This isn’t the same China that greeted Donald Trump after his first win in 2016. The economy, once widely believed on a course to knock the US off its perch as the preeminent commercial power, has since revealed some acute vulnerabilities that don’t seem to be going away. And the president-elect seems to be gearing up for a trade war he no longer needs to fight.
Even with inflation well and truly on the way down after the most aggressive interest-rate tightening in a generation, central banks are averse to declarations of victory. That the pace of price increases has been reined in without a major economic downturn is an accomplishment that warrants some trumpeting.
Japan's currency is enjoying an epic rally, heading for the biggest quarterly advance in years. That's quite a shift from a few months ago, when yen bulls were few and far between. Who can claim credit for this turnaround?
After a bruising few years, Asian currencies have suddenly become fashionable again. But this enthusiasm is dependent on words and deeds far away. The direction of global markets is driven overwhelmingly by the US. For now, that means interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Forecasting anything, let alone something as complicated as the economy, is fraught. Stretches of decent growth and low inflation that look, in retrospect, like happy days, can be upended by unforeseen events. Covid, the descent into recession and the sharp rebound are just a few examples. Errors, unfortunately, are an unavoidable part of trying to map the future.
For South Korea’s economy, it’s not quite a case of first in, first out. But it could be close: Despite some bullish growth forecasts, interest-rate cuts are coming.
Worried that inflation is coming down too gradually? The Romans had a not-so-subtle solution: Anyone suspected of ratcheting up prices faced execution. If you’re currently anxious about declining fertility across today’s major economies, they had an answer for that, too: Celibacy was discouraged among women, Vestal Virgins excluded. Offenders might forfeit their inheritance.
Jerome Powell is Mr. Yen. He has been for some time, but it has taken a while for the world to catch on.
The hottest thing in global economics is an oldie but a goodie. This market darling is enjoying enviable growth and sucking in capital from around the world. It possesses a vibrant labor market and a currency that's not just a store of value, but increasingly seen as an ascendant strategic asset. And it’s not the China of yesteryear.
If all the tasks that made ancient Greece tick were automated — from churning out chariots to crafting ceramic vases — it wouldn’t transform the place into Singapore.
An unfortunate byproduct of the dollar’s unexpected surge has been the revival of a bogey that just won’t die: currency wars. The phrase gets thrown about during periods of dislocation in the foreign-exchange market and has the beauty of meaning whatever the person who utters it desires.
There’s just no getting past the supremacy of the dollar, much as skeptics of American influence wish for it or lonely yen bulls cry for relief. The greenback has been frequently tipped to retreat, only for it to blow away everything in front of it.
Japan is back, China is over. Only a few years ago, such an assertion would have been dismissed out of hand. The latter was on the road to economic dominance and the former languished, characterized by endless stimulus that produced little tangible benefit, and doomed by a shrinking population.
In the rapidly evolving outlook for interest rates, some things are still sacrosanct. The pace of price increases has slowed significantly, and the argument is now how much — rather than when — borrowing costs will be lowered this year.
For all the importance of China’s subpar recovery, the country's woes are notably absent from the plethora of projections and commentary that flow from the Federal Reserve these days. Judging from recent remarks, there's either no problem or nothing sufficiently grave to prod Chair Jay Powell to hint at switching gears. Give it time.
If this is what a bad year for the dollar looks like, I'll take it. Widespread predictions of a significant retreat after a bumper 2022 haven't come to pass.
Paul O’Neill, a former US Treasury secretary, said that if America ever dropped the strong-dollar policy, he would hire a brass band at Yankee Stadium to mark the proclamation.
In a year of unpleasant surprises from China's economy, here's a development we should have foreseen: The central bank lowered interest rates. With growth disappointing and prices declining, Tuesday's easing from the People's Bank of China ought to have been a no-brainer.
From China comes a discouraging new language. Leaders described their faltering economy as showing a “wavy pattern” with “bumps during progress.” Put politely, the message is that the country won't provide the lift for the global economy that was widely anticipated six months ago.
It seems 2023 is arriving early. The race to raise interest rates to levels that have a hope of quelling inflation is entering a less punishing phase.
As policy makers vie to claim the mantle of hawk-in-chief, spare a thought for what we like to think of as the recovery.
Hanging tough against Vladimir Putin was never going to be cost free. Energy prices are soaring, firms are pulling out of Russia and those that stay are at risk of nationalization. There’s concern about global food supplies. Recession chatter has started, even as the world economy is still mopping up from the last one.
Central banks have been a powerful tool to steady the global economy in crises past. Their ability — and willingness — to do so now is constrained. The terrain is tougher and the costs of a rescue are higher.
What once looked overzealous now appears prudent. Central banks that moved early to pare back stimulus and hike interest rates may have made the right call after all.
When it comes to inflation accelerating around the world, don't count on a swift response from the two most important economies. The U.S. and China are trapped by their own policy choices and domestic priorities. Neither has much appetite for an assault on price increases. Germany's calls for a clampdown are too late.
