The economy has held up remarkably well despite the Fed’s tightening program, but with two more hikes likely in 2023, the risk of a slowdown remains elevated.
Thanks to the recent banking crisis, the Fed’s “dual mandate” has taken on a new meaning. The increased economic uncertainty during the first quarter drove investors towards safer assets, boosting investment grade bonds.
The Fed remains singularly focused on containing inflation but has made little headway so far.
Despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening policy, we think inflation still has a ways to run, though we remain cautiously optimistic about the economy.
Now that the Fed has officially stopped referring to inflation as “transitory,” the question is whether they can bring it under control without slowing the economy. In our view, they have the right tools – reducing the balance sheet and raising the fed funds rate – they just need to trust their data and keep a steady hand on the wheel.
Interest rates were mixed in November, as shorter maturity yields continued to rise while longer maturity yields fell further. The continued flattening of the yield curve reflects the market’s expectation that the Fed will be more aggressive in their tapering of official purchases and potentially raise the fed funds target rate more quickly and aggressively than previously thought.
Interest rates were mixed in October, as shorter maturity yields rose while longer maturity yields fell. The dramatic flattening in the yield curve reflects the market expectation that the Fed will begin tapering its bond purchase program imminently and has pulled forward expectations for rate hikes once the taper is completed.
The investment grade market was relatively calm in the third quarter, but we are concerned about undercurrents lying beneath the surface. In particular, we feel the dual threats of persistent inflation and a less accommodative Fed have the potential to impact pricing over the near to medium term.
The Fed continues to assert that elevated inflation is largely due to “transitory factors,” but the Underlying Inflation Gauge, which is published by their own New York branch, tells a different story. To understand where inflation is heading, we advise investors to pay close attention to UIG data, even it if the Fed doesn’t.
U.S. Treasuries ended their 4-month streak of positive returns and falling yields in August. Intermediate maturity yields rose more than shorter and longer maturities, as the market began to see through the impact of the Delta variant and focus more on the Federal Reserve’s plan to scale back their bond buying program.
Longer term Treasury yields fell for a fourth consecutive month in July, as concerns around the resurgence of coronavirus weighed on forecasts for continued economic growth. Agency MBS underperformed investment grade corporates and Treasuries. While some inflation metrics set generational highs, and other economic data indicated a continued recovery, investors were focused on the potential impact of viral spread.
Despite a strengthening economy in the second quarter, investors were highly focused on the Federal Reserve’s response to the recent spike in inflation data.
Following the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Treasury curve flattened as the market reacted to a more aggressive hiking schedule than previously expected. Risk continued to perform well as investment grade (IG) corporates outperformed again and tightened through levels not seen since 2018. Economic data continues to improve showing the reopening remains on track, but investors remain focused on elevated levels of inflation.
Treasury yields fell again in May and credit spreads approached recent tights as the virus continued to recede, allowing the reopening of the economy to progress. Economic data was noisy this month, largely due to base effects, but confirms the ongoing trend of renewed growth and signs of inflation.
Inflation has been top of mind for investors throughout 2021, as a combination of supply chain disruptions and pent up demand have led to higher prices throughout the economy.
Investors aggressively sold off Treasuries in the first quarter in favor of risk assets. We think this is likely to continue as the economy strengthens and inflationary pressures build, and we are maintaining a defensive duration profile to protect against rising rates.
Treasury yields rocketed higher in February, with the move again concentrated in longer maturities. Volatility spiked as liquidity dried up in the Treasury market, especially after a very weak 7-year auction that briefly pushed 10-year Treasury yields to 1.60%. The news flow was largely the same direction: an improving economy, increased vaccine rollout with deaths and hospitalizations turning sharply lower, and a continued march toward a substantial fiscal stimulus plan.
Treasury yields continued to march higher in January, with the move again concentrated in longer maturities. Mortgage spreads tightened slightly, while corporate bond spreads were mostly mixed. The market remains stuck between the push/pull of the prospect for greater fiscal stimulus and ongoing vaccine rollout versus continued lockdowns and the greatest one-month mortality rate since the pandemic began nearly a year ago.
As the new year begins, the investment grade (IG) market faces multiple challenges, including a recovering economy, low yields, tight spreads, and record high duration. At the same time, market technicals remain favorable, fundamentals are improving, and there are attractive sectors in the index. Overall, we are modestly bullish about 2021 and feel there are compelling opportunities for those who know where to look.
Markets continued their recovery during the 3rd quarter, but the narrative transitioned from concerns about the pandemic to the U.S. election – a trend that we expect to continue in October. The outcome will likely have a material impact on both fiscal stimulus policies and Treasury yields.
While we appear to have averted the worst pandemic outcomes so far, a resurgence in recently reopened states shows that we are not yet out of the woods. In our view, the economy will not fully recover until there is a vaccine or a reliable treatment.
2019 proved to be a very strong year for almost all financial assets, as equities and bonds rallied in tandem. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) was compelled to play defense against a weaker global economy (particularly in Europe) and continued uncertainty related to the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.
The fixed income market benefited in the third quarter as both global growth fears and the trade dispute continued to drive uncertainty in financial markets. With Europe remaining in an economic rut and China showing signs of slowing from the protracted trade conflict, investors sought the safety of U.S. Treasuries, pushing up prices and reducing yields.
Fixed income markets will be hard pressed for an encore performance of the second quarter. Risk assets of all flavors rallied in conjunction with Treasury yields falling – whether this is causal or simply concurrent remains to be seen.
Seizing on the success the equity market had in forcing Federal Reserve (“Fed”) chairman Powell’s hand in January 2019, the bond market decided to take its own swing at dictating Fed policy.
2018 marked the end of an era for fixed income investors. The combined tailwinds of quantitative easing and an accommodative Fed policy that defined the past decade were replaced by rising rates and increased market volatility. The path forward for fixed income in 2019 is less certain than it has been at any time in recent memory.
During this presentation, Eddy Vataru, lead portfolio manager of the Osterweis Total Return Fund (OSTRX), will share his current economic outlook and provide practical insights into developing an investment grade strategy that is flexible enough to handle today’s new realities. Eddy will explain how to combine duration management, sector allocation, and security selection to respond to a wide range of market conditions as well as the risks that need to be considered. Finally, he will discuss how this type of strategy fits into client accounts.
2017 was a year characterized by low volatility, a flattening yield curve and narrowing corporate bond spreads. The economy grew modestly and the Federal Reserve (the Fed) began to pull back its monetary accommodation.
