The Bank of Canada embarked on a swift tightening path, but secular forces still weigh on the longer-run interest rate outlook.

Much of the global economy has transitioned quickly from an early-cycle recovery to a mid-cycle expansion that now appears to be rapidly progressing toward late-cycle dynamics.

Just over a year ago, the biggest prevailing worry in the Canadian financial system was the risk of house prices falling in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

On April 21 the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada (BoC) will meet to discuss monetary policy.

Canada’s central bank looks to evolve its policy framework amid concern over disinflationary trends.

We are skeptical Canada can shift its growth model, and our investment outlook for Canada is cautious as a result.

While trade policy has dominated headlines, we believe investors should focus on the collapse of Western Canadian Select (WCS) oil prices relative to global benchmarks, which represents the biggest exogenous risk to the Canadian economy.

External pressures are mounting, but Canada’s biggest wake-up call may come from within.