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The Fed's Balance Sheet
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 8/1/13
The value of the Feds portfolio has fallen by about $192 billion as a result of the rise in interest rates over the past quarter. Further losses from rising interest rates could compromise the Feds ability to engage in monetary tightening should market conditions warrant such action.

A One-Pillar Economy
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 7/25/13
Despite blockbuster new home sales, higher interest rates have put downward pressure on housing activity. This is highly worrisome given the importance of housing to the health of the U.S. economy.

A U.S. Stock Market Rally to Sell
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 7/18/13
The longer-term outlook for the U.S. stock market remains favorable, but moves in the NYSE advance/decline line suggest caution in the weeks and months ahead.

Turmoil and Transition in China
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 7/11/13
Tensions in Asia are rising, as China attempts to move toward a more market driven economy. This, combined with the ongoing ultra loose monetary conditions in Japan, has elevated the threat of a financial crisis in the region between now and the end of 2013.

The Fed's Bind: Tapering, Timetables and Turmoil
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 7/9/13
There are striking parallels between the dramatic recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and the Great Bond Crash of 1994. But the summer of volatility now facing financial markets is no doomsday scenario. Instead, it puts the U.S. Federal Reserve in a bind. Higher interest rates will reduce housing affordability, which is especially troublesome since housing is the primary locomotive of U.S. economic growth.

A Roadmap for Rates
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 7/3/13
Uncertainty over the Federal Reserves timeline for tapering quantitative easing has resulted in increased volatility in fixed income markets. While the coming months could see the 10-year Treasury yield climb as high as 3.5 percent, the resulting economic slowdown will keep rates subdued in the medium-term.

Policy-Induced Volatility Continues
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 6/27/13
The recent bond market collapse is reminiscent of the Great Crash of 1994. Further pressure on the economy due to rising interest rates could cause the Fed to revisit its timetable for QE.

The Trouble with Tapering
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 6/19/13
Rising interest rates are beginning to put pressure on the recovery in the housing market, which will affect economic output. This reduces the likelihood that the Fed will taper QE in 2013, and could even lead it to signal a possible expansion or extension of the current policies.

The Instability of Stability
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 6/13/13
Hyman Minskys scholarship holds valuable lessons for the current dynamic in the economy. The Fed, via QE, continues to induce speculative buying in the Treasury market, which is having the effect of destabilizing a number of asset classes.

The Fed's Dilemma
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 6/6/13
Market volatility is rising as the Fed continues with its asset purchase program. The economy also appears increasingly vulnerable to a rise in interest rates, which would have an adverse effect on housing in particular.

The Canary in the Coal Mine
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 6/5/13
Ongoing monetary stimulus is leading to heightened volatility, and the bull market which has been in place since 2009 is becoming overextended. The recent string of surprise downside moves in markets may be the canary in the coal mine for global investors.

Morning in a New Europe
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 5/30/13
The pace of policy reforms is accelerating and economic recovery appears to be on the horizon for the European Union.

QE from 35,000 Feet
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 5/23/13
Quantitative easing has benefited from global macro events and appears likely to continue for the rest of the year. Markets, though, will continue to anticipate how the current policies will eventually be unwound.

Abenomics for Europe
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 5/20/13
The devaluation of the Japanese yen may lead EU policymakers to implement measures that will help the economic situation in the single currency zone.

Make Way for the MIPS
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 5/9/13
Emerging markets still provide excellent opportunities for outperformance in equities, with Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore being among the best positioned for the decade ahead.

Europe at a Minimum Speed
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 5/2/13
Market forces are correcting the growth dichotomy between the European Unions core and periphery, thus improving the outlook for the region.

Questioning Quantitative Easing
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 4/25/13
Speculation over the reduction or expansion of quantitative easing largely amounts to market noise.

Signs of a Correction
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 4/17/13
Although the long-term economic picture remains sanguine, a number of global risks and economic results point to a temporary period of consolidation in equity markets.

