According to my guest today, the lagging effects of central bank tightening will lead to a further deceleration in growth, a mild U.S. recession, anemic growth in Europe, but more resilience in emerging markets. Past episodes of high U.S. inflation suggest it will take about two years to bring core inflation down by half from its peak level. Equity valuations are stretched, particularly in big tech. Monetary authorities have decreased their support. And governments have probably already reached the limits of the fiscal stimulus they can provide.
Given those challenges, you will learn about the opportunities for investors across a range of asset classes. There are quality U.S. and international stocks that trade at reasonable valuations and stand to benefit from important technology and secular trends. The expectation of lower interest rates in the future is creating opportunities in fixed income markets. That is in longer duration and in niche parts of the market like cat bonds and agencies.
As COVID-19 comes under control with vaccines and the US economy improves, increasing exposure to both high-quality value stocks and stable growth stocks, while reducing exposure to hyper-growth and deep-value stocks, may be prudent for investors.