling for solutions.
U.S. consumer confidence is high, but confidence in China’s economic measurements is not.
Change can threaten, but it can create opportunity if we adapt.
Demand for cars is both slowing and shifting. How will automakers adapt?
The decade of the 1990s in India was an era of rapid change. The sudden rise of new choices and shifts in consumer preferences was stunning, in hindsight.
A change to global uncertainty will require a concrete settlement of key issues . While downside risks to the global outlook have not increased, they haven’t declined, either.
The march of demographics may be slow, but it is sure. And while the consequences of aging may seem far off into the future, they will be substantial. Unless we address them now, they will become much less manageable later.
How much longer can the Fed stay patient? We see a change coming.
The sudden escalation of trade tensions that have originated from Washington is casting doubt over the outlook. If the escalation continues, the global economy will continue to decelerate and recession risks will rise.
Many factors are holding down inflation, U.S. jobs growth continues to surprise and China’s bad loans are getting worse.
The economic slowdown that began in late 2018 has started to stabilize. Trade tensions and policy uncertainty took a toll on confidence and financial markets late last year, but both seem less threatening today. Financial conditions have eased as major central banks maintain a fairly accommodative stance amid a subdued inflation outlook.
We expect the USMCA to be ratified eventually. But it could take longer than anticipated, and the political environment across North America creates substantial uncertainty.
Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
