Central banks endlessly fascinate me.
So far, my 2023 investing looks just like 2022: lots of waiting.
Markets are selling off in unison again. As I discuss in my article below, I believe this reflects their increased centralization. The cure, of course, is to decentralize (no, I don't mean crypto).
Speculation’s a dirty word for investors.
There’s no escaping the Federal Reserve (Fed) when it comes to investing these days.
Catching inflection points is the holy grail of trading. It’s what makes investing lore.
Many investors buy gold to protect against inflation. However, it's not as effective a hedge as believed. In my article below, I discuss how gold’s relationship to money, and as a result inflation, changed.
It's truly sad to watch events unfold in China. However, it's no surprise that investment markets are falling with China's increased economic controls. As discussed in my article, centralization produces fragility.
I’ve got inflation on my mind these days.
What recently transpired in GameStop's stock was truly epic. More astonishing, though, was the ease at which a nihilistic narrative took hold in the absence of fact. To me it was telling and an opportunity to improve my thinking.
Abstract investment themes are much more than entertainment. They’re serious business and have roles to play in portfolios. I share my process for incorporating then into mine.
What to own, how to do so, and when are the most important questions investors face. In my article, I discuss how a framework of collateral, leverage, and volatility can be used to help answer them.
When it comes to investing it’s never different this time; nor, however, is it ever the same. This difficult-to-navigate paradox creates a scarcity of longevity. Today’s persistently low yield environment has upped the ante and put many marquis names out of business.
I can’t seem to shake this sense that we live in a culture that’s scared. I see a number of signs across the economic, political, and investment landscapes that seem support this observation.Yet change is the essence of investing. Those who embrace it will survive. Those who don’t could perish from this business.
I apply some learned forecasting techniques from Superforecasting to the question of whether the U.S. will enter a bear market. I examined some data and devised a good base rate to start with given current conditions.
The global economy is apparently facing a significant problem. Inflation’s gone missing! Central bankers can’t seem to stoke it no matter how deftly they act.
This is my brief exploration of George Soros's theory of reflexivity (a.k.a. complexity theory, complex adaptive system analysis, etc.). I simply see reflexivity everywhere and can't help but wonder if the yield curve inversion might be an instance of epic proportions.
The following is Part 3 in my journey to uncover the impact that the Fed plays in investment markets. Contrary to popular belief, the Fed does not create money. Rather, it provides cheap liquidity to banks. In a fiat currency regime, I believe, this forestalls deleveraging and encourages debt growth.
Some of the investing "heavyweights" have been debating whether or not value investing is dead. I compile some of what's being discussed and can't help but wonder if this is an example of life imitating art.
For this post, I’d like to offer a few “Disintegrated Thoughts” on some things I’ve been thinking about in the investment markets. These include: The ECB and volatility deleveraging, Business building and ignoring valuations, Sticking up for “speculation” and Notes from the judo mat.
Central bankers catch a lot of flak these days. However, there are two dominant trends in the market place – increasing allocations towards passive and private market investment strategies – where this ire might be misplaced. What if these developments were merely part of the natural evolution of investment markets?