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What May Shape 2018? Four Key Market Movers
Despite the near-boundless markets of 2017, there are four key drivers likely to power the year ahead. The Fed, tax reform, geopolitics and a return to volatility – and opportunity – are in line to support our cautious optimism, says Mona Mahajan, US investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors.
TDFs: Reliable Outcomes Begin With Income Projections
Long viewed as a retirement savings vehicle, Target Date Funds (TDFs) are experiencing something of an identity crisis. For plan sponsors and participants alike, account balances are being eclipsed by income projections as a TDF’s key indicator of financial wellness in retirement says Glenn Dial, Head of Retirement Strategy in the US with Allianz Global Investors.
Divergence on Display in December at Fed and ECB
Even as the Fed is expected to hike rates in December as part of its policy normalization, a majority of ECB governing members continue supporting the bank’s asset-purchase programme. Shifting central bank dynamics will make the landscape increasingly difficult for investors to navigate says Franck Dixmier, Global Head of Fixed Income for Allianz Global Investors.
2018 Outlook: Guard Against Real-World Inflation
The gradual reversal of expansionary monetary policies – at differing paces globally – will require some investors to adjust their approaches. Protecting purchasing power will remain a priority as official inflation understates real-world costs.
Mr Xi Reveals His Blueprint for China’s ‘New Era’
China’s latest National Party Congress wasn’t the model of transparency, but the market appreciated the overall sense of political stability and policy continuity – and the clear vote of confidence for the continued leadership of General Secretary Xi Jinping, says Raymond Chan, CIO Equity Asia Pacific for Allianz Global Investors.
De-FANGed: 5 Ways the Disrupters Could Be Disrupted
Investors have profited handsomely from FANG stocks and their Big Tech brethren, but Western regulators are responding to growing concerns about their behaviour. Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors, says these masters of high-tech disruption may soon find themselves competing on a more regulated – and more level – playing field.
The Cure for Low Oil Prices Is Low Oil Prices
An abundance of oil, thanks largely to US shale, has pushed down oil prices and sector sentiment. But since that means less investment in new production sources, the bearish market may soon rebalance from fears of oversupply to concerns over shortages – which would push prices higher says Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors.
Expect More Rules and Less Discretion from the ‘New’ Fed
President Trump has the opportunity to overhaul the Federal Reserve by appointing new Fed governors who align with his administration’s views – namely that the current Fed suffers from regulatory over-reach and is less independent than ever, says Steve Malin, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors.
What the Trump Tax Plan Means for Investors
President Trump recently announced the framework for comprehensive US tax reform. Passing the bill will not be easy, says Mona Mahajan, US investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors, but it could simplify the current tax code, increase economic growth and support the US consumer.
8 Takeaways From Allianz Global Investors’ New York Investment Forum
In early September, strategists, economists and portfolio managers from Allianz Global Investors convened in New York for its semi-annual Investment Forum. Their goal? To explore the way forward for clients in a world where taking risk is necessary to earn a return, but where opportunities are getting harder to find.
To Boost Growth, Solve the Productivity Puzzle
In a troubling sign for global economic growth, productivity has been in decline for decades. In the first of a special series on productivity, Neil Dwane, Global Strategist at Allianz Global Investors, explores why businesses, governments and investors need to find ways to solve the productivity puzzle.
Are We Nearing the Peak of Central Bank Liquidity?
As the global economy continues to muddle through, the days of easy monetary policy may have peaked – along with the period of ultra-low yields. We may begin to see changing policies as central banks re-evaluate, which could lead to jittery markets says Hans-Jörg Naumer, Global Head of Capital Markets & Thematic Research with Allianz Global Investors.
How to Prepare for the Next Market Downturn
Fortunate is the financial advisor bullish on US stocks in recent years. But more fortunate will be those who prepare clients for the inevitable market downturn. This is one of most important things an advisor can do says Glenn Dial, Head of Retirement Strategy in the US with Allianz Global Investors.
Why Haven’t New Political Shocks Scared the Markets?
Defying expectations, markets shrugged off the Brexit vote and President Trump’s election. Yet our research shows a clear link between political uncertainty and lower P/E ratios. As such, Stefan Rondorf, analyst at Allianz Global Investors, says markets will soon reassess political risks.
Questions Remain as Political Uncertainty Wanes – For Now
Now that some of Europe’s most critical elections have been resolved, investors looking ahead to the second half of 2017 may want to redirect their focus. This may be the time to take a closer look at other market drivers like economic growth, rising inflation and global monetary policy says Ann-Katrin Petersen, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors.
Mid-Year Outlook: Be More Selective in the Second Half
After a strong first half to 2017 for equities, the message for the remainder of the year is to look for returns more carefully in the second half says Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors. The “country factor” will be key: We believe investors can no longer rely on a rising tide of cyclical data to lift all boats.
