Bond traders once again see Federal Reserve policymakers as more likely to cut interest rates by a half point than a quarter point at their meeting this week.
The bold bet from the likes of Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by a half-percentage-point this month faces its biggest test yet from Friday’s US jobs report.
Volatility is back — at least a little — heading in to a week filled with central bank interest-rate decisions and quarterly earnings for some of the world’s biggest companies.
Treasuries pared this week’s sharp losses Thursday after inflation gauges in the US first-quarter economic growth data were unexpectedly revised lower.
A rough start to the year for bond traders risks getting worse with the release of key US employment data on Friday. Treasury yields remain near their highest levels of 2024 ahead of the report, which is forecast to show that solid jobs growth moderated in March.
Risks are building for bond traders who’ve spent the last couple of weeks adding to bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year.
Treasuries held modest gains ahead of remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and key labor-market data, which are set to test bond investors’ conviction about interest-rate cuts in the US.
Investors in US Treasury debt are bracing for another auction, after sales of two- and five-year notes drew only middling demand — despite yields near the highest levels of the year.
Bond traders are turning their attention to the latest reading on inflationary pressures in the US economy as concern mounts the recent selloff has further to run.
A slate of US economic data is about to put the loftiest Treasury yields this year to the test.
The US government sold a record $42 billion of 10-year notes Wednesday at a lower-than-anticipated yield, soothing investor nerves after a recent rout and indicating confidence that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates.
Bond investors, still reeling from Treasuries’ worst two days in more than a year, are preparing for a new test on Wednesday when the government holds its biggest-ever sale of 10-year debt.
Treasury yields tumbled Thursday as a second day of declines for US financial stocks led traders to price in a more rapid pace of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
When the Treasury Department previews its note and bond auction sizes for the next three months on Jan. 31, some of the projected sizes are likely to be the biggest investors have ever seen.
The US 30-year yield climbed to its highest level so far this year Wednesday after poor demand for an auction of five-year notes, a week before the Treasury is expected to announce a heavier borrowing schedule for the February-to-April period.
Bond traders abandoned wagers that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March, pushing swap rates to levels consistent with only about 50% odds of a quarter-point reduction in the federal funds target during the first quarter.
A record amount of zero-coupon bonds were created in December as investors scrambled to lock in US government bond yields that were retreating from multiyear highs.
The US Treasury market posted its first annual gain since 2020 as slowing growth and inflation bolstered views that the Federal Reserve’s campaign of interest-rate increases is likely over.
The Treasuries market took another leg higher on Wednesday, as a slowdown in private-sector job creation further encouraged traders to bet on US interest-rate cuts ahead of broad labor-market data due Friday.
The Treasury market’s nascent rally is facing its next big test: a bond auction that will help gauge whether investors are confident 2023’s selloff is over once and for all.
On Monday, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed over 5%, a 16-year high. It’s a level few would have predicted during the long run of rock-bottom interest rates that followed the Great Financial Crisis.
Bond investors’ concern over a potential US recession deepened after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled policymakers may keep pushing interest rates higher.
The market for wagers on the course of Federal Reserve policy shows that traders now expect the US central bank’s policy rate will peak in September, where they previously looked for it to crest in July.
Wall Street bond dealers are moving rapidly to the sidelines of US Treasury auctions — the very activity that defines their status at the heart of the world’s biggest bond market.
Three months after the Federal Reserve stopped reinvesting all of the maturing Treasury securities in its portfolio -- allowing $30 billion a month to run off -- its holdings of the debt ought to be lower by $90 billion.
One of the US bond market’s most widely watched indicators of potential recession risk has reached levels last seen in 2007.
Bond traders are boosting expectations for U.S. inflation to levels not seen in over a decade amid concern supply-chain bottlenecks and resurgent consumer demand will keep lifting the cost of goods and services.
Long-term Treasury rates tumbled to the lowest levels in months on Monday as the spread of the delta coronavirus variant called into question optimistic assumptions about economic recovery, also touching off a global stock market slump.
Thomas Costerg doesn’t usually go to bed with a computer, but he couldn’t help himself Thursday night after what had just happened in the Treasury market.
The conventional wisdom that inflation will be rekindled in the U.S. -- ending the massive Treasuries rally and driving up yields -- is bunk, according to a Texas fund manager whose three-decade bullish stance on bonds propelled another banner year in 2020.
For the first time in two years, bond investors are betting that U.S. inflation will average close to 2% per year over the coming decade.
