Bond traders who struggled to predict how high the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates are finding the way down just as vexing.
US Treasuries gained and traders ramped up their bets that the Federal Reserve will opt for a supersized interest-rate cut this month after a mixed report on the US labor market.
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
There’s no shortage of market-moving events on the docket to keep Wall Street busy right now.
It only takes a quick glance at the US bond curve to realize something is off. One Treasury security — the 20-year — is detached from the rest of the market. It hovers at yields that are far higher than those on the bonds surrounding it — the 10-year and the 30-year.
A major rally in the $27 trillion Treasury market is laying bare anxiety that the US economy is sliding into recession and the Federal Reserve will need to start aggressively cutting interest rates.
The bond-market rally escalated Friday after a report showed that job growth slowed sharply last month, further stoking speculation that the Federal Reserve will start aggressively cutting interest rates to keep the economy from stalling.
The US Treasury left its quarterly issuance of longer-term debt unchanged for the second straight time, and maintained its guidance that it doesn’t expect to need increasing issuance of notes and bonds for “several quarters.”
History is on the side of stock and bond bulls as Federal Reserve officials kick off a two-day policy meeting.
Treasury yields tumbled after benign inflation data renewed confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year.
US Treasuries gained, pushing yields lower, after a mixed report on the US labor market left traders holding tight to bets that Federal Reserve officials will lower interest rates this year.
It took much of the first half of the year for Treasury bond investors to fall in line with a Federal Reserve signaling higher-for-longer interest rates. Now, as they weigh the timing of a second-half pivot, they must also contend with potential wild-card risks from a hotly contested presidential race.
Just as optimism is growing among investors that a rally in US Treasuries is about to take off, one key indicator in the bond market is flashing a worrying sign for anyone thinking about piling in.
US Treasuries are on the brink of breaking even during a roller-coaster first half of the year.
Bond traders who have come to terms with the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates through 2024 are looking toward this week’s Federal Reserve meeting for clues on how to game out 2025 and beyond.
Treasury yields surged as surprise strength in the US labor market forced traders to pare back their wagers on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year.
Global bond investors are coming to terms with the likelihood that interest rates are going to stay high for the foreseeable future.
Nothing has been setting the US bond market’s direction this year more than the monthly inflation figures. This week will be no exception.
For the first time in nearly a generation, fixed income is living up to its name.
Treasuries surged and traders ramped up bets on how soon the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates this year after a US labor-market report trailed estimates.
Treasury yields reached their highest levels of the year Monday — where they swiftly attracted buyers — as traders decided two Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts are likelier than three this year.
A rough start to the year for bond traders just got worse as data showed a buoyant US labor market with few of the stresses that could prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s increasing focus on protecting the job market is encouraging a swath of bond traders putting bets on inflation rates to remain elevated.
Bond traders are cautiously reloading wagers that burned them just weeks ago as the Federal Reserve and key global peers finally appear set to begin reducing interest rates as soon as June.
After dialing back their expectations for 2024 Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts substantially since the start of the year, bond traders on Wednesday will take their next cue when policymakers release their own updated projections for their benchmark.
This week, the US bond market faces its own Super Tuesday of sorts: the release of fresh inflation data investors will use to predict when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates.
What was supposed to be the darling trade of 2024 has unraveled, thanks to the Federal Reserve upending predictions over how fast it would lower interest rates.
Investors are beginning to war-game how the Federal Reserve can manage a US economy that just won’t land, with some even debating whether interest-rate hikes will be needed only weeks after a steady run of reductions appeared all but certain.
Traders ratcheted down their expectations for a Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut before July, and Treasury yields soared, after a report showed that inflation remains sticky in the US.
Bond traders have come more in line with the Federal Reserve’s trajectory for the upcoming easing cycle. Strategists at Citigroup Inc. say what’s missing now is traders hedging the risk of a very brief easing cycle followed by rate increases shortly thereafter.
Bond traders are finally heeding one of the market’s oldest lessons: Don’t fight the Fed.
The US government sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at a lower-than-anticipated yield, soothing investor nerves about demand for longer-dated debt.
Treasuries are headed for their biggest two-day loss in months as strong economic data reinforced the message of Federal Reserve officials including Chair Jerome Powell that interest-rate cuts are unlikely to begin before May.
The US economy is testing bond traders’ faith that the Federal Reserve will deliver a series of interest-rate cuts this year.
Jerome Powell delivered a clear message to traders eager for the central bank to start slashing interest rates: Not so fast.
The US Treasury boosted the size of its quarterly issuance of longer-term debt for a third straight time and suggested that no more increases are likely until next year.
Trading in bonds these days means having to put up with more frequent market gyrations — and that’s just fine with big investors like Pimco and BlackRock Inc.
Wall Street is widely expecting the US Treasury to announce a final increase to its sales of long-term debt this week, after a steady ramp up in supply that’s sometimes tested buyers’ appetites for funding a widening budget deficit.
After years of regulatory tinkering, Washington is now forcing through the most rigorous overhaul of the world’s biggest bond market in decades.
Bond traders are growing convinced that US Treasury yields are on the brink of returning to the way they’ve traded for most of their existence — it’s the how, why and when of the normalization that keeps financial markets bouncing around.
Bond traders are growing more convinced that US yields are heading lower as they bet on a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, yet the path to cheaper borrowing costs is set to be extremely bumpy.
Bond traders shrugged off higher-than-anticipated inflation readings for December, pricing in a larger total amount of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year beginning in May.
Right around the start of November, two words suddenly disappeared from the chatter in the bond market: debt supply.
Traders betting on a 2024 bond rally are unfazed by the recent pullback, seeing it as a chance to seize on elevated yields before the Federal Reserve starts driving down interest rates.
AlphaSimplex Group’s Kathryn Kaminski says her firm closed out a more than two-year short bet against US bonds, with its model signaling that it’s starting to become a time to buy as the market emerges from its worst rout in decades.
All across Wall Street, on equities desks and bond desks, at giant firms and niche outfits, the mood was glum. It was the end of 2022 and everyone, it seemed, was game-planning for the recession they were convinced was coming.
Treasuries rallied along with global bonds, sending benchmark yields to multi-month lows, as traders bet the world is entering a new, disinflationary period by wagering on more interest-rate cuts next year.
US stock and bond prices will see modest gains as the Federal Reserve pivots to cutting interest rates next year, though the easing may not be as aggressive as markets are now expecting.
The bond market’s bold bet on US interest-rate cuts is set for its biggest test yet.
Treasury yields resumed their downward slide — with the benchmark 10-year note’s falling to the lowest level since Sept. 1 — after the latest sign of labor-market cooling bolstered bets that a Federal Reserve shift to policy easing isn’t far off.
