Economic policy uncertainty and trade conflict may linger, but without a US recession, I do not anticipate significant further slowing in global growth.
Invesco Fixed Income remains cautious on risk until the dynamic between growth and monetary policy is resolved.
Invesco Fixed Income is positive on fundamentals for the rest of this year. Global growth is solid and inflation is tame. As central banks have pivoted away from stimulus, tighter financial conditions have hurt risky assets. But major central bank policies are still generally easy — we expect the Federal Reserve to tighten gradually, and the runway for other central banks to normalize policy is still long.
We expect US interest rates to be range-bound in the first half of 2018, but with a risk of higher yields in the second half. Our rates view is driven by our analysis of growth, inflation and monetary policy in the US and globally.
Invesco Fixed Income’s macro factor framework provides an understanding of how developments in growth, inflation and financial conditions globally are likely to impact markets.
Invesco Fixed Income shares its views on rates around the world.
Invesco Fixed Income shares its views of rates around the world.
Invesco Fixed Income shares its views of rates around the world
In December, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates, as predicted, and raised expectations for more increases in 2017. At Invesco Fixed Income, we believe one of the best ways to handle a rising interest rate environment is to have a portfolio diversified across different credit-related asset classes.
Invesco Fixed Income utilizes a framework based on the idea that changes in growth, inflation and financial conditions drive much of market beta performance, and that understanding these “macro factors” can help us understand market conditions and price action.
The US election results bring short-term uncertainty, but policy will be key in the medium term