The Ripple Effect of Abenomics
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 4/11/13
Monetary policy in Japan will continue to drive investors in that country to overseas markets, which will affect global asset prices and bond yields.

Sound Fundamentals but Fatigue in the Markets
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 4/4/13
Although economic fundamentals continue to strengthen, the run-up in asset prices that has unfolded over the past half-year appears to be at risk of a temporary set-back.

A More Mature Bull Market
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 4/1/13
One of the characteristics of a more mature bull market, such as the one we are in today, is that asset prices become more susceptible to contractions due to negative news.

Cyprus as a Pandora’s Box
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 3/21/13
The attempt to levy a deposit tax on Cypriot accounts has the potential to further destabilize the European Union, with contagion risk elevating for other peripheral member states.

Excess Liquidity Finds a Home
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 3/14/13
U.S. home prices appear likely to continue to rise as the Federal Reserve injects more liquidity into the system. Given housings unique characteristics, this will have positive effects for consumption and growth.

When Will the Music Stop?
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 3/7/13
The investment environment is in transition, with uncertainty around policy moves contributing an increasing amount of uncertainty for asset prices.

An Ephemeral Swoon
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 2/28/13
Although volatility is likely to stay relatively high going forward, the recent move in the markets to risk-off mode appears to be a temporary condition.

Collateral Damage in the Currency Wars
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 2/21/13
Global competitive devaluation will continue to cause asset prices to rise in the near-term, but the broader implication of the policies will be increased volatility.

When Politics Trump Economics
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 2/14/13
The U.S. economic expansion continues, but increasing attention to political risks, and currency wars, in particular, indicate a period of heightened volatility could be ahead.

Echoes of 2004
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 2/7/13
Rising equities and tightening credit spreads define the near-term investment outlook, but this is not the first time we have seen this cycle play out in recent memory.

Crystallization at Davos
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 2/1/13
The euphoria among my fellow Davos attendees was palpable, but short and long-term risks for the world's advanced economies, including competitive currency devaluation, remain concerning.

Escape Velocity in the Economy
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/24/13
The broad improvement in U.S. economic data indicates that the economy is likely to continue to expand, supporting earnings growth and pointing to an eventual return of leveraged buy outs.

Signs of a Rotation
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/17/13
As yields continue to dwindle and risks in the fixed income market come into clearer focus, investors have begun to regard equities as a compelling alternative to bonds.

2013 Leveraged Credit Report: High Yield and Bank Loans
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/11/13
Record high prices, historically low yields and gradually deteriorating fundamentals have tempered expectations for the leveraged credit market. Generating above-market returns in 2013 will require an even greater emphasis on fundamental credit analysis to unearth opportunities in attractively valued segments of the market, such as upper middle-market bank loans.

A Brighter Picture for Jobs and the Economy
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/10/13
Promising fundamental developments suggest that U.S. economic expansion is likely to continue and equities will rise in the first quarter.

Restricted Room for Higher Rates
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/7/13
Interest rates should rise through 2013, however, the level to which they can increase will be limited by the Federal Reserve's ongoing attempt to stimulate activity in the housing market.

The Limits of Monetary Policy
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 12/20/12
With unemployment levels remaining stubbornly elevated, investors should not expect a reversal of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve in 2013.

Decoupling From the Eurozone
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 12/13/12
Recent positive data releases from the U.S. and Asia seem to indicate that global investors should not expect to be severely affected by the ongoing problems in the eurozone.

The Keynesian Depression
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 12/7/12
Five years have passed since the beginning of the Great Recession. Growth is slow, joblessness is elevated, and the knock-on effects continue to drag down the global economy. The primary difference between today and the 1930s, when the U.S. experienced its last systemic crisis, has been the response by policymakers. Having the benefit of hindsight, policymakers acted swiftly to avoid the mistakes of the Great Depression by applying Keynesian solutions. Like the last depression, we are likely to live with the unintended consequences of the policy response for years to come.

