A near-total ban on imports of Russian crude into the European Union is finally hitting Russia’s oil revenue. Concerns that it would provide the Kremlin with a windfall to fund its war in Ukraine have been confounded — for now.

Oil markets are broken. Extreme volatility and a lack of liquidity mean that crude futures have become disconnected from tight physical oil markets. At least that’s what some loud voices in the oil world are telling us.

Recent revisions to oil demand forecasts aren’t as bullish as they might appear. Don’t get too excited about prices going up just yet.