Normalizing the Fed’s Balance Sheet – Not so Fast by Steve Malin of Allianz Global Investors
Raising the federal funds rate is just one part of the Fed’s plan for higher interest rates. Another part, according to Steve Malin, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors, is the somewhat tricky process of purging $2 trillion in US Treasury and agency securities from the Fed’s balance sheet.
Books You Should Read This Summer
Why not use summertime to catch up on your reading? Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors, has a summer reading list that combines engaging narratives with timely insight into investing themes. Among the 12 books listed here, we think you'll find something to enlighten your summer.
What It Means to Be Dynamic
Target Date Funds (TDFs) have transformed retirement investing, but the static approach to the glidepath leaves many investors at risk. A more dynamic strategy is needed, and Glenn Dial, Head of Retirement Strategy in the US with Allianz Global Investors, says it all begins with defining what dynamic investing actually is.
Macron Majority Gives His Reforms Momentum
With a new majority in the French National Assembly, President Macron has increased the chances parliament will pass his ambitious reforms aimed at labor and economic growth. But France also faces some hard fiscal realities that may take some time to fix.
The Economics of Populism
In a clear signal from voters who feel left behind by globalization, populist political parties have been gaining ground around the world. This could create serious long-term headwinds for economies and markets – including lower growth and higher inflation – says Stefan Hofrichter, chief economist with Allianz Global Investors.
VIX Stays Level-Headed Despite Wobbly Landscape
Although the volatility index has remained relatively flat this year, Hans-Jörg Naumer, Global Head of Capital Markets & Thematic Research with Allianz Global Investors, says looming political risks, divergent monetary policies and low global productivity should give investors pause. At the same time, central banks are extremely accommodative and the global economy is continuing its strong recovery.
5 Reasons to Expect Higher Oil Prices
Despite a recent bout of plunging prices, Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors, says the oil market should grind higher on solid global demand, renewed supply constraints and still-significant underinvestment. All of which builds a clear case for investing in the energy sector.
When Will Greece Take the Icelandic Road to Recovery?
Greece is back in the headlines with the resumption of bailout talks. As its economy continues to struggle, Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors, wonders if Greece and the EU can learn lessons from Iceland, which found a way to turn short-term pain into long-term gain.
Macron’s Win Is a Loss for Euro-Phobia
With his victory as France's new president-elect, Emmanuel Macron can celebrate – for now. Much depends on whether he can secure a parliamentary majority in June. Nevertheless, Macron’s win helps investors see the more positive side to the European story.
How Will the Fed Evolve Under Trump?
Beset with low rates, slow growth and a new US president who wants a significant shift in policy, Steve Malin, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors, says the Federal Reserve faces one of the most uncertain periods in its 104-year history. What could this mean for investors.
'French Risk Premium’ Could Persist Until June
Markets cheered the prospect of an Emmanuel Macron presidency, but even if he wins, his reforms may lack parliamentary support. As a result, Franck Dixmier, Global Head of Fixed Income for Allianz Global Investors, says the risk aversion of recent weeks could last until France’s legislative elections in June.
EU Awaits Outcome of France's Prolonged Election Season
When the first round of voting kicks off in the French presidential election on 23 April, the outcome will determine not only France’s political future, but whether the EU moves closer to unity in this critical “super cycle” election year.
6 Pressure Points for US Stocks
The highly valued US equity market has served many investors well in recent years, but Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, warns investors should watch for several factors that could put downward pressure on prices. At the top: Trumponomics troubles and growing inflation fears.
Volatility May Wilt as Election Expectations Take Root
Favourable European election results coupled with progress for the Republican growth agenda in the US could soften market uncertainty, says Greg Meier, strategist with Allianz Global Investors. But for the next few weeks, the road still looks bumpy.
Can Your Target Date Fund Provide Lifetime Income?
For Target Date Funds (TDFs), the focus has always been on reaching retirement day with little consideration as to what comes next. Now, on the brink of a baby boomer exodus from the workforce, Glenn Dial, Head of Retirement Strategy in the US with Allianz Global Investors, says TDFs should aim way past the target date to focus on retirement income, and lots of it.
Allianz Global Investors’ House View on Brexit
The UK’s triggering of Article 50 on March 29 is like firing the starting pistol on the process of leaving the EU – but this race will be slow and tortuous. Here is our view on what investors should expect and how they should prepare.
Europe Faces Critical Election ‘Super Cycle’
In the coming months, important elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany will determine more than the fate of individual politicians. Growing populism and anti-Europe sentiment could move the European Union away from integration and toward disintegration says Ingo Mainert, CIO Multi Asset Europe for Allianz Global Investors.
