Is a stock market correction coming before the Santa Claus rally at the end of the year?
I previously discussed a slate of recessionary indicators with high correlations to recessionary onsets. However, as we head into 2024, many Wall Street economists predict a “soft landing” or “no recession” outcome for the economy.
As I wrote this blog, the S&P 500 index is up roughly 17% year-to-date. Most likely, your portfolio isn’t. This is a common frustration among many investors in the market this year in particular.
Are you an “investor” or a “speculator?”
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is arguably one of the most important and overlooked economic indicators.
Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied sharply following the November FOMC policy meeting.
Despite substantially tighter monetary policy, the strength of jobs and retail sales stumped expectations of a recessionary downturn in 2022.
While often difficult, investing rules can help us maintain our focus and investment discipline in volatile or uncertain markets.
Economists no longer expect a recession. Such was according to a recent WSJ survey of Wall Street economists.
The “pain trade” continues to be higher into year-end.
While the article focuses mainly on the rise in bond yields, it applies to several current market events.
Restrictive monetary conditions, from higher yields and tighter lending conditions, are the Fed’s “Waterloo.”
As the “soft landing” narrative grows, the risk of a “crisis” event in the economy increases. Will the Fed trigger another crisis event? While unknown, the risk seems likely as the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative is compromised by lagging economic data.
Psychology in markets is always fascinating. In February 2009, I wrote “8 Reasons For A Bull Market.” While in hindsight, it is easy to see that was the right call, overall, psychology was highly negative at the time.
While bond yields have risen sharply lately, fund flows into bonds tell two very different stories.
Once again, due to the ongoing lack of fiscal responsibility in Washington, the markets and the economy faced a Government shutdown.
The Fed’s “soft landing” hopes are likely overly optimistic. Such was the context of the recent #BullBearReport, which discussed the long record of the Fed’s economic growth projections.
“Compound market returns.” During bullish markets, there is inevitably a regurgitation of this myth that was contrived to extract capital from retail investors and place it in the hands of Wall Street.
While September has been a bit sloppy so far, will further weakness in October weigh on investor sentiment before the seasonally strong period begins?
The hit TV series “That 70s Show” aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living in Wisconsin in the late 70s.
The term “Bond Vigilantes” is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, the American West formed self-appointed groups, or committees, to seize the duties of law enforcement and judicial authority in situations when citizens found law enforcement lacking or inadequate.
Okay, I took a little poetic license, but the point is that while we try, predictions of the future are difficult at best and impossible at worst.
Since the beginning of the year, economic data has continued to defy the recession calls of 2022.
Mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023. The question is, why? After all, many other great companies have arguably much better valuations and fundamentals.
Powell’s recent Jackson Hole Summit speech was mainly as expected. Well, except for the part where Powell obfuscated the truth behind the surge in inflation.
About once a year, I have to address the issue of chasing the “10 Best Days” of the year.
Fitch’s recent downgrade of the U.S. debt rating alarmed investors as the deficit and debt steadily increased. The downgrade sent 10-year Treasury bond yields above 4%, causing concern about America’s deteriorating financial condition.
Is a stock market rally coming? I think that is most likely the case. However, to understand why, we must review what we said at the beginning of July in “Complacency Seems Overly Complacent.”
Since the beginning of 2022, the media has regularly warned a recession is coming.
Government bonds or stocks? If you were picking an asset class to outperform over the next 18-24 months, which would you choose?
Tax receipts are falling, which has historically preceded economic recessions.
There is a rhythm to the markets, and market cycle lows support bull market recoveries. Recently, Ed Yardeni made a bold prediction that the S&P 500 index could hit a high of 5400 in 2024.
Such is the latest rationalization to support the “bull market” narrative.
Of course, hindsight is always 20/20. Last year there were many reasons to be bearish. Things were seemingly so bad, with everyone expecting a recession, that there was nowhere to go but up.
While Washington continues a seemingly unbridled spending spree under the assumption “more spending” is better, debts and deficits matter. To better understand the impact of debt and deficits on economic growth, we must know where we came from.
No matter what happens, financially or economically, there is always a high number of companies regularly beating Wall Street estimates.
ESG scoring and mandates remain a subject we have contested since it sprang to life in 2020. The push of “woke activism” on, and by companies, to meet nebulous or artificial standards has led to various bad outcomes.
The volatility index is so low it has to go higher eventually. Such seems obvious, but this year, despite the banking crisis, higher interest rates, and slowing economic data, investors continue to abandon hedges amid bullish optimism.
There is much debate as of late on the current market cycle. Is it a bear market? Maybe. But what if this is just a correction within a 40-year-long secular bull market cycle?
Does stock risk decline the longer the holding period is? It’s a great question and something I received a comment about.
Millions of young Americans will face the end of the student loan payment moratorium this summer. Why is this happening now, after a three-year break from payments?
Is the recent rally a “bull trap,” or are we in a new “bull market?” Such was a question I recently received on Twitter. Of course, understanding the term “bull trap” is needed for those not deep into technical analysis.
“Signs” was a song by the Five Man Electrical Band in 1970 about the hippie movement. The song came to mind as I was looking at the economic data recently.
The current market speculation surrounding artificial intelligence (A.I.) has garnered everyone’s attention.
“It’s a ‘New Bull Market’!” Over the past few days, the call of a new bull market has plastered headlines and media commentary.
Bullish sentiment has surged as the “Fear Of Missing Out,” or FOMO, kicked in in recent weeks. It is somewhat interesting to write this blog, given that we discussed the exact opposite roughly one year ago.
The Eurozone just entered a recession as the region posted two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The manner in which it entered a recession is a bit quirky.
In several recent blog posts and weekly Bull Bear Reports, we discussed our concern over the narrow breadth of the rally in 2023.
Lately, we discussed macro-related market issues such as the” A.I., chase,” but a technical review can help manage shorter-term risks. Currently, the debate is about the market rally from the October lows. Is it a resumption of the 2009 bull market trend or an extended bear market rally?
Could monetary conditions be supportive of the “soft landing” scenario? While the “recession” versus “no recession” debate rages, there is a precedent for a “soft landing” scenario. Such is where the economy slows substantially but avoids a deeper contraction.