The key to if — or when — the US economy falls into recession will depend on how the latest turmoil in the banking sector spills over to Main Street.
US pending home sales rose by the most since June 2020, potentially a temporary reprieve as lower mortgage rates in the month helped prop up demand.
The US was unseasonably hot in January, and it wasn’t just the weather.
US economic growth in the fourth quarter was weaker than previously estimated, reflecting a downward revision to consumer spending as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation figures were revised higher.
US producer prices rebounded in January by more than expected, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures that could push the Federal Reserve to pursue further interest-rate increases in the months ahead.
US consumer prices rose briskly at the start of the year, a sign of persistent inflationary pressures that could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even higher than previously expected.
US retail sales fell by the most in a year and business equipment production slumped, raising concerns that the economy is losing momentum under the weight of tighter Federal Reserve policy.
US inflation continued to slow in December, adding to evidence price pressures have peaked and putting the Federal Reserve on track to again slow the pace of interest-rate hikes.
The question that obsessed financial markets last year was when and where US inflation would peak. The 2023 version will likely be how far, and how fast, it comes down.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measures eased in November while consumer spending stagnated, suggesting the central bank’s interest-rate hikes are helping to cool both price pressures and broader demand — with more tightening on the way.
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a 10th-straight month in November, extending a record decline as high mortgage rates continue to stifle affordability.
The path of US inflation in 2023 may have more surprises in store after a year in which consumers suffered the biggest cost-of-living hit in 40 years, spurring steep interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and spooking investors.
US short-term inflation expectations unexpectedly declined to the lowest level in more than a year and consumer sentiment picked up, helped by falling gasoline prices.
US employers added more jobs than forecast and wages surged by the most in nearly a year, pointing to enduring inflation pressures that boost chances of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Economists see US inflation running hotter through next year than they did a month ago and recession odds continue to mount against a backdrop of rising borrowing costs.
A cooling in US consumer prices offered cheer to households, investors and Federal Reserve officials, but there’s still a long way before high inflation becomes history.
US worker productivity barely increased in the third quarter after steep declines in the first half of the year, though enough to slow the pace of labor cost growth.
There are early signs that US consumers, who have been largely resilient in the face of relentless inflation, are beginning to balk at high prices.
Many Wall Street economists are holding firm to their bet that US inflation will slow substantially over the next year even as they’re being forced to keep raising their predictions for coming months.
Prices paid to US producers rose in September by more than expected, suggesting inflationary pressures will take time to moderate and keeping the Federal Reserve on its aggressive interest rate-hike path.
US employers continued to hire at a solid pace last month and the jobless rate unexpectedly returned to a historic low, indicating a sturdy labor market that puts the inflation-focused Federal Reserve on course for another outsize interest-rate hike.
First they came for factory jobs. Then they showed up in service industries. Now, machines are making inroads into the kind of white-collar office work once thought to be the exclusive preserve of humans.
A barrage of data Thursday offered a mixed view of the US economy in the face of rapid inflation, including more tempered retail activity and a labor market that’s still vibrant.
US employers added a healthy number of jobs in August and a steady stream of people entering the labor force pushed the unemployment rate higher, consistent with a job market that is coming more into balance and offering mixed implications for the Federal Reserve.
US job openings rose unexpectedly in July after a sizable upward revision to the previous month, underscoring persistent tightness in the labor market as employers compete for a limited supply of workers.
The government’s main measures of US growth pointed in different directions in the first half of 2022, adding to the ongoing debate on the health of the economy.
Data this week generated a mixed report card of the US economy, showing both resilience in the face of high inflation and signs of troubles ahead.
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a sixth straight month in July in the latest indication of how high borrowing costs and waning demand are propelling the housing market’s rapid decline.
US productivity slumped for a second-straight quarter as the economy shrank, driving another surge in labor costs that risks keeping inflation elevated and further complicates the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame price increases.
If American businesses can resist laying off workers in the face of declining sales at the scale they did in past downturns, the country has a better chance of skirting a deep recession.
US consumer spending barely rose in June after falling in the prior month, underscoring how decades-high inflation has eroded Americans’ paychecks and tempered demand.
The US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, raising chances of a recession, as decades-high inflation undercut consumer spending and Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes stymied business investment and housing demand.
Sales of previously owned US homes fell in June to a two-year low as a surge in borrowing costs continues to erode affordability.
New US home construction fell in June to the lowest since September after plunging the prior month, driven by a slide in single-family homebuilding that underscores waning demand.
Business has started to evaporate across home-lending firms in recent weeks, after the Federal Reserve boosted borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation.
Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy.
Sales of new US homes jumped in May, reflecting gains in the West and South and interrupting a months-long skid as the residential real estate market adjusts to rising borrowing costs and still-elevated prices.
Sales of previously owned US homes fell for a fourth month in May, receding to the lowest level in nearly two years and underscoring how high prices and a surge in mortgage rates have stifled demand.
Applications for US unemployment insurance were little changed last week, suggesting the labor market remains exceptionally tight.
The likely moderation of US job growth in coming months will reflect a combination of hiring challenges in a remarkably tight labor market, shifts in spending patterns and outright soft spots within a handful of industries.
The widespread adoption of remote work across the US has left local employers learning to compete with out-of-state companies offering big-city salaries.
Bank CEOs kicked off earnings season with a consistent message that household finances and demand are in solid shape. Procter & Gamble Co., which counts Tide, Bounty and Pampers among its brands, has seen consumers reaching for premium-brand products. Bank of America Corp. and credit-card giant American Express Co. noted solid travel demand.
Contract closings decreased 2.7% in March from the prior month to an annualized 5.77 million, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed Wednesday. The figure was in line with estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Purchases of goods and services, adjusted for changes in prices, fell 0.4% from the prior month, following a 2.1% jump in January, according to Commerce Department figures Thursday. The decline was due entirely to a decrease in spending on merchandise.
Prices paid to U.S. producers rose strongly in February on higher costs of goods, underscoring inflationary pressures that set the stage for a Federal Reserve rate hike this week. The producer price index for final demand increased 10% from February of last year and 0.8% from the prior month, Labor Department data showed Tuesday. That followed an upwardly revised 1.2% monthly gain in January.
The consumer price index, due Thursday, is forecast to accelerate to a 7.8% increase in February from a year ago, which would be the most since 1982. But economists are now saying it could peak somewhere in the 8%-9% range this month or next, as the invasion of Ukraine and severe restrictions on the Russian economy send the prices of staples like oil and food soaring.
U.S. consumer prices surged in January by more than expected, sending the annual inflation rate to a fresh four-decade high and adding more urgency to the Federal Reserve’s plans to start raising interest rates.
U.S. productivity surged last quarter by the most in more than a year, reflecting a sharp acceleration in economic output, while labor costs growth cooled.
U.S. economic growth accelerated by more than forecast in the final three months of last year, fueled by the rebuilding of inventories and a pickup in consumer spending.
New U.S. home construction unexpectedly strengthened in December to the fastest pace in nine months, led by apartment projects and suggesting builders found some success navigating shortages of materials and labor.