From a Fiscal Cliff to a Fiscal Speed Bump
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 12/6/12
More granular analysis of the line items in the fiscal cliff tells a less harrowing story than what Congress and the media are presenting. The official projections are showing scary numbers for the fiscal cliff, but when we dig into the details we see that the real impact will likely be materially less significant. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the fiscal cliff adds up to a total increase in tax revenue of $631 billion, which is approximately 4% of GDP. Going through the report line by line tells a different story.

A Turn in the Credit Cycle
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 11/28/12
Investors should understand the recent transition in the credit market and the implications it could have for the trajectory of asset prices over the long-term.

Too Low for Too Long
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 11/15/12
The Federal Reserve faces the risk of inducing a sell-off in bonds similar to that which occurred in 1994 when Dr. Greenspan tightened credit conditions after maintaining an artificially low interest rate environment for an extended period.

Make Way for Debt Mutualization in Europe
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 11/8/12
Hurdles and hold-ups are inevitable but recent policy developments in Europe indicate that the ECB and the Bundesbank are cooperating and greater federalization is likely.

Macro View: Natural Disaster Economics
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/31/12
"Super-Storm" Sandy will distort economic activity and data over the coming months.

Cheap Debt is Good News for Stocks
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/25/12
The eventual return of leveraged buy-outs (LBOs) and an uptick in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) should give investors further reason to be bullish on stocks.

Macro View: Europe's Glacial Move To Federalization
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/18/12
Uncertainty continues to weigh on European markets but the continent is still drifting toward federalization. Recent trends and political developments are constructive for an eventual return to growth for the region.

High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/15/12
The leveraged credit market turned in an impressive Q3 with high yield bonds and bank loans returning 4.3 and 3.1 percent, respectively. Unprecedented accommodation from central bankers across the globe has alleviated much of the macroeconomic tail risk that we highlighted in last quarters publication. Presented with a seemingly insatiable demand for new issue bonds, issuers returned to the torrid pace of issuance that characterized the start of 2012 by raising a record $99 billion during the third quarter.

Macro View: China in Transition
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/11/12
With nominal growth rates falling faster than expected, the possibility of a hard landing for China country's economy appear to be increasing. More importantly, however, there is more to this situation than is immediately observable.

Return to Bretton Woods
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/10/12
The gold-convertible U.S. dollar became the global reserve currency under the Bretton Woods monetary system, which lasted from 1944-1971. This arrangement ended because foreign central banks accumulated unsustainably large reserves of U.S. Treasuries, threatening price stability and the purchasing power of the dollar. Today, central banks are once again stockpiling massive Treasury reserves in an attempt to manage their currency values and gain advantages in export markets. We have, effectively, returned to Bretton Woods.

The Faustian Bargain
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 8/22/12
In Goethe's 1831 drama Faust, the devil persuades a bankrupt emperor to print and spend vast quantities of paper money as a short-term fix for his country's fiscal problems. As a consequence, the empire ultimately unravels and descends into chaos. Today, governments that have relied upon quantitative easing (QE) instead of undertaking necessary structural reforms have arguably entered into the grandest Faustian bargain in financial history.

Winning the War in Europe
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 3/7/12
Given my view on the global liquidity glut, it probably will come as no surprise that I remain bullish on U.S. investments, including equities, high yield bonds, bank loans and other risk assets, as well as art and collectibles. I believe the United States has entered a period of self-sustaining economic expansion, driven primarily by the aggressive monetary policy of the Fed, which is now being reinforced by the ECB. U.S. growth is necessary to reduce domestic unemployment and to provide support to the struggling economies in Europe and Asia.

The Triumph of Optimism
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/3/12
Over the course of history there is a certain triumph of optimism. Betting against the column of progress of human history and the innovation of mankind has always proven to be a losing proposition. In the short run, there are times to become cautious, as the past five years have exemplified. Broad-based economic expansion and its attendant outsize investment returns follow contraction and panic just as the day follows the night. As dark as the current environment may seem, the sun will come up tomorrow. When it does, I believe it will shine favorably on the optimists of today.
Results 151–200 of 205 found.