Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.5% in August and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year.

With the release of August's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.18% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to -0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.76% nominal and 3.17% real.

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation slowed in August. Core PCE, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 0.1% from July and slowed to 3.9% year-over-year, the lowest reading in over two years but still above the Fed's 2% target rate.

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of September 15th, the index was at 9.655, up 2.343 from the previous week.

Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q2 GDP third estimate, all four components made positive contributions.

The third estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.1%, a deceleration from 2.2% for the Q1 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.60%, a decrease from 1.81% for the Q1 headline number.

We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.

The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index declined somewhat in September and the future outlook fell slightly. The composite index came in at -8, down from 0 in August, while the future outlook decreased to 1 from 2 last month.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index plummeted 7.1% in August to 71.8, a larger decline than the expected -0.8% decrease. This is the lowest reading for the index since April 2020 and is the second lowest figure in the historical series. Pending home sales are down 18.7% compared to one year ago.

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in Q2 2023, according to the third estimate. The latest estimate is consistent with growth expectations and is a slightly slower pace than the Q1 2023 GDP final estimate of 2.2% (revised).

In the week ending September 23, initial jobless claims inched up to a seasonally adjusted level of 204,000. This is an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 202,000 and lower than the forecast of 215,000.

The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

Bitcoin's price was essentially unchanged from last week and is remains up ~60% year to date. Here's the latest charts on three of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share through 9/26.

New orders for manufactured durable goods unexpectedly rose in August, coming in at $284.75B. This is a 0.2% increase from the previous month and is better than the expected 0.5% decline. The series is up 3.5% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were up 0.4% from the previous month and up 1.1% from one year ago.

Gas prices inched down from last week but remain elevated. As of September 25, the price of regular and premium gas fell by 4 and 2 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $89.68, down 1.0% from last week.

Fifth district manufacturing activity improved in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index increased from -7 in August to 5 in September, marking its 1st positive reading in 17 months. This month's reading is higher than the -6 forecast.

The August release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000 units, below the forecast of 700,000. New home sales were down 8.7% month-over-month from a revised rate of 739,000 in July but up 5.8% from one year ago. The median home price is now at $430,300, down $6,300 from July on a nominal basis.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® declined again in September, marking two consecutive months of decline. The index dropped to 103.0 from August's upwardly revised reading of 108.7. This month's reading was worse than expected, falling below the 105.5 forecast.

Home prices continued to trend upwards in July as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a fifth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.9% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 0.1% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.4% and the YoY was reduced to -7.0%.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) continued its climb in July, coming in at 409.5. U.S. house prices increased by 0.8% from the previous month and by 4.6% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.8% month-over-month and up 3.4% year-over-year.

Six of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through September 25, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 25.23%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 13.42% while India's BSE SENSEX finished in third with a YTD gain of 7.72%.

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for September. The latest general business activity index came in at -18.1, down 0.9 from last month. This is the first monthly decline in the general business activity index in the past 4 months and marks the 17th consecutive month it has been in contraction territory.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.16 in August from +0.07 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, inched up to -0.14 in August from -0.15 in July.

The S&P 500 struggled for most of the week as the index posted its third consecutive weekly loss. The index is currently up 12.97% year to date and is 9.93% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 22, 2023 at 4.44%, the 2-year note ended at 5.10%, and the 30-year at 4.53%.

The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for August is 3.0%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.3%, unchanged from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.3%.

August's ZHVI came in at $349,770, up 0.47% from July and up 0.40% from August 2022. However after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.09% month-over-month and -6.45% year-over-year. Nominal home values have increased for 5 straight months while "real" home values have only increased for 3 straight months.

Existing home sales continued their downward trend in August as prices remained elevated. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell by 0.7% from July to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million units. This figure came in lower than the expected 4.10 million. Existing home sales are down 15.3% compared to one year ago.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for the 17th consecutive month in August as economic uncertainty and recession fears continue to grow. The index dropped 0.4% from last month to 105.4, the index's lowest reading since June 2020.

The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped back into negative territory indicating a decline in activity. In September, the index fell to -13.5, coming in below the forecast of -0.7. The six-month outlook remained positive for a fourth consecutive month at 11.1.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

New residential housing starts plummeted to their slowest pace since 2020 according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In August, housing starts dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.283 million, falling short of the forecasted 1.440 million. This marks an 11.3% decrease from July and a 14.8% decline compared to one year ago.

New residential building permits jumped to their fastest pace in almost a year according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In August, building permits reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.543 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.440 million. This marks a 6.9% increase from July but reflects a 2.7% decrease compared to the same period last year.

FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through August. The latest debt level fell for the first time since April to $689.19 billion. Margin debt is down 2.9% month-over-month (MoM) and up 0.2% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 3.3% MoM and down 3.3% YoY.

High mortgage rates continue to weaken builder confidence. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 5 points from last month to 45, the index's second straight monthly decline.

Industrial production increased for a second straight month in August, surpassing expectations yet again. On a monthly basis, industrial production rose 0.4%, outpacing the projected 0.1% growth. Additionally, compared to one year ago, industrial production showed an increase of 0.25%.

The September preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 67.7, down 1.8 (-2.6%) from the August final. This morning's reading was below the forecast of 69.1. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 20.4% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) of 85.1 and 19.4% below its geometric mean of 84.0.

This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 20.9 points from last month to 1.9. This morning's reading was better than the forecast of -10.0 and pushes the index back into expansion territory.

Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC based on the Current Population Survey, a joint undertaking of the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes annual data from 1984 to 2022. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.

Month-over-month nominal retail sales in August were up 0.6% and up 2.47% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.1% MoM and down 1.19% year-over-year.

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August revealed a 0.6% increase in headline sales compared to July, marking the fifth consecutive month consumer spending has increased. The latest figure surpassed expectations of 0.2% monthly growth. Core sales (ex Autos) also exceeded expectations by registering 0.6% growth in August, defying the forecasted 0.2% increase.

Wholesale inflation rose more than expected in August as producer prices increased for a second straight month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.7% month-over-month, its largest monthly increase since June 2022 (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated for a second straight month from 0.8% in July to 1.6% in August (n.s.a).

The median US income in 2022 was $74,580, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 233% rise over the 38-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2022 dollars, the 1984 median is $56,780, and the increase drops to 31%.

This month, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2022. Last year the median (middle) average household income fell by 2.3% to $74,580. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

What is the value of education for household income? The Census Bureau's annual survey data for 2022 published in earlier this month gives us some interesting insights into this question. The median income for all households with a householder age 25 and older was $75,980.

Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data, issued earlier this month, with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2022.