We are prone to animal analogies when describing disorderly situations: like herding cats, like a barrel full of monkeys, like a dog’s breakfast.
The people have spoken. While there are still some unknowns, the contours of the American government that will be seated next January are reasonably clear.
The election is unlikely to influence monetary policy.
State and municipal budgets are adjusting to life after pandemic interventions.
The regulatory outlook is a question of direction more than extent.
New business formations have held up, but closures are also rising.
Sports fans know that a lot can change in the fourth quarter of a game. So too for the U.S. economy, as a substantial labor action commenced the minute that calendars turned to the fourth quarter of 2024.
The next president will face a difficult fiscal context.
How rapidly should the Fed cut rates?
The next U.S. president will face immediate fiscal challenges.
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
Last week, we explored the old economic rules that falsely predicted an imminent recession. Losing those guideposts has complicated our efforts to craft an outlook.
Previously reliable recession signals have not worked in this cycle.
The strong currency is neither a blessing nor a curse.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
Metals from Mexico may have a much further point of origin.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets, with a spotlight on the eurozone.
Chief U.S. Economist Ryan Boyle explains why measures of inflation don't match feelings about prices.
Higher education is one among many paths to success.
An array of data sources show a labor market that still has plenty of strength.
Mexico has momentum to meet demands from reshoring.
Summer hiring promises more than just monetary rewards for teens.
Home equity lending does not require policy support.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
However we measure inflation, we see an incomplete recovery.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.
Skepticism is warranted when inflation stories exclude bad news.
The FOMC has enough factors to consider without adding politics to the mix.
Financial stability is much improved since last year's stress.
Demand for copper is on the rise. Can its supply keep pace?
We had expected the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in June. But as more of our audiences asked why, we saw the case was not strong. This week’s inflation reading seals the deal: we now expect the easing cycle to start in September.
Immigration is coming up everywhere, including economic data.
Evidence of overstretched households is emerging, which could threaten the soft landing scenario.
More charging stations and lower prices can break EV sales out of their slump.
Shelter costs are keeping inflation measures elevated.
Climate risks and regulations are on the rise.
Japan's prolonged downturn has lessons for other nations at inflection points.
The current housing shortage has been long in the making.
When consumers fall behind, the credit card bill goes unpaid.
The higher level of U.S. oil production is helping to keep global prices contained.
Progress on a 2024 U.S. federal budget has been limited.
The economics team shares a few things that have been on our minds.
A favorable inflation report is just one step in a long journey.
We review the key themes of the first half of a busy year.
A debt ceiling deal is within sight.
Financial volatility continues to moderate amid settling in the banking sector. Economic data in much of the world has remained positive. But a slowdown is in store. Businesses and households will have a harder time borrowing as credit conditions tighten further. Financial risks have risen.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation, employment, and interest rates.
