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What Rate of Return Will an Investment in Johnson & Johnson Deliver? Part 2
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
I never invest in a common stock without a clear expectation of the future returns that it can generate for me. Consequently, I consider this one of the most important steps in my research and due diligence process.
Valuation is a Measurement of Soundness and Not the Primary Total Return Producer: Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Much of what I write about is related to the importance of valuation in one way or another. I do this, because I am a fervent believer that one of the most important metrics that investors should be considering before investing in a stock is the relative valuation of the shares they are purchasing.
Here is What I Don’t Want as a Dividend Growth Investor
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Achieving long-term success as a dividend growth investor implies a long-term buy-and-hold strategy. The reasons why are simple and straightforward. The primary objective of a committed dividend growth investor is to achieve a growing dividend income stream.
Canadian “Bank-in” for Delicious Yield and Great Value
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
It is no secret that US blue-chip dividend paying stocks are trading at extremely high valuations relative to historical norms. Interest rates remain at all-time lows, and investors hungry for yield have turned to blue-chip dividend growth stocks in order to satisfy their appetites.
A Comprehensive Look at Dividend Growth Stock Valuations Sector by Sector: Part 2
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Finding attractively valued dividend growth stocks is getting harder and harder to do. The overall market has been on a relentless advance for many years now, and high quality dividend paying growth stocks have been leaders.
Premier Dividend Growth Stocks: Is There Any Value? A Sector By Sector Summary Review: Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
As a value investor, I must admit to being very frustrated with the valuations I’m seeing on high-quality blue-chip dividend growth stocks. I have been vigorously searching for fairly valued dividend growth stocks to invest in.
Let’s Go Krogering for Value and Profit
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
In today’s frothy stock market, finding value in dividend growth stocks is hard to do. Unfortunately, most of the premier dividend growth stocks such as those found on David Fish’s CCC lists of Dividend Champions, Contenders and Challengers are currently overvalued.
7 Intriguing Healthcare Growth Stocks in the S&P 500: Part 2
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
The S&P 500 index is commonly used as a benchmark that investors use to measure the performance of their individual portfolios against. However, the S&P 500 is comprised of a very diverse group of companies.
Finding Value in the S&P 500: 9 Healthcare Dividend Growth Stocks: Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Most everyone would agree that the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 is not cheap today. However, there might be a great deal of disagreement regarding precisely how overvalued the S&P 500 currently is.
FOMC Interest Rates and Their Impact on the US Economy: Part 2
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
To me, interest rates and their future direction seems to be obsessively discussed and debated by many investors. So much so, that I often get the impression that many investors believe that interest rates coupled with Federal Reserve policy are the primary drivers of our economy. From my perspective, interest rates and Federal Reserve monetary policy are contributing factors to economic growth and stability. However, I would stop short of considering them of primary importance.
What Will Happen To the Stock Market When Interest Rates Rise? Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Interest rates have been in a freefall for the better part of the past two decades. Moreover, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury, which is the flagship interest rate benchmark, has mostly been below 2% since the beginning of 2012. The 10-year Treasury note did reach 3% by the end of 2013 but has promptly fallen ever since to its current level of 1.59 percent.
These are the Only Dividend Champions and Contenders That Appear Attractively Valued
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
As the stock market continues its relentless advance, attractive valuations are getting harder and harder to find. This is especially true for the highest quality blue-chip dividend growth stocks. Perhaps more importantly, in addition to the market’s relentless advance, there has also been a clear flight to quality - especially with dividend growth stocks. Therefore, the vast majority of the best-of-breed blue-chip dividend paying stocks are currently trading at elevated levels. In other words, finding high quality and value is very rare today in the dividend growth segment.
These Are the Only Dividend Aristocrats I Would Consider Today
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Generally speaking, the overall stock market is fully valued at best, and in many cases significantly overvalued. Therefore, it is very challenging to find sound and attractive stocks to invest in today. The challenge to find good value today is even more pronounced for the prudent dividend growth investor. Low interest rates and a flight to quality have driven the prices of best-of-breed dividend growth stocks to unprecedented highs.
10 Biotech and Specialty Pharma Bargains-Do You Have the Guts to Speculate?
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
There are many investors that believe that the stock market is currently overvalued. To a great extent, they may be correct as there is a lot of excessive valuation to be found in various segments of the market. However, as I believe it is a market of stocks and not a stock market, not everything in today’s stock market is expensive. In fact, there is one sector specifically where bargains galore can be found. That sector is the healthcare sector, and more specifically the subsectors biotechnology and specialty pharmaceuticals.
Answers to the Hardest Decision-When Do I Sell A Stock?
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
I’m going to start this article with the same opening statement that I utilized in a previous article I wrote on knowing when to sell a stock. The most common complaint that I have heard from investors over my 40+ years in the financial services industry is as follows: "Everyone wants to tell me what to buy and when, but no one ever tells me when to sell." Consequently, it seems to me that whether you are a novice investor or a grizzled old veteran, the decision as to when to sell a stock is considered the most difficult decision investors have to make.
