Second quarter is likely the peak growth rate for both the economy and corporate earnings; with positive economic surprises waning.
Is the stock market disconnected from the economy?
While it’s very early to say the rise in inflation has passed, there are signs that the fastest part of the rebound in inflation might soon be over.
In a complete reversal from what was expected roughly a year ago, the outlook for muni issuers is much brighter.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been getting a lot of attention lately.
A boom in spending has stirred fears of economic overheating, which has coincided with a surge in commodity prices and a lift in traditional inflation metrics.
With commodity prices soaring, money supply growth exploding, and government spending surging, there is a palpable fear of a return to 1970s-style inflation.
Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs)—also known as blank-check companies—have gained immense popularity among investors since the beginning of 2020, despite being around for decades.
Economic and earnings data are in boom territory, with more momentum likely near-term.
Inflation is likely to rise in 2021—but will the rise be sustained? That seems to be the million-dollar question lately.
This week’s unveiling of the American Families Plan, the latest proposal from the White House, makes it clear that President Joe Biden is serious about pursuing some of the individual tax increases he called for during the 2020 campaign.
In recent months, two investment themes have been rewarding investors with outperformance: defense sector companies and those participating in share buybacks.
Although it’s early in the first quarter earnings reporting season, it’s worth a look at the progress so far and the implications for the rest of the season, as well as valuations.
Hundreds of years of history shows us that investment bubbles have been a regularly occurring feature of the financial markets.
Floating-rate notes can help lower a portfolio’s sensitivity to interest rate changes, but they aren’t necessarily the secret weapon to combat a rising-rate environment.
As Shakespeare might put it, “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing” is perhaps an apt way to describe the character of the market so far this year.
Policymakers in major economies have pointed to 2023 as the date the stimulus payback may begin.
Economic growth is picking up and the stock market is trending higher, but in a choppy fashion that lately resembles a “bunny” market more than a bull market.
I am often asked by investors why we do not have formal tactical views on growth vs. value like we do on large caps vs. small caps.
We are often asked if the U.S. dollar will lose its status as the world’s reserve currency.
This probably isn’t the start of a bear market, but it may feel like less a bull market compared with last year’s charge.
U.S. economic growth is accelerating as vaccinations rise and social-distancing measures ease, but hopes for a long-lasting spending boom may hit a couple of speed bumps. Vaccine rollouts in major countries are proceeding at different speeds, but stock market performance contradicts what vaccination data would seem to imply for investors. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted longer-term Treasury yields have risen as investors anticipate stronger economic growth.
Is the stock market disconnected from the economy? Perhaps, but less so lately.
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” -Investor and mutual fund manager Sir John Templeton
What’s a “zombie company”? You may have heard the term in the financial media recently and wondered if it’s something you should be worried about.
Accelerating growth is generally a good thing for stocks, evidenced by bond yields and stock prices typically rising and falling together.
The late-February spike in U.S. Treasury bond yields sent ripples throughout the global markets. As yields surged to the highest level in a year, stocks and commodities sold off sharply, while the dollar rallied.
Looking at the latest economic data reveals V-shaped recoveries in many goods-based indicators; while services has more catch-up to do.
The Year of the Ox looks bullish for China with economists and analysts forecasting GDP growth of 8.1% and earnings growth of 18% for the MSCI China Index. But February holds key developments for China that could impact this outlook, including stock delistings, trade, and COVID-19.
Hope is high that economic growth will accelerate as more people are vaccinated against COVID-19, but so far economic data has been lackluster. Meanwhile, bond investors are expecting inflation despite signs that the economic recovery’s momentum may be stalling. Why does everything seem so disconnected?
This is a new type of exchange-traded ETF that is built differently from a traditional ETF.
As quickly as it soared to the moon, GameStop came back down to earth; but the lessons learned are key to turning day trading speculators into longer-term investors.
The COVID-19 crisis opened up cracks in the muni market, but we don’t expect those cracks to alter the reality that municipal bonds can be a relatively conservative investment option. Many municipalities are under stress, but that’s not a reason to avoid munis, in our view.
When investors talk about “the stock market” they are most often referring to an index that tracks stocks only in their home country. This “home bias” is evident when it comes to the make-up of investors’ stock portfolios. Investors around the world tend to hold mostly domestic stocks.
As expected, the Fed kept rates unchanged; but did make clear its view that vaccines are key to the trajectory of the economic recovery.
Bank loans offer some of the highest yields in the current interest rate environment. We believe their unique characteristics may prevent many investors from considering them, but it may be a mistake to overlook them.
As a review of the year that was, today’s report analyzes and dissects the nature of the K-shaped recovery in both the economy and stock market.
Their decisions in the coming months could have an impact on the markets and investors.
Joe Biden takes the Presidential oath of office this week in the U.S., marking the end of a long U.S. political contest; a year of political challenges is just getting started overseas.
The new year kicked off with a sharp rise in Treasury bond yields, despite unprecedented political turmoil and signs that the economic recovery is slowing.
U.S. stocks have continued to climb amid optimism about a vaccine-led economic recovery, but it’s a narrow path—buoyant investor sentiment could easily be deflated by bad news. Although global economic growth has struggled, an acceleration in vaccinations in major countries could support stronger growth in the second quarter.
It has been an extraordinary start to 2021 in the nation's capital. The images of a mob protesting the outcome of the presidential election by overrunning the U.S. Capitol building on January 6th are already seared into the nation’s collective memory. A week later, the House of Representatives, for the first time in American history, impeached a president for a second time.
Last week was shocking and extraordinarily sad; and as if Americans didn’t have enough with which to contend, it was capped off by a weaker-than-expected December jobs report.
LIBOR is still being retired, just a little later than initially expected.
While Election Day is two months in the rearview mirror, the election is not over. A runoff election in Georgia on Tuesday, January 5th, will determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, a historically unprecedented scenario that will have a profound impact on President-elect Joe Biden's ability to move his policy agenda forward in the first two years of his presidency.
After a powerful rally for stocks for much of 2020, let’s take a look at the biggest potential downside risks for investors in the year ahead. While none of these scenarios make our base case for 2021, a review of the top investment risks in greater depth may be prudent as we enter the New Year.
As expected, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to keep the federal funds target rate in a range of zero to 0.25%; where it’s been since March. A majority of FOMC officials maintained their forecast that the rate would be kept near zero at least through 2023.
September 2 was a momentous day on several fronts. It was the initial pop to all-time highs for both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ; after an impressive run from the March 23 pandemic low. It was also a turning point in terms of market leadership; reflecting budding optimism about a turn-for-the-better in economic data.
Encouraging news about COVID-19 vaccines has boosted hope for stronger economic growth, kicking off a rotation in stocks and equity sectors as investors look to a brighter future. However, near-term volatility is possible, as we’re not yet out of the coronavirus tunnel.
A COVID-19 vaccine could start being administered globally this week.
The planned rollout is good news that has lifted the stock markets around the world. But the reality of the rollout faces risks that could extend the time frame for mass immunizations.
We expect markets to be volatile in coming months while the threat of new lockdowns weighs against the hope of recovery, although we believe we may be on the verge of a period of international stock market outperformance.