If there’s one thing investors have learned in recent days, it’s that there’s no way to guess what America will do next. With its on-again, off-again tariffs, the US administration has demonstrated a rare and reckless willingness to shock markets.

Social Security is at the center of the fiscal emergency that threatens the US. Yet Washington is always reluctant to grapple with it honestly, partly because the issue is misunderstood.

Ideally, nobody would have to worry about the burgeoning and multifaceted realm of nonbank finance: Let hedge funds, securities dealers and the like take whatever risks they want, as long as they bear the full consequences.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was right — but easy to misinterpret.

After years of poor decision-making, the federal government’s $1.64 trillion student loan program is in critical condition. Congress needs to stanch the bleeding — and give serious thought to overhauling this flawed system for the longer term.

Some of America’s leading financial firms are hoping to sell the White House on what sounds like a compelling idea: Open employer-sponsored retirement plans to the private investments they manage, so regular folks can reap returns currently reserved for the wealthy.

Why would a bank suddenly shut down a customer’s adequately funded account? Some leading Republicans, echoing tech titans like Marc Andreessen, have warned of a conspiracy among regulators to “debank” conservatives and crypto enthusiasts.

A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.

For the new Congress, deciding the fate of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will present an immediate dilemma. Allowing the law’s provisions to expire as scheduled at the end of the year would effectively raise taxes on tens of millions of Americans.

Every year, millions of Americans living abroad suffer a profound administrative indignity: complying with a US income-tax regime that treats them like miscreants and complicates the lives even of those who owe nothing.

Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.

The Federal Reserve faces a reckoning: Sometime soon, it’ll probably have to subject its stress tests to public scrutiny, highlighting serious flaws in what has become its primary tool for ensuring the resilience of the banking system.

A rude surprise could be in store for the millions of Americans who get health coverage through the Affordable Care Act. If Congress doesn’t act next year, enhanced premium subsidies will expire by December, causing enrollees’ payments to increase by more than 75% on average.

Take it from Niels Bohr: “Those who are not shocked when they first come across quantum theory cannot possibly have understood it.”

Investors see recent inflation data as a green light for the Federal Reserve to trim another quarter point from the short-term interest rate.

Since its enactment in 2022, the Chips and Science Act — a $280 billion splurge intended to revive US semiconductor manufacturing — has been at best a mixed success. A $7.9 billion grant to Intel Corp., announced by President Joe Biden’s administration last week, shows how this gravy train may be headed off the rails.

One of the most important issues for Congress next year is tax reform.

’Tis the season for a surge in financial frauds and scams, a huge and growing problem that caused nearly $500 billion in losses globally last year, along with untold human suffering.

Most Americans, from both parties, say the government needs to increase the supply of affordable housing. For President-elect Donald Trump, that should offer a good opportunity to summon his instincts for development — and self-promotion — to get America building again. Call it the “Trump Building Boom.”

The crypto party seems to be getting restarted. Bitcoin is surging and big players are celebrating amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will make the US, as he put it, “the crypto capital of the world.”

Given that he was just elected, Donald Trump’s plans for financial regulation are, like so much else, a mystery. Yet his campaign’s disdain for the administrative state — and the public’s growing exasperation with red tape — suggests the country is in for a period of bureaucratic humility. Here’s hoping the financial system doesn’t become vulnerable as a result.

If you’re unfamiliar with synthetic risk transfers, there’s a chance you’ll hear all about them when the next financial crisis hits. They’re the latest way for big banks to game rules designed to safeguard the system, and they’re growing fast. So far, regulators seem all but oblivious.

Cerebrospinal fluid leaks, caused by tears or holes in the spinal cord, are rare and difficult to identify. Because the symptoms aren’t uncommon — including nausea, neck pain, ringing in the ears and debilitating positional headaches — patients can spend years without a proper diagnosis. Some have been told they have allergies.

For the land of free markets and open competition, the US has surprisingly little choice when it comes to payments. Americans use cards for most of their purchases, and most of those transactions are handled by just two companies, Visa or Mastercard, which levy billions of dollars of fees on the merchants that rely on them.

If you’re unfamiliar with synthetic risk transfers, there’s a chance you’ll hear all about them when the next financial crisis hits. They’re the latest way for big banks to game rules designed to safeguard the system, and they’re growing fast. So far, regulators seem all but oblivious.

