Stocks have rebounded since the White House delayed steep tariffs that were announced in early April, but trade policy remains a potential driver of volatility.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.
Historically the United States dollar strengthens when U.S. Treasury yields rise. But the reverse happened in April after the White House announced widespread tariffs.
The combination of slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation, combined with uncertainty about U.S. tariff policy, is keeping investors cautious.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady and signaled two rate cuts this year, despite expecting inflation to remain elevated.
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
Treasury yields have been falling for weeks. Yet inflation expectations remain high and recent growth data have been fairly strong—not a traditional backdrop for declining yields. What's happening?
Could the U.S. dollar lose its place as the world's reserve currency? Despite a long-term trend toward currency diversification, we don't see the dollar losing dominance anytime soon.
After cutting rates at the past three meetings, it looks like the Federal Reserve has reached a plateau.
Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.
With economic growth rising at a stronger rate than expected for this part of the cycle and inflation holding above the 2.0% target, the Fed appears more cautious about the need for rate cuts.
The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates and the risk of higher inflation and federal debt levels.
How will the U.S. dollar respond to Federal Reserve rate cuts? The factors that have supported a strong dollar for years remain largely intact.
Policymakers indicated that more interest rate cuts were likely in coming months.
While the pace of Federal Reserve cuts is in question, all roads lead to lower interest rates.
Bond prices whipsawed over the past month as volatility spiked across markets. What's next for fixed income markets?
What the Fed's monetary-policy tools signal about the market.
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the July meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year.
As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the June meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year if inflation declines.
Looking into the second half of the year, we are optimistic that returns will be stronger, but also expect volatility to remain elevated.
Historically, the level of U.S. debt has had no correlation with the performance of the stock or bond markets.
Inflation data has continued to fuel uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates. It's a question with global implications.
As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the May meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year if inflation declines.
There are signs that some previous "rolling recessions" are starting to turn into rolling recoveries.
Emerging-market local-currency bonds have rallied sharply since last October, along with other risky segments of the global bond market. However, navigating the market can be challenging.
The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates likely will move lower, but perhaps not as quickly as markets had been expecting.
Sentiment data is beginning to match relatively strong "hard" economic data.
Although a strong economy has changed expectations about the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, we still see room for the Federal Reserve to cut by three-quarters of a point this year.
Economic data has provided encouragement for both stock market bulls and bears.
With the Federal Reserve poised to begin cutting interest rates this year, the dollar may drift generally downward. However, its performance against individual currencies may vary widely.
The decision to hold the federal funds rate steady was in line with expectations, but the accompanying statement and projections indicate a shift toward easing in 2024.
Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked. We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.
Treasury yields have dropped as weak economic data suggests the Federal Reserve may begin cutting the federal funds rate target earlier than previously expected.
While surface-level economic data appear resilient, details below the surface are mixed.
As the Federal Reserve signals it will keep interest rates higher for longer, the market appears to be reflecting the uncertainty about the path of policy going forward.
Expectations of "higher for longer" U.S. interest rates has helped drive the dollar's recent rally.
The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
We expect yields to fall later this year and into 2024 as inflation continues to cool.
Will the economy roll into a formal recession, or is a recovery underway? It's a close call.
The surprise move takes the rating to AA+ from AAA.
In a unanimous decision, Federal Reserve policymakers raised the federal funds rate to 5.5%, the highest point since 2001.
As summer temperatures peak, inflation just won't completely cool down. The question is how much more the Federal Reserve should do about it.
Now that short-term Treasury yields have reached 5%, further upside is likely to be limited.
Sometimes it feels like the economy and markets are on different tracks.
Despite high volatility in the bond market during the first half of the year, what's surprising is how much didn't change.
Political brinkmanship in Washington adds to concerns about the economy.
The central bank likely won't have enough reason to hike rates again this cycle. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see one or two rate cuts later this year.
What does a potential change in Federal Reserve policy mean for markets and the economy?
