Investors are betting on interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in September, and potentially even in late July. But the outlook for inflation and the labor market in the United States does not indicate that policymakers should begin lowering rates in the next two months.

Father Gregory Boyle developed the world’s largest gang intervention and rehabilitation program based on the belief that jobs stop bullets. Following his lead, US policymakers must learn to appreciate the broader meaning of work as they navigate uncertain economic waters, particularly the looming artificial-intelligence revolution.

The current debate about generative AI focuses disproportionately on the disruption it might unleash. While it is true technological advances always disrupt legacy industries and existing systems and processes, one must not ignore the opportunities they can create or the risks they can mitigate.

The first-quarter GDP report supports the view that the US economy has not landed. While some economists are concerned about stagflation, the real worry is that taming price pressures may require a mild downturn, given strong consumer spending and inadequately restrictive monetary policy.

The economic outlook in the United States is unusually murky, with different sets of indicators telling different stories. But it is entirely possible that inflation will get stuck at a level inconsistent with the US Federal Reserve’s target, reducing – perhaps even to zero – the number of interest-rate cuts this year.

American progressives, together with populists and nationalists on the right, argue that “every billionaire is a policy failure” and propose applying special taxes to them. But bashing the ultra-wealthy is based on flawed ideas about income inequality and sends the message that success is a dirty word.