How will the U.S. dollar respond to Federal Reserve rate cuts? The factors that have supported a strong dollar for years remain largely intact.
Policymakers indicated that more interest rate cuts were likely in coming months.
While the pace of Federal Reserve cuts is in question, all roads lead to lower interest rates.
Bond prices whipsawed over the past month as volatility spiked across markets. What's next for fixed income markets?
What the Fed's monetary-policy tools signal about the market.
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the July meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year.
As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the June meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year if inflation declines.
Looking into the second half of the year, we are optimistic that returns will be stronger, but also expect volatility to remain elevated.
Historically, the level of U.S. debt has had no correlation with the performance of the stock or bond markets.
Inflation data has continued to fuel uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates. It's a question with global implications.
As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the May meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year if inflation declines.
There are signs that some previous "rolling recessions" are starting to turn into rolling recoveries.
Emerging-market local-currency bonds have rallied sharply since last October, along with other risky segments of the global bond market. However, navigating the market can be challenging.
The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates likely will move lower, but perhaps not as quickly as markets had been expecting.
Sentiment data is beginning to match relatively strong "hard" economic data.
Although a strong economy has changed expectations about the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, we still see room for the Federal Reserve to cut by three-quarters of a point this year.
Economic data has provided encouragement for both stock market bulls and bears.
With the Federal Reserve poised to begin cutting interest rates this year, the dollar may drift generally downward. However, its performance against individual currencies may vary widely.
The decision to hold the federal funds rate steady was in line with expectations, but the accompanying statement and projections indicate a shift toward easing in 2024.
Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked. We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.
Treasury yields have dropped as weak economic data suggests the Federal Reserve may begin cutting the federal funds rate target earlier than previously expected.
While surface-level economic data appear resilient, details below the surface are mixed.
As the Federal Reserve signals it will keep interest rates higher for longer, the market appears to be reflecting the uncertainty about the path of policy going forward.
Expectations of "higher for longer" U.S. interest rates has helped drive the dollar's recent rally.
The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
We expect yields to fall later this year and into 2024 as inflation continues to cool.
Will the economy roll into a formal recession, or is a recovery underway? It's a close call.
The surprise move takes the rating to AA+ from AAA.
In a unanimous decision, Federal Reserve policymakers raised the federal funds rate to 5.5%, the highest point since 2001.
As summer temperatures peak, inflation just won't completely cool down. The question is how much more the Federal Reserve should do about it.
Now that short-term Treasury yields have reached 5%, further upside is likely to be limited.
Sometimes it feels like the economy and markets are on different tracks.
Despite high volatility in the bond market during the first half of the year, what's surprising is how much didn't change.
Political brinkmanship in Washington adds to concerns about the economy.
The central bank likely won't have enough reason to hike rates again this cycle. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see one or two rate cuts later this year.
What does a potential change in Federal Reserve policy mean for markets and the economy?
Investors continue to seek signs of a change in season—and clues about how the Federal Reserve might react to it.
Inflation trends are moving in a favorable direction, but the change is likely too slow for the Fed to take its foot off the brake anytime soon.
A trifecta of factors support the dollar, including the relatively strong performance of the U.S. economy, tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and safe-haven buying.
The Federal Reserve's pledge to curb inflation appears to have resonated with the market.
The Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate, to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%, its first rate hike since December 2018.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine overturned a lot of assumptions about the near-term direction of the global economy.
In recent weeks, it has felt like the U.S. stock market slips a gear every so often, dropping sharply as investors search for traction in uncertain terrain.
The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.
Some of the market’s recent pressures are showing signs of easing.
Ever since the Federal Reserve started hinting it was planning to end its ultra-loose monetary policy, bond yields have been falling. That it happened in a booming economy with the highest inflation readings in nearly 40 years has taken a lot of investors and analysts by surprise.
The bond market has been in hibernation for months, and investors may have become complacent about risks.
Now that the dollar is near the year’s highs, can the rally continue? We believe it can in the near term, although our longer-term view is more nuanced. Here’s what we see ahead.
