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Bibi Blinks
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 10/9/12
On September 27th, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech before the U.N. General Assembly. Although it will be best remembered for his "looney toons" prop of a cardboard bomb which he used to describe when Iran crosses the "red line" (which, appropriately enough, was drawn on the bomb with a red marker), the real story of the speech was his apparent climb down from pressing for an attack on Iran.

Lessons from Scandinavia
by Kaisa Stucke, Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 10/2/12
During the late 1980s and early 1990s, Scandinavian nations suffered through balance sheet recessions. Commentators have suggested that U.S. policymakers could use the Scandinavian response to their crises as a roadmap for resolving the current U.S. situation. As part of our own analysis, we have studied several earlier events to understand the underlying similarities and differences to develop insights into the current event.

Echoes of the Arab Spring
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 9/24/12
In this report, we will discuss the issue of American foreign policy, democracy and the emerging world. Our primary focus will be on the Arab states. From there, we will examine the particular issues of democratization and regime change for a few selected nations in the Middle East. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

The 9/11 Lessons for Terrorists
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 9/17/12
In this report, we will outline potential lessons learned over the past 11 years by terrorist groups. By doing this, we hope to outline how terrorists might act in the future. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

The Problem of Proxies
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 9/11/12
In this report, we will discuss the role of proxies and their use by governments, including a historical perspective of their positive and negative aspects. A short discussion of the regional factors of the Syrian situation will follow, focusing primarily on Iran's problem if the Assad regime is replaced by a Sunni-led government. Interestingly enough, these regional factors also affect the proxy groups, making them more difficult for their sponsors to control.

Israel and the Evangelicals
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 8/28/12
On several occasions, we have noted that Israel enjoys significant leverage over U.S. policy into the November elections. Often, it is assumed that this leverage comes from the influence of American Jews on the political system. Although not unimportant, the numbers, as discussed here, suggest that the Jewish vote is barely significant in only two states, New York and Florida. Even in these two states, capturing all the Jewish voters would not guarantee winning these states.

The Muslim Brotherhoods Long Grind
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 8/21/12
Over the past two weeks, there has been an upswing in violence in the Sinai Peninsula. Last week, Egyptian President Morsi announced the forced retirement of several military leaders, the same men who ran the government after the ouster of the former president, Hosni Mubarak. It isn't completely clear that the two incidents are related, although it does appear that Morsi used the unrest in the Sinai as a way to remove the remnant Mubarak cronies.

The Eurozone Drama Continues
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 8/14/12
In this report, we will review the political and economic structure of the Eurozone. From there, we will discuss the critical event that caused the reversal in safety assets and what this reversal likely means for the geopolitics of the Eurozone. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

The Complicated Kurds
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 8/7/12
Last week, the Syrian Army withdrew from Kurdish areas in the northeastern parts of the country. Kurdish militant groups took over patrolling the area; more importantly, they took control of the border crossings. In this report, we will offer a short history of the Kurds, focusing on the problems they have encountered as a significant minority in four countries. There will be a discussion of the tyranny of colonial borders along with a projection of the longevity of these border arrangements.

The Young General Emerges
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 7/31/12
On July 16th, the official North Korean media reported that General Ri Yong Ho, the militarys Chief of the General Staff, had been dismissed of all duties. Reports suggested that the general had been removed due to illness. General Ri was a close confidant of the late Kim Jong Il and was thought to be tasked with smoothing the transition of the new leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un, the Young General. Ri's exit, along with other events, suggests changes in the Hermit Kingdom.

Escalation in the Middle East
by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 7/26/12
Last week, the fighting in Syria escalated, with the Free Syrian Army, the rebel umbrella group, announcing an attack on Syrias capital, Damascus. Reports indicate that Alawites are starting to flee Damascus for sectarian strongholds on the coast. This information follows the news that the rebels successfully bombed a Syrian intelligence and security facility, killing at least four major figures within the Assad regimes security apparatus.

The Mystery of Chinese Capital Flight
by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 7/17/12
Capital flight is defined as the rapid withdrawal of assets out of a country for political, economic or geopolitical reasons. Since late last year, there have been steady reports indicating that capital flight has been occurring in China. China restricts its capital account; inflows of foreign capital are carefully regulated and private outflows face significant restrictions. Chinese citizens can legally transfer only $50k per year out of the country.

The 2012 Mid-Year Geopolitical Update
by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 7/3/12
As is our custom, we use this early July report to offer our outlook for the next six months. In this issue, we will discuss what we see as the key geopolitical issues that will affect the markets for the rest of 2012. This list is not exhaustive but highlights our greatest concerns.

The Counterrevolution in Egypt
by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 6/28/12
In this report we will begin with a geopolitical history of Egypt, concentrating on the unique geography that has historically shaped its governance. We will discuss the role of the military in Egyptian political life, focusing on its self-perception and its goals. We will also detail the role of the MB as an organized political group in the country. Following this analysis, we will offer our forecast for Egypt and its potential effects on the region.

Syria: Descent into Civil War
by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 6/19/12
In March of last year, small scale protests began in Syria. As protests spread, the response escalated to the point where now it appears Syria may be on the brink of a civil conflict. In this report we will begin with a geopolitical history of the country. Following this analysis, we will describe current conditions and our concerns about the breakdown of social order in Syria, concluding with a summary of how outside powers are trying to manage the direction of any changes in Syria.

Rising Tensions in the South China Sea
by Bill OGrady of Confluence Investment Management, 6/19/12
Right now, the most critical geopolitical risk to the financial markets remains Europe, with the Persian Gulf probably the second most important concern. However, there is value in analyzing situations which may become problematic, even if it is in the distant future. By doing so, it allows investors to become aware of potential situations long before they become issues. We believe it is better to have some familiarity with geopolitical concerns in advance of any major problems.

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2024)
by Team of Confluence Investment Management, 9/1/01

We preserve an allocation to gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks, with an allocation to silver where risk appropriate.
Results 251–267 of 267 found.