Last week's jobs report hit a "sweet spot" for the markets, confirming enough economic cooling to signal potential Fed rate cuts without yet sparking fears of a recession. I expect a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed this week and Powell may set us up for a data-dependent pause in December.
This week’s economic indicators continue to reflect a resilient U.S. economy despite the ongoing pressure from higher interest rates. Jobless claims dropped to 227,000, indicating a steady labor market. Durable goods orders came in strong, aligning with estimates, and GDP growth for Q3 is expected to come in between 3% and 3.25%, a robust figure by most standards.
The latest economic data reveals a resilient economy, led by strong retail sales and a surprising drop in jobless claims. Despite some weakness in manufacturing, industrial production, and housing, overall economic strength is reflected in the projected third-quarter real GDP growth, expected to come in at a robust 3%—largely driven by productivity gains. This productivity led rebound is very positive and this confirms that despite tighter monetary conditions, the real economy remains strong.
This past week saw a notable surge in the stock market, pushing it to all-time highs, despite mixed economic data. Inflation figures, jobless claims, and sentiment reports have been uneven, but markets remain resilient, with the VIX hovering around 20—a sign that fear persists among investors.
The jobs report closed last week with robust read outs of an official number that beat economist expectations. Below the surface, however, hours worked fell to levels often associated with recessions. This juxtaposition of more workers clocking fewer hours suggests that while employment figures are up, the quantity of work didn’t expand much.
The M2 money supply growth rate in the U.S. accelerated, marking the first time the monthly change exceeded a 5% annualized rate after several months of more moderate increases. A 5% money supply growth is a desirable target, as it reflects 2-3% growth in the economy with 2% inflation. Thus, the uptick in money growth is reassuring and supports the possibility that we will avert a hard landing for the economy.
I was pleasantly surprised by the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to begin the easing cycle with a 50-basis point (bp) cut as the real economic data came in relatively stronger than expected.
Last week’s big day in the markets and for the economy was on Friday. I characterized the jobs report as being weakish—not disastrous but certainly not strong. The payroll report came in a bit short of expectations with weak lowered revisions to past reports, and although the unemployment rate adjustment was expected, the U-6 unemployment rate, a broader measure of labor underutilization, continued to rise indicating underlying weakness in the job market.
This week’s data reflects the resilience of the U.S. economy. Currently, the economy is holding steady with jobless claims in the 230,000 range and recent inflation data showing stability. Friday’s inflation report was essentially at expectations and indicates that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will make a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting. Whether the cut is 25 or 50 will depend mostly on this week’s employment report.
Powell’s remarks in Jackson Hole were more dovish than I anticipated. Powell did not hedge; the clear direction of policy was lowering rates. The focus of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) narrative was shifting away from inflation risk to employment.