Get Higher Returns and More Dividend Income - In Less Time With Less Risk
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Investing in blue-chip dividend growth stocks such as the Dividend Aristocrats or Champions has become very popular with retirees. This is understandable considering the low interest rate environment we find ourselves in. Traditional fixed income investments do not currently offer enough yield for the retired investor to live on. Consequently, current low interest rates, coupled with the possibility of a steadily increasing level of dividend income have made dividend growth stocks a viable and even attractive alternative.
5 Attractive Biotechnology Stocks for Healthy Long-term Returns
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
I am a fervent believer that investors are best served by investing towards a specific investment objective that suits their own unique goals, objectives and risk tolerance. In other words, investing is not always trying to get the highest possible total returns. If that were true, no one would have ever invested in bonds, CDs or other fixed income instruments.
Beware the Financial Destruction of Overvaluation
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
After such an extended bull run it’s only logical to assume that many stocks are trading at frothy valuations. On the other hand, it’s also important to keep in mind that it is a market of stocks and not a stock market. Nevertheless, the truth is that many stocks are now significantly overvalued based on both historic norms and fundamental values. This is not true of all stocks, because it is also true that there are high quality stocks available today that are fairly valued. However, they are admittedly getting more difficult to find.
Emerson Electric: High-yield, Sound Valuation and 59 Consecutive Years of Dividend Increases, Part 2
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
When I’m looking for a stock to add to my portfolio, there’s nothing more frustrating than spending a significant amount of time and effort on research - only to discover that the company in question is significantly overvalued. Consequently, my first step always starts out with an assessment of the relative valuation of the company I am considering. No matter how much I admire the company, its management team and its financial health and strength, I simply refuse to pay more for a stock than I believe it is worth. The most commonly accepted investing principle is to buy low and sell high.
How to Determine the Value of a Cyclical Stock like Emerson Electric: Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Identifying the intrinsic value of a cyclical stock is more difficult than valuing a company with a steady history of growing earnings. However, there are many Dividend Aristocrats and Dividend Champions that are, in fact, cyclical companies. In spite of this cyclicality, they have been able to steadily increase their dividends for over 25 consecutive years in order to make these prestigious dividend growth stock lists. Therefore, since growth of dividend income is important to the dividend growth investor (especially for those in retirement) it only makes sense to include certain cyclical stocks with long histories of growing their dividends in our research activities.
Retired Investors Should Give This Blue-Chip Technology Stalwart a Close Look
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
I believe that building and managing a successful stock portfolio is simple and straightforward, but not necessarily easy. Building and successfully managing a portfolio of individual stocks requires work, a disciplined philosophy and a reasonable commitment of time. But perhaps most importantly, it’s critical to start out with a precise understanding and acceptance of how you approach the investing process.
Mid-cap Dividend Growth Stocks by Sector - Part 2C: REITs and Real Estate Management
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
This is the final installment in my series of articles on fairly valued mid-cap selections. My inspiration to produce these articles was at the request and suggestion from regular readers who were frustrated at the lack of coverage and/or articles on mid-caps. To accommodate those requests, I screened through the S&P 400 mid-cap index with the assumption that it represented a credible universe of high-quality mid-caps. The fact that I was only reviewing the S&P 400 index was missed based on many comments received on my previous articles in this series. In other words, I only included fairly valued research candidates that are members of the S&P 400 index in this series.
9 Fairly Valued Mid-Cap Consumer Discretionary Dividend Growth Stocks: Part 2B
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Mid-cap stocks are often overlooked by investors and not widely covered on Wall Street or many financial websites and blogs. However, I consider it a mistake because there are many mid-size companies that are attractive long-term investment opportunities.
Mid-Cap Dividend Growth Stocks by Sector: Part 2A Regional Banks
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
In part 1 of this series on fairly valued mid-cap investment opportunities I primarily focused on non-dividend paying growth oriented mid-caps. In part 2 of this series I turned my focus to finding fairly valued dividend paying mid-caps. However, as I was evaluating dividend paying mid-caps in the S&P 400 mid-cap index, it became clear to me that the differences between dividend paying mid-caps were more important than the similarities. Therefore, I have grouped the dividend paying mid-caps I found into 3 separate offerings focusing on sectors. In this, part 2A, I will be exclusively covering fairly valued mid-sized regional banks.
10 Mid-Size Stocks for Large-Size Gains: Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Small and mid-sized companies are often overlooked by many or even most investors. That’s unfortunate, because there are many excellent investment opportunities that can be found in these equity classes. However, an argument could be made that between the small and mid-cap equity classes, the best and perhaps less risky investment opportunities are found in mid-caps.
Dynamite Comes in Small Packages: 10 Small Caps for Explosive Returns
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Investing in small-cap stocks is not for everyone. My definition of small-cap is a company whose market is $5 billion or less. However, for those brave souls that are willing to assume a little more risk, they can, under the right conditions, be a very profitable choice. Nevertheless, and in the general sense, small caps offer both advantages and disadvantages that I believe should be clearly understood before utilizing this asset class.
Dividends’ True Contribution to Total Return May Surprise You
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