Debt-financed fiscal policy is driving much of today’s high inflation, but as pandemic-era measures fade, central banks will likely return to their key role in managing price levels.
U.K. financial market volatility is likely to remain high, and the longer-term outlook likely depends on future monetary and fiscal policy.
Much of the global economy has transitioned quickly from an early-cycle recovery to a mid-cycle expansion that now appears to be rapidly progressing toward late-cycle dynamics.
Despite seeing major market swings following the 2016 Brexit referendum, we don’t expect Britain’s departure from the European Union (EU) to have any major economic effects in our baseline outlook for 2021 and beyond. Far more important are COVID-19, fiscal policy, and bigger questions around future productivity growth.
The conditions for a relatively quick and robust rebound rest on the success in containing the virus within a reasonable horizon, and a well-calibrated economic policy response.
The Bank of England and the British government both announced easing measures to counter the effects of the coronavirus on the economy – how effective can we expect these measures to be?
While the election result reduces Brexit uncertainty significantly, it doesn’t eliminate it. Will there be an extension of the transition period? How will any deal affect the economy? In the meantime, UK banks and sterling, especially wounded since the 2016 referendum, still offer value, while low-yielding gilts look unattractive relative to other government debt, such as U.S. Treasuries.
The U.K. is set to head to the polls on December 12. Here are our key takeaways for the economy and markets.
The European parliamentary elections may cause near-term market jitters, but we do not think the outcome will be a game-changer.