The worst selloff of longer-term Treasuries in more than four decades is putting a spotlight on the market’s biggest missing buyer: the Federal Reserve.
Bond investors are coalescing around a segment of the Treasuries market that offers a measure of protection from this year’s brutal rout and also positions them for the recession that some still anticipate.
The bond market’s selloff accelerated after a surge in US hiring raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates again this year.
It was the week that bond markets finally seemed to grasp what central bankers have been warning all year: higher interest rates are here to stay.
A key measure of how much bond investors are compensated for holding long-term debt turned positive for the first time since June 2021, reflecting steep increases in longer-maturity Treasury yields.
To judge by recent history, a US government shutdown won’t be a huge event for the bond market. If anything, it could even provide a little short-term relief, since Treasuries usually rally when investors need somewhere to hide.
Bond investors face the crucial decision of just how much risk to take in Treasuries with 10-year yields at the highest in more than a decade and the Federal Reserve signaling it’s almost done raising rates.
Bond traders are bracing for Treasury yields to keep pushing higher after the Federal Reserve signaled it’s likely to hold interest rates at lofty levels well into next year.
US five- and 10-year yields rose to the highest levels since 2007 after hotter-than-anticipated inflation data in Canada and rising oil prices added to global concerns about resurgent price pressures.
Amid signs the bond market has bought into the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer, a cohort of investors is placing bets on the economy hitting a wall — and a sharp policy reversal in short order.
Federal Reserve policymakers’ updated forecasts for their benchmark interest rate, due Wednesday, are looming as a key potential decider for a US Treasuries market at risk of a third straight year of losses.
The world’s most powerful central bankers have vowed in unison to keep interest rates higher for longer if necessary to tame inflation.
Jerome Powell has the bond market exactly where he wants it: lacking conviction as to the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
The US bond-market selloff resumed Monday, driving 10-year yields to a 16-year high, as the persistently resilient economy has investors positioning for interest rates to remain elevated even after the Federal Reserve winds up its hikes.
All around the world, bond traders are finally coming to the realization that the rock-bottom yields of recent history might be gone for good.
Across Wall Street, there’s growing relief that the Federal Reserve — at long last — may be done raising interest rates. But that doesn’t mean turbulence in the bond market will soon become a thing of the past.
A closely watched bond market gauge of expected US inflation is rising back toward a nine-year high, signaling concern the Federal Reserve may continue to wrestle with elevated price pressures for years.
Bulging sales of US Treasuries are about to deliver a major test of investor demand and determine whether a selloff has room to run, as the market braces for the biggest round of refunding auctions since last year.
The mood is rapidly souring in the world’s bond market, raising the stakes for Friday’s much-anticipated US monthly jobs data.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday appeared to give traders the positive signal they’ve been waiting for — that the central bank may finally be wrapping up its steepest interest-rate hikes since the early 1980s.
Sixteen months after the Federal Reserve began its most aggressive rate-hike cycle in decades, markets are breathing a sigh of relief that the central bank — at long last — may finally be done.
Listen to Wall Street’s top economists and you’ll hear the same message again and again: The risk of a recession is fading fast. And yet, in the bond market, the traditional warning that a downturn is near — an inversion of the yield curve — keeps getting louder.
Some of the biggest bond managers are sticking to their bullish view on the market for US government debt, even as that trade looks riskier by the day.
Bond traders are bracing for another tumultuous week in which key employment data could push yields on 10-year Treasuries toward 4%, a level that market watchers see luring investors into government debt.
Treasury yields surged Thursday, most to the highest levels since March, as strong economic growth data prompted traders to wager that the Federal Reserve will raise rates two more times this year.
The barrage of fresh Treasury bills poised to hit the market over the next few months is merely a prelude to what’s yet to come: a wave of longer-term debt sales that are seen driving bond yields even higher.
Bond traders are stepping up wagers that the Federal Reserve will steer the US economy into a recession.
The market for wagers on the course of Federal Reserve policy shows that traders now expect the US central bank’s policy rate will peak in September, where they previously looked for it to crest in July.
William Eigen isn’t about to apologize for his bond fund’s performance this year. Yes, his $8.7 billion JPMorgan Strategic Income Opportunities Fund is trailing about 60% of its peers after trouncing nearly every one of them last year.
The risks for bond investors from next week’s Federal Reserve meeting go well beyond whether officials decide to raise interest rates again.
Two years after inflation surged, the Federal Reserve has made limited progress tamping it down. A coterie of investors in the bond market is betting not only that policymakers will win, but that they’re right in anticipating the era of low long-term interest rates will return.
For over a year, bond traders have been whipsawed by uncertainty about how high the Federal Reserve will push interest rates.
Bond-market titans BlackRock Inc., Pacific Investment Management Co. and Vanguard Group Inc. are warning that recent violent swings in US Treasuries are only the beginning of a new era of volatility that’s here to stay until central banks conquer inflation.
The risk of a US debt default is greater than it’s ever been, threatening to tip global markets into a brand-new world of pain. For investors, there are few places to hide other than the oldest hedge in the book: gold.
This year’s top US bond managers agree that Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts are inevitable this year. The main debate they see is how deep the economic pain gets.
With inflation easing around the world and many central banks nearing the end of their interest rate hikes, a growing chorus of investors say the best place for bond buyers to juice returns is in emerging markets.
Jarred by daily double-digit moves in Treasury yields, bond investors are bracing for at least another year of rocky trading, abandoning hopes that in 2023 the market would return to normality.
Government debt yields plunged globally as mounting financial-stability concerns prompted bond traders to abandon bets on additional central-bank rate hikes and begin pricing in cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The bond market is doubling down on the prospect of a US recession after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of a return to bigger interest-rate hikes to cool inflation and the economy.
The US 30-year yield rose to the highest level since Nov. 16, Thursday, joining the rest of the Treasury market in offering investors a return of at least 4% after another batch of strong labor-market data.
A swift reassessment of how high the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year has rocked the bond market in recent weeks.
US government bond investors pushed two-year yields above 10-year yields by the widest margin since the early 1980s Thursday, a sign of flagging confidence in the economy’s ability to withstand additional Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes.
Daniel Ivascyn rode one big trade all the way to the top of the bond-market universe: speculative mortgage debt that he scooped up on the cheap in the wake of the great financial crisis.
Jerome Powell and Wall Street are headed for another face-off this week as the Federal Reserve seeks to slow its inflation-fighting campaign without signaling a readiness to stop.
US Treasuries headed for the strongest start to a year in more than two decades as investors scooped up government debt on wagers the Federal Reserve will further slow its pace of rate hikes as inflation cools.
The bond market humbled Wall Street’s best and brightest in 2022.
The world’s biggest bond market got the ammo it needed from a below-forecast consumer price figure to fully lock in a Federal Reserve downshift in their policy-rate tightening pace, though not enough to wave an all clear sign for Treasuries.
As the US economy veered toward the biggest inflation shock in four decades, investors flocked to the one corner of Wall Street that seemed a sure-fire refuge: Treasuries that provide extra compensation to keep up with rising consumer prices.
Ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting — and in a year when many didn’t make the right calls — professional investors and do-it-yourselfers are sharply divided over the best way to position ahead of the central bank’s rate decision on Dec. 14.
Mixed news on US inflation reinforced the precariousness of the bond market’s recent gains ahead of next week’s consumer prices gauge and the Federal Reserve’s last rate decision of the year.