Onward, Comrades! 5 Priorities for a Resurgent Russia
One hundred years after the Russian Revolution, the tsars and the USSR may be gone, but Russia itself is alive and well. Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors says that with the US becoming more isolationist, Russia has a chance to revise its standing with the US and EU – but this time, as an equal.
As China's Bond Markets Open, Investor Interest Grows
Regulators and policymakers in China have been enticing foreign investors with easier access to its bond markets – and David Tan, Asia-Pacific fixed-income CIO with Allianz Global Investors, says it’s working. Of particular interest are green bonds: China has become the third-largest issuer and we expect continued growth in this area.
Will China’s Next ‘Four Modernizations’ Bring Good Fortune?
While China celebrates its Lunar New Year, the reform-minded President Xi is likely polishing up his next Five Year Plan, says Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors. Perhaps he will put his own twist on a predecessor’s strategy and look to strengthen China in four key areas: agriculture, science and technology, defense and industry.
Is Trump’s ‘Red Meat’ the Right Long-Term Diet?
Within hours of assuming office, Donald Trump began issuing executive orders and policy proposals to fulfill his campaign promises. Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, asks if Trump really wants to “make America great again”, is he addressing the long-term structural problems that sorely need fixing?
President Trump: A Preview of the First 100 Days
At the outset of his presidency, Donald Trump is facing the most scrutinized first 100 days in the history of the office. In a time that will set the tone for the next four years, Peter Lefkin, senior vice president of government and external affairs at Allianz of America, previews the hot-button issues confronting the new president.
Positioning Portfolios for Political Shifts and a Changing China
In his roundup of our latest Investment Forum, Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, highlights the top themes driving markets and economies – including China’s growing role in global indices, Trump’s ability to disrupt the status quo, Europe’s super-election cycle and the “hunt for income” going global.
Will Donald Trumpism Bury Davos Elitism?
Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors Neil Dwane says the rumbling sound being heard by politicians and power-brokers at the World Economic Forum in Davos comes from a new political avalanche of populism – one that threatens to sweep away decades of pro-globalization sentiment and change the investment landscape.
Will the Year of the Fire Rooster Ruffle Feathers?
Allianz Global Investor’s Capital Markets and Thematic Research team and analyst Ann-Katrin Petersen say that even though the year ahead will continue to be challenged by uncertainties, market disruptions may prove fleeting—and cooler heads will likely prevail.
2017 Outlook: Focus Shifts to Fiscal Policy & Populist Politics
As the markets close the books on another tumultuous year, Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, says investors should keep watch on the rise of populist politics, China’s re-emergence as a global growth engine and a renewed focus on government spending as interest rates remain low.
5 Good & 5 Bad Scenarios for Investors in 2017
Peering into the next 12 months, Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, looks at how 10 hypothetical events – including a “soft Brexit”, the rise of “green bonds” and a Le Pen victory in France – could affect economies and markets around the world.
Tough-Talking Trump Has Asia on Edge
During his campaign, Trump took a restrictive trade stance that could hurt export-reliant countries in Asia—particularly China. But with continued rebalancing and a regional focus, Stefan Scheurer, economist with Allianz Global Investors, says China's influence in Asia could grow even bigger.
Time to Pay Attention to 'Trumpflation'
With a growing likelihood that Trump's fiscal policies will be inflationary, this could translate into a faster Fed tightening cycle says Greg Meier, strategist with Allianz Global Investors. So will President Trump find it easier to bring back inflation rather than factory jobs?
Upping the Ante: The DOL Rule and Risk Management
The DOL fiduciary rule's far-sweeping changes have placed risk management front and center for financial advisors. From practice management to portfolio risk, Glenn Dial, Head of Retirement Strategy in the US with Allianz Global Investors, says the stakes are elevated, even after the election.
2017 Outlook: Focus Shifts to Fiscal Policy & Populist Politics
As the markets close the books on another tumultuous year, Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, says investors should keep watch on the rise of populist politics, China’s re-emergence as a global growth engine and a renewed focus on government spending as interest rates remain low.
Where to From Here? 5 Post-Election Market Trends
Less than two weeks out from the US Presidential election and the response from financial markets has been swift and dramatic. In the aftershock of this post-election period, Kristina Hooper, US Investment Strategist at Allianz Global Investors, outlines five key market trends impacting investor portfolios.
Election Post-Mortem—Blame it on Monetary Policy
Many political pundits are struggling to provide answers for Donald Trump's surprising election victory. Kristina Hooper, US Investment Strategist at Allianz Global Investors, however, says it may be as simple as an over-reliance on monetary policy, which has resulted in income as well as asset inequality.
Trump’s Victory: Shocking But Not Entirely Surprising
In a presidential election that grew more shocking with each passing week, the results somehow seem fitting. Peter Lefkin, senior vice president of government and external affairs at Allianz of America, reviews how it happened and explains why almost everyone was wrong in predicting the outcome of the 2016 election.