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Value Oriented Bond Management Amid Economic Chaos
by Jerry Paul of ICON Advisers, 6/1/23

While markets are often efficient, the current market environment exposes a number of select areas within the bond market that exhibit less efficient behavior. Investors taking a value-oriented bond management approach may find ways to exploit the inefficiencies.

Real Interest Rates: The Mystery of Low to Non-Existent Real Returns
by Jerry Paul of ICON Advisers, 1/29/18

This paper explores why real returns have stayed persistently low in recent years and why they may continue to stay low for the foreseeable future.

Value Oriented Bond Management
by Jerry Paul, Zach Jonson of ICON Advisers, 3/2/15
Equity investors can be categorized into a broad range of equity strategies, including valuation-based approaches, whereas bond investors generally think in terms of interest rates and duration management. Professional investment managers have been taught that the market is efficient and while this may often be true, we believe there are a number of select areas within the bond market that exhibit less efficient behavior. This paper will discuss these potential inefficiencies and how “value oriented” bond management looks to exploit the inefficiencies. First we need to define “traditi

Behavioral Finance and the Bond Market
by Jerry Paul, Zach Jonson of ICON Advisers, 5/7/14
Over the last decade the concept of behavioral finance has received increased recognition in both the academic world and with investors. Modern Portfolio Theory makes three distinct assumptions: investors are rational, markets are efficient, and expected returns are purely a function of risk. In contrast, followers of behavioral finance generally believe investors are less than perfect and subject to many emotional biases. Said differently, behavioral finance differs from traditional finance in that it focuses on how investors actually behave, rather than theorizing how they should behave.

Interest Rate Outlook - "Old Normal"
by Jerry Paul, Zach Jonson of ICON Advisers, 2/19/14
Contrary to a popular belief that interest rates are destined to rise significantly, at ICON we believe we may be re-entering the "old normal" where the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield remains between 2%-4% for an extended period of time. As can be seen in the following chart of interest rates since 1871, with a few exceptions this is where interest rates traded prior to the mid-1960s. From this perspective, the late 1970s appear to be unusual and the decline of the last 32 years is simply a return to normal, where rates can remain for many years in a setting of slower growth and low inflation.
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