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Conditions Remain Uneven, but Equities Again Charge Higher
Equity markets climbed for the third consecutive week, with the S&P 500 Index gaining 2.1%.1 Much of the strength came from additional signs of easing from the European and Chinese central banks. Corporate earnings were mixed, with some health care and retail industries coming under pressure, while the technology sector provided impressive results. Overall, however, the majority of companies reported better-than-expected earnings results, which added to improved market sentiment.
The Rally Continues, but Equities Appear Stuck in a Trading Range
Equity markets continued to advance last week, with the S&P 500 Index
climbing 0.9%. Third quarter earnings results were mixed, and investors
focused on stabilization in China and the upside of the Federal Reserve
holding rates steady. The utilities sector was the best-performing, while
industrials lagged.
Signs of Healing in the Markets Are Slowly Starting to Appear
Signs of economic stabilization in China and improvements in commodity
markets helped U.S. equities recover some ground last week. Diminishing
concerns over the delay in Federal Reserve rate hikes also aided sentiment.
For the week, the S&P 500 Index jumped 3.3%, with the energy, materials and
industrials sectors leading the way. Health care, in contrast, struggled.
Equities May Remain Trendless Until More Clarity Emerges
Sentiment was negative for most of last week, as investors focused on
continued uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy, slowing growth in China
and emerging markets and ongoing weakness in commodities. Stock prices
bounced on Friday following comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that a
rate increase was looking more likely in 2015. Nevertheless, equities finished
in negative territory, with the S&P 500 Index falling 1.4%. The health care, materials and industrials sectors came under pressure, while utilities, consumer
staples and financials finished higher.
Equities Fall After the Fed Fails to Raise Rates
U.S. equities were little changed last week, with the S&P 500 declining 0.1%.
Stocks posted gains early in the week before falling on Thursday and Friday
after the Federal Reserve announced it would hold rates steady. For the week,
utilities, consumer staples and health care outperformed, while materials,
telecommunications and financials came under pressure.
Market Unease May Continue for Some Time
Markets calmed last week relative to recent turmoil, but investor sentiment remains fragile. The focus on Federal Reserve policy, weakness in China and concerns about economic growth continued to drive sentiment. The S&P 500 Index gained 2.1%, commodities were flat and bond yields rose. Technology and health care posted the best results, while energy lagged.
Markets Remain in Turmoil, but Should Stabilize Eventually
Global equity markets fell last week with the S&P 500 Index down 3.4% and
some non-U.S. markets declining even more. The sell-off is a continuing reflection of the ongoing turmoil that started a few weeks ago when China devalued its currency on August 11.
Equities Endure Intense Volatility, but the Bull Market Survives
U.S. equities experienced extreme volatility last week. Prices plummeted
on Monday morning due to concerns over slowing growth in China as well
as uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy. The sell-off was likely exacerbated by trading halts, liquidity pressures and systematic investing programs. Markets recovered later in the week as investors viewed conditions as oversold, and as oil and other commodity prices stabilized and advanced. For the week, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.0%. The energy, technology and consumer discretionary sectors led the way while utilities sold off sharply.
China’s Currency Moves Spark Volatility and Uncertainty
U.S. equities endured high levels of volatility last week, dropping sharply in
the first few days of trading before recovering to end the week slightly higher.
The main focus was China’s surprising decision to devalue the yuan, which
raised concerns about a weaker global growth backdrop, deflationary trends,
the prospects of a currency war and what the move would mean for the U.S.
Federal Reserve and U.S. monetary policy.
Equities Retreat, but Long-Term Prospects Should Improve
At the beginning of July, it became clear that Greece and European
policymakers would come to at least a temporary debt agreement. Since that
time, U.S. equity prices jumped, with the S&P 500 Index climbing more than
4% by the beginning of last week.
Equities Rise as the Focus Returns to Fundamentals
U.S. equities experienced their largest one-week gain since late March last
week, with the S&P 500 Index rising 2.4%. Much of the gain came from an
easing of Greece’s debt problems and a calming of volatility in China’s equity
market. In both cases, policymakers achieved some breathing room, but
fundamental issues remain. Greece must still engage in some serious structural
reforms and the Chinese economy is still experiencing a significant slowdown.
Risks from China Overtake Concerns About Greece
U.S. equity volatility spiked last week, driven by escalating concerns over
Greece’s debt problems and a sharp volatility in Chinese equities. The Chinese
stock market experienced a dramatic sell-off in recent weeks before staging
a comeback toward the end of last week. Early last week, the possibility
of additional Greek defaults and a potential messy exit from the eurozone
intensified. By the end of the week, however, Greek officials and policymakers
seemed to be approaching an agreement.
A Mid-Year Assessment of Our Ten Predictions
We have described 2015 as the year when investors transition from disbelief to
belief, or from skepticism to optimism. Sir John Templeton coined the phrase,
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism
and die on euphoria.” We believe we are entering the “optimism” phase.
