A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
Changes in sentiment may drive the performance of the Eurozone equity markets, even with disappointing economic data.
We expect yields to fall later this year and into 2024 as inflation continues to cool.
The August jobs report confirms the labor market's continued slowdown, which is for now consistent with the Fed's soft-landing desires—but not without warning signs.
Although high-yield bonds have performed well so far this year, we continue to take a cautious view.
Markets are prone to cyclical behavior, which presents risks and opportunities for investors. Here are some basics investors should know about market cycles, recessions, and recoveries.
China's economy may have spillover effects on global economic and earnings growth, but it's unlikely to lead to global financial contagion and send stock markets materially lower.
Taxable municipal bonds may be an attractive option for investors in lower tax brackets, but there are things investors should know before making a decision.
With the path of least resistance for stocks seemingly lower for now, key to watch will be a stabilization in interest rate volatility and clarity on the path of monetary policy.
Foreign stocks are again competitive with their domestic counterparts. Here are four ways to gain exposure.
As businesses worldwide adopt technology, the innovation of AI may result in market leadership changes, global economic growth, and investor opportunities.
Will the economy roll into a formal recession, or is a recovery underway? It's a close call.
Earnings season has thus far been a mixed bag, and despite a notable increase in the beat rate, the market is rightfully shifting focus to guidance for the rest of the year.
The surprise move takes the rating to AA+ from AAA.
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During the past decade, a turnaround in the Golden State has resulted in higher credit quality for many issuers.
Central bank policies are set to diverge from the steady hikes characterizing the first half of 2023, contributing to increased market volatility for the remainder of the year.
In a unanimous decision, Federal Reserve policymakers raised the federal funds rate to 5.5%, the highest point since 2001.
There are multiple factors to consider, including your tax rate.
The recent broadening out in market breadth has been accompanied by frothier investor sentiment, but using sentiment as a market-timing tool is tricky (if not impossible).
A high probability for an El Niño event in the second half of 2023 brings concerns of extreme weather, persistent inflation, supply chain disruptions, and market volatility.
As summer temperatures peak, inflation just won't completely cool down. The question is how much more the Federal Reserve should do about it.
Now that short-term Treasury yields have reached 5%, further upside is likely to be limited.
The recent collection of labor data has painted a mixed jobs picture, but underlying wage strength and still-strong payroll growth will likely keep the Fed in a hawkish position.
Given attractive yields and strong credit conditions, we have a positive view on the municipal bond market for the second half of the year.
India's growth initiatives and demographics may help its economy continue to advance; its stocks seem to have priced in high expectations for the world's fifth-largest economy.
After falling into its own recession last year, the housing market has started to turn decisively higher; but a sustained recovery might not be the strongest elixir for the economy.
We expect generally good performance during the second half of the year, although volatility may increase, especially for high-yield bonds.
Japanese stocks may help boost the performance of international markets although the unique nature of Japan's economic and business structure could pose some risks.
Though recent data suggests China's re-opening growth has slowed, it's likely temporary. As China's recovery continues, it may have implications for U.S. inflation and rates.
With unanimity, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate in its current range, but updated projections suggest this rate-hike cycle is not yet over.
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Most of the things we expected to happen during the first half of the year in fact did: Inflation eased, U.S. economic growth slowed, the Federal Reserve appears to be near the end of its rate-hike cycle, and the U.S. government debt ceiling standoff was resolved before a potential default.
Sometimes it feels like the economy and markets are on different tracks.
The meaning of "wealth" goes far beyond having a lot of money. It's more about what money can do for you.
A broadening out in market performance would help bolster a more sustainable stock rally, but that hinges on increasing clarity for monetary policy, recession risk, and bank stress.
Despite high volatility in the bond market during the first half of the year, what's surprising is how much didn't change.
The drama characterizing the first half of 2023 may abate, with potentially milder returns for investors due to the effects of the Cardboard Box Recession.
The measure ends weeks of negotiation and unease about a potentially catastrophic government default.
The concentration of gains up the cap spectrum isn't itself a precursor to weakness; it's the lack of participation from the "average stock" that warrants some caution.
While we don't expect the U.S. government to default, the uncertainty may heighten market volatility in coming days. Here are answers to some of the questions we're hearing most often.
Although few nations have a debt ceiling similar to the U.S.', rising government debt levels are a widespread global risk that may lead to lower economic output and weaker growth.
Bonds issued by government-sponsored enterprises can offer slightly higher yields than U.S. Treasuries, without requiring investors to take on too much additional risk.
Banks and financial institutions are big issuers of preferred securities, so the recent banking industry volatility has had an impact. Our guidance on preferreds is unchanged but with some caveats.
Analysis shows an extraordinary range of outcomes since the S&P 500's inception in 1928.
As the credit market grows more stringent, investors should consider high-quality, longer-term bonds. Here are some fixed-income strategies.
Political brinkmanship in Washington adds to concerns about the economy.
The central bank likely won't have enough reason to hike rates again this cycle. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see one or two rate cuts later this year.
Shifts in the labor market due to monetary policy tightening would see lagged effects that may not aid central banks' efforts to materially affect core inflation by year's end.
