While choppy markets require a strong stomach, they historically hold the most value.

As we return to work after the holidays, a sharp sell off in global equities and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East beg the question whether this New Year will be a happy one for investors. I believe the recent market swings are no more than passing disruptions. For U.S. equities and credit, in particular, evidence is mounting that 2016 will prove happier than 2015 for investors. In fact, the global factors currently roiling the markets are easy to discount, and could lead to investment opportunities.

Risk assets—particularly high-yield bonds and bank loans—are well positioned to enjoy a prosperous road ahead.

Central banks’ aversion to any downturn should support the current rebound in risk assets through the end of the year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate rise history reveals a familiar dilemma—previous delays led to inflated asset prices and recessions.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate rise history reveals a familiar dilemma—previous delays led to inflated asset prices and recessions.

The source of the current market correction is the massive misalignment of exchange rates, which finds its roots in quantitative easing.

Weak manufacturing data out of China indicate that its policymakers will have to act drastically to reverse its decline.

When policymakers tell you one thing and the data tell you something different, heed the data. Markets that are in the midst of transition do not behave according to script, despite the best efforts of policymakers to script them. Last week, China loosened control of its currency, resulting in its biggest one-day loss in two decades, compounded by additional losses over the following days. As of this writing, the renminbi (RMB) has depreciated by close to 3 percent since the start of last week.

Reports of ongoing global market volatility are taking a toll on consumer confidence. However, compelling opportunities await patient investors.

If Chinese policymakers don’t alter course soon, the current Chinese equity market correction could turn into a stock market plunge similar to what happened in the United States in 1929.

With a resounding "NO" vote on the Greek referendum to accept the terms of Europe's proposed "bailout", market pundits are out in force talking about the coming turmoil. I think investors and policymakers alike would be wise to step back and put this unexpected outcome into perspective for the long term.

A stream of positive data supports a September rate hike, but summer storms loom on the horizon.

While bonds are still reasonably valued, yields have risen more than expected and seasonals appear to have turned against equities.

What to make of markets that are no longer on speaking terms with their fundamentals.

The Kentucky Derby marks the beginning of summer, but ultimately investors must prepare for the coming winter.

Milton Friedman once said that “when that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around.” After the 2008–2009 financial crisis, there was no shortage of ideas for how to prevent catastrophic financial events from ever happening again. What ultimately resulted was forceful and wide-ranging regulatory responses that included Dodd Frank, the Volcker Rule, Basel III, Solvency II, the Federal Reserve Supplemental Leverage Ratios… the list goes on and on.

Powerful secular and fundamental forces at work signal that the risk to U.S. interest rates remains to the downside.

Investors anticipating first-quarter GDP growth should revisit the data—a replay of 2014’s weather-induced economic downturn is more likely.

The long-term consequences of global QE are likely to permanently impair living standards for generations to come while creating a false illusion of reviving prosperity.

Europe stands to benefit as the euro nears parity with the U.S. dollar; the Fed knows the U.S. economy faces a winter soft patch; the outlook for equities and fixed income remains fundamentally strong.

Behavioral finance reminds us that ignoring daily volatility roiling the market is wise. Instead, investors should focus on the positive, fundamental outlook for equities and fixed income.

While winter weather will likely distort first-quarter economic data, accommodative monetary policy around the world means the long-term outlook remains positive.

The lead-up to the first rate hike by the Federal Reserve is historically a favorable environment for U.S. equities and credit.

The lead-up to the first rate hike by the Federal Reserve is historically a favorable environment for U.S. equities and credit.

With the debt-to-GDP ratio at historic highs, the Fed doesn’t have much room to maneuver on the federal funds rate.

Advance notice of the timing of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve may hinge on the removal of just one word, warns St. Louis Fed President Bullard.

Europe?s central bank took bold action this week, consuming the conversation at the World Economic Forum?s Annual Meeting, but will it be enough?

Economic strength in the U.S. and the announcement of QE in Europe could spell the end of the recent bond rally.

If the mid-80s? supply-driven oil crisis is a guide, we should expect further declines and a prolonged period where oil prices remain depressed.

A solid run of domestic data has set the United States apart from a beleaguered world.

The free fall in oil prices is roiling markets. There are near-term benefits of lower energy prices, but darker clouds are gathering for the global economy.

The slump in oil prices could stifle global growth and force some oil-dependent economies into recession.

Rising equities and falling prices at the pump will bring holiday cheer, but be aware of potential headwinds as we head into 2015.

U.S. high-yield bonds, leveraged credit, and equities will likely outperform in the coming months, but there are obstacles ahead.

Things in Europe are bad and policymakers appear already to have fallen behind the curve. The reality is the ECB will need to purchase at least another 1.5 trillion in assets, and even that may not be enough to avert a severe slowdown.

U.S. stocks will likely move higher as pension fund managers go bargain hunting in an effort to put seasonal cash inflows to work.

After a volatile week in markets, U.S. equities are now oversold and investors should be alert for seasonal factors that should soon turn positive.

Early in Shakespeares "beth," Lord Banquo asks the prophetic three witches, "If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow, and which will not, speak then to me." Banquos turn of phrase reminds us that if a farmer planted the wrong grain he could yield a poor harvest, or worse, he might even starve. I thought about this recently when asked about the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Investors, like farmers, have a sense of the seasons that guides which grains, or investments, are more likely to yield favorable results. While I have

As the Federal Reserve maintains a highly accommodative monetary policy the central bank runs the risk of allowing the U.S. economy to overheat.

While the U.S. economy is gaining momentum, investors should nevertheless brace for volatility in the next few weeks.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve debates withdrawing accommodation the doves have the upper hand, but that does not mean they wont make a concession to hawks and hike sooner than the market expects.

Aggressive central bank accommodation from Europe to Japan and a dovish Federal Reserve bode well for equities and bond prices.

Markets do not move in straight lines, so yields could retrace to 2.5 percent in the near term after breaking out as low as 2.35 in early August. Ultimately, as rates head back toward 2 percent investors should use the rally to reduce interest rate risk.

The recent selloff in U.S. stocks is healthy and could set markets up to reach new highs by year end. Long- term investors should not fall victim to panic and sell.

Despite a disconcerting, growing consensus among investors, the likelihood of a sudden increase in U.S. interest rates is fairly remote for now.

The Feds not taking the punch bowl from the party, but investors should be wary of the hangover.

A few years ago, facing a world in crisis, central banks aggressively employed monetary policy to avoid catastrophe in financial markets. Now, they must be equally aggressive in fighting complacency.

Investors should expect a quiet summer with markets rolling along, but with valuations becoming frothy now is a time to consider greater exposure to assets with higher credit quality.

As U.S. economic growth gathers pace, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries should shift higher over the next two to three years, eventually moving as high as 3.75-4 percent.