Equities Gather Momentum on Positive Indicators
U.S. equities finished higher last week as the S&P 500 increased 0.8%, recording its highest weekly gain since April. The dovish message from Wednesday’s FOMC announcement boosted markets. Contagion from Greece appears relatively contained. The sell-off in equities in China did not impact global markets. The health care, consumer staples and utilities sectors rallied. Financials lagged as banking lost momentum and energy underperformed.
Stay with Equities, but Prepare for Turbulence
U.S. equities were up fractionally last week, with the S&P 500 Index up 0.1%
as seven out of ten sectors traded higher. Strong retail sales figures kept
the focus on the Federal Reserve and the prospect of higher interest rates.
Concerns over Greece’s debt problems pushed volatility levels higher. The
banking industry performed well, while cyclical areas of the market such as
transportation lagged.
Economic and Earnings Growth Appear Poised to Move Higher
U.S. equities were fairly volatile last week as investors focused on potential
Federal Reserve action and concerns over Greece’s debt problems resurfaced.
Merger and acquisition activity also gathered headlines in the technology and
health care sectors.
Roadblocks to Equity Gains May Start to Fade
Investors had a lot to react to last week, with the biggest story being a
continued rise in global bond yields. The Conservative Party secured an
unexpectedly decisive victory in the U.K. elections and Fed Chair Janet Yellen
commented about higher equity valuations.
Equities Should Push Higher Along a Bumpy Road
Investors mostly focused on the positives last week. Corporate earnings
generally beat expectations and merger and acquisition activity remained
solid. Despite disappointing economic data, this trend reinforced the
perception that the Federal Reserve would hold off on rate hikes for the time
being. The turmoil in Greece rattled investors, but remains relatively contained.
Global Economic Risks Remain but Appear to Be Diminishing
Investors reacted to a range of data and news last week that included a further digesting of the relatively weak March jobs data, ongoing merger and acquisition news, signs of weakening corporate earnings and further evidence of upward pressure on wages. Amid all of the crosscurrents, U.S. equities finished higher, with the S&P 500 Index gaining 1.7%.1 Most international markets advanced as well, while Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar rose.1 Industrials, health care and energy stocks led the way while telecommunications, utilities and financials lagged.
Improving Growth Should Eventually Push Equities Higher
On the heels of a somewhat rough first quarter, many investors are questioning the state of economic growth and wondering if equities still hold value. Our view is that an improving global economy should (eventually) allow for a renewed upturn in earnings prospects, and in equity markets. As such, we believe investors should remain patient.
Further Equity Gains Await Earnings Recovery
Downward pressure on U.S. equities returned last week, with the S&P 500 Index falling 2.2%. This marked the second-largest weekly downturn of the year and the fourth negative week in the last five. Some of the decline can be attributed to fading positive sentiment that came in the wake of the recent Federal Reserve meeting. Ongoing negative earnings forecasts have taken their toll as well. All market sectors were in negative territory last week, with financials, technology and industrials losing the most ground and consumer staples and energy holding up the best.
A Relatively Dovish Fed Statement Helps Equities Recover Ground
Last week featured some disappointing economic data and further downward revisions of corporate earnings estimates, but investors focused heavily on last week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The Fed’s statement was more dovish than expected, and investors interpreted the comments as an indication that rate increases would not happen as soon as some anticipated.
Monetary Policy Concerns Continue to Weigh on Markets
Investors continued to focus on global monetary policy last week. The divergence between the start of the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program and the pending shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy stance caused the euro to fall, the U.S. dollar to rally and acted as a drag on U.S. equities. Concerns over a weakening corporate earnings environment acted as an additional headwind for stock prices. the S&P 500 Index declined 0.8% for the week.
Markets Pause While Awaiting Federal Reserve Activity
U.S. equities were mixed last week, with the S&P 500 declining -0.2%. The Federal Reserve (Fed) had a busy week, as the nuanced debate continues around when to begin policy normalization. The global policy divergence grabbed headlines, but the focus was mainly on negative yields in Europe and inflows to non-U.S. equities.
Global Reflation Should Allow Equities to Push Higher
Financial markets reacted well to the provisional Greek bailout extension, but risks for Europe remain elevated. Wages appear to be starting to climb, which would increase pressure on the Fed to begin rate increases this summer. There is a valid bearish case to be made, but we think the positives for equities outweigh the negatives.
Why the Rest of 2015 May Not Look Like January
January was a rough month for equity markets. Volatility increased and stocks endured some notable setbacks. For the month, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.0% after declining 2.8% last week. We believe, however, that the same factors pushing stock prices lower will actually support longer-term economic growth. We expect markets will stabilize and recover in the coming months, and believe that by the end of 2015 equity prices will be at a higher level than where they began the year.
