Markets are convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is going to pause its interest rate campaign after it finalizes its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, September 20.
There has been lots of speculation lately regarding China’s economic “decline” or potential economic “perils,” so much so that newspaper articles about the coming demise of China’s miracle economic growth over the previous decades continue to take (our) time away from other, perhaps, more important topics.
Last week we changed our economic forecast because the economy has remained stronger than we expected. We delayed the start of the recession to the first quarter of 2024 rather than the last quarter of 2023.
Watching coverage of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit in South Africa this week made us wonder why the members of the BRICS decided to name the section, in which Vladimir Putin was addressing the conference by video conference, “BRICS BUSINESS FORUM,” in English, yes?
We have heard lots of commentary on the student loan repayment issues facing almost 44.5 million Americans. Some of these commentaries are correct but there are others that miss the mark.
Once again, markets are taking the elevator while economic data takes the stairs.
For now, and according to the June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) ‘dot-plot,’ the Fed still has one more 25 basis point increase for the federal funds rate before the end of this year.
The question many economists, as well as market participants, asked themselves after the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was why the Federal Reserve (Fed) paused its federal funds rate hike campaign if they were going to increase it again in July anyway.
Mortgage rates are the highest they’ve been in over 30 years, keeping home affordability in unprecedented territory. However, mortgage rates above 7% aren’t the only factor keeping home prices high.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes note that while it is taking longer to bring inflation down, the Fed will continue to conduct monetary policy to reach its target rate.
The U.S. economy grew at a more-than-expected 2.0% annualized rate of growth during the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter. In some sense, this rate of economic growth makes a little bit more sense than the previously reported 1.3% rate...
The Federal Reserve (Fed) still has a very tough job ahead to bring inflation down to its 2% target over the long run while facing pressures from markets, which have a very different timetable than the Fed.
This week’s inflation numbers were mostly positive and benign for the U.S. economy as well as for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and confirms our view that, at least for now, the Fed is done increasing interest rates for this monetary tightening cycle.
If there was a message the Federal Reserve (Fed) wanted to make clear after the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 3, it was that it reserves the right to remain hawkish.
The current Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) tightening cycle is approaching an end. This has been one of the most forceful as well as the fastest tightening cycle in history. However, because the federal funds rate was well below the neutral federal funds rate, the time it has been above that neutral level has not been that long.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine the factors which will contribute to the U.S. economy's path forward in 2023.
Many have been asking this question since earlier this year, a question that has no easy answer. As economists – us included – continue to forecast the most ‘telegraphed’ recession in history, it is important to point to those things that make this economic cycle very different from past economic cycles.
While economists have been lowering their employment forecast month over month over month, the U.S. labor market has continued to disappoint those forecasts and has remained relatively strong as well as relatively stable, with jobs growing at an average of 392,000 per month during 2022.
The U.S. economy is weak, as GDP numbers in both the second quarter and the third quarter have shown. The fundamental reason why the U.S. economy grew 2.6% during the third quarter of the year was because Net Exports, which is exports of goods and services...
With mortgage rates more than doubling from ~3% to over 7% today the difference in cost between buying a home twelve months ago compared to today is very big.
We believe that the Fed is going to increase the federal funds rate by 75 bps.