If money makes the world go around, it hasn’t been doing a very good job lately. Beyond developed nations — in eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa — people and businesses are increasingly finding themselves cut off from global payments. An unintended consequence of necessary measures to enforce sanctions and thwart criminals, the trend is doing significant damage to trade and economic growth.

So far, so good. The Federal Reserve’s efforts to engineer a soft landing for the economy are going well.

At risk of understatement, let’s call it a big deal. Microsoft Corp.’s agreement with Constellation Energy Corp. to reopen the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania could prove highly consequential — for the green-energy transition and much else besides.

It’s understandable that bank regulators, facing zealous industry opposition, are retreating from their effort to require the biggest lenders to fund their assets with more equity. After all, there hasn’t been a major blowup in 18 months and the banks insist they have more than enough capital.

At the recent central-bank symposium at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a widely expected message on interest rates: “The time has come for policy to adjust.” He all but confirmed that the Fed would cut rates by at least a quarter-point when its policymakers next meet in September.

At the end of next year, most of the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 are set to expire. If nothing is done, taxes will go up. Both presidential contenders say they won’t let this happen and have promised to extend many or most of the law’s changes.

Is private equity a problem? To what extent could this class of investment funds, which manages almost $9 trillion worldwide on behalf of everyone from wealthy individuals to California teachers, cause or propagate the next financial crisis?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently testified that he’d like to see more good news on inflation before cutting interest rates. He got what he asked for.

Big tech companies have brought the 21st century some of its greatest innovations. Amazon.com Inc., Google search, Apple Inc.’s iPhone and other digital products have made people’s lives immensely more convenient and productive — a consumer benefit worth, by one estimate, more than $2.5 trillion a year. They deservedly dominate their respective markets.

President Joe Biden, as you’ve no doubt heard, has had a rough few weeks. Yet on Tuesday, he signed a bill into law that could well prove transformative for America’s energy future. Here’s hoping — whatever happens in November’s election — that more progress lies ahead.

By some metrics, the US financial system is in great shape. All 31 banks that underwent the Federal Reserve’s stress tests this year maintained adequate capital even in a “severe” economic scenario.

Less than 15 months after the world’s most recent banking crisis, regulators in the US and Europe are already poised to roll back reforms aimed at reducing the risk of further financial disasters. It’s a serious mistake.

Congress keeps talking about regulating stablecoins but doing nothing. It’s a lapse that poses growing dangers to investors, the financial system and even (perhaps) national security.

With his signature student-loan-forgiveness plan struck down by the Supreme Court, President Joe Biden is pushing to cancel debts by other means. His latest proposal aims to relieve nearly 30 million borrowers, on top of those who’ve received forgiveness under previous initiatives.

Shadow banking is back. A constellation of less-regulated intermediaries — from insurers to private investment funds — is increasingly taking on the traditional business of banks, making trillions of dollars in risky loans and occupying a central role in the economy.

It probably escaped your attention, but the Internal Revenue Service recently piloted a program to help Americans cope with their notoriously complex tax system.

The rise of index funds has provided millions of Americans with a cheaper and more efficient way to invest. With more than $23 trillion in assets between them, BlackRock Inc., Vanguard Group Inc. and State Street Corp. have become the top shareholders in many US-listed companies.

The Federal Reserve’s difficult task suddenly looks even harder. The central bank’s goal has been to restrain demand enough to push inflation gently back to its 2% target without tipping the economy into a recession.

President Joe Biden’s new budget isn’t going anywhere. Policy for the current fiscal year is in disarray, to say nothing of the one that starts next October — and things will probably get worse as elections approach.

America’s public pension funds have gotten themselves into a bind. They’re responsible for paying trillions of dollars in future retirement benefits to teachers, firefighters, police, and other state and local employees, but their assets fall far short of what’s needed to fulfill those promises.

Capital One has grown into the ninth-biggest US bank by assets through the relentless promotion of its credit cards, which provide two-thirds of its revenue.

As New York Community Bancorp Inc. scrambles to shore up its capital to deal with potential loan losses, analysts are watching to see if depositors pull their money.

Special purpose acquisition companies have for too long existed in a regulatory gray area. With new rules approved last month, the Securities and Exchange Commission has provided needed clarity for these entities and their investors.

The latest economic data for the US are better than most dared hope a year ago. Inflation has fallen much faster than the Federal Reserve expected, and so far without the abrupt economic slowdown and higher unemployment that many economists thought likely.