Global Economic Growth Should Gradually Begin to Improve
Equity markets reacted to both positive and negative forces last week, but the positive factors won out in the end. Corporate earnings sentiment was lackluster and investors continued to focus on the negative effects of falling oil prices. However, markets experienced a significant tailwind from a more aggressive-than-expected quantitative easing announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB). For the week, the S&P 500 Index climbed 1.6%, snapping a three week losing streak.
Despite Escalating Volatility, U.S. Fundamentals Remain Sound
U.S. equities declined for a third straight week, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 1.2%. Defensive areas such as utilities and telecommunications were the best-performing sectors, while the financial sector was hit the hardest. Notwithstanding last week?s decision by the Swiss National Bank to remove its currency peg, the fundamental backdrop has not changed much in recent weeks. We attribute the fall in equity prices to ongoing worries about the collapse in oil prices and the ripple effect on the global financial system.
Markets May Be Choppy, but Equities Should Advance in 2015
The year started off with equity markets experiencing volatile trading. Stock prices dropped sharply in the first few trading days before recovering, while oil prices plummeted and bond yields fell. Last week, U.S. equities lost ground and the S&P 500 Index declined 0.6%.
A Look Back at 2014 (and a 2015 Preview)
At the beginning of this year, we had three broad thoughts about what it would look like. First, we expected U.S. economic growth would accelerate moderately. Second, we believed Federal Reserve tapering would occur slowly and that global monetary policy would remain accommodative. And third, we forecasted that the U.S. equity market would grind higher due to central bank liquidity, modest economic acceleration, solid corporate earnings, contained inflation and an improving fiscal situation. These views formed the basis for the predictions we made in January. And at this point, we can offer a
Falling Oil Prices Cause Jitters, but the Economy Stays on Track
The dominant financial story last week was the concern over the continued slide in oil prices, which have dropped close to 40% so far this year.1 Worries about the growing power of the Greek opposition party Syriza, and the potential effect on European policy should it assume control over the government, also contributed to investor unease.
An Improving Economy Justifies a Pro-Growth Investment Stance
U.S. equities advanced again last week with the S&P 500 Index climbing 0.4%, extending its winning streak to seven weeks. Investors responded well to improving economic data and focused on the positive aspects of declining oil prices. In China, equities moved sharply higher and notched their best weekly performance in seven years as investors speculated that Chinese officials were on the verge on enacting additional policy support.
Equities Benefit as U.S. Growth Solidifies
The dominant news story last week was President Obamas announcement of new executive actions on immigration policy, but investors chose to look past any political risks and focused on the positives. Specifically, markets reacted well to signs that the European Central Bank would expand its monetary easing and to a surprise interest rate cut in China.
Economic Data Continues to Impress, Driving Equities Higher
Once again, a combination of solid economic data, decent earnings results and receding fears of global deflation pushed stock prices higher. The S&P 500 Index rose for a fourth consecutive week, gaining 0.4%. The telecommunications and technology sectors showed particular strength while utilities and energy lagged.
Equities Recover Some Ground and Still May Have Room to Run
With global deflation and growth fears fading, U.S. equities snapped their four-week losing streak last week with the S&P 500 Index gaining 4.1%. This advance marked the largest weekly gain since January 2013. Following the correction from the mid-September to mid-October, the S&P 500 has now rallied 8%, leaving it only 3% from its all-time high.
Equity Losses Continue, but This Correction May Be Ending
Markets endured a sharp pullback and higher volatility, but technical factors suggest we may be nearing the end of the current correction. Long-term, we believe fundamentals remain sound, the U.S. economy should continue to grow and equities should be able to grind higher.
Most Risk Assets Should Continue to Find Support
Equity prices continued to slide in the face of uncertainty over global growth and pending changes to monetary policy. U.S. growth is continuing to improve, and shows further signs of divergence from the rest of the world. Markets may remain sloppy for a while, but fundamentals suggest most risk assets should continue to perform well.
Looking Past the Risks, Equities Still Appear Attractive
Last week featured some positive economic news, but equity markets sank nonetheless, with the S&P 500 Index falling 1.3%. On the bright side, we saw some strong data from the housing market and an upward revision to second-quarter gross domestic product growth (GDP).
A Lack of Surprises Helps Equity Markets Make Gains
Equity markets rose again last week, with the S&P 500 Index climbing 1.3% and reaching another record high. Bond yields and the U.S. dollar drifted higher, while emerging market equities and commodities struggled. Two major events that resulted in a continuation of the status quo helped market sentiment.
The U.S. Is Diverging From Other Developed Markets
U.S. equities fell amid a relatively quiet week, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 1.1%. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting drew quite a bit of attention amid increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may start signaling its long-awaited move to increase rates.
Results 51–100
of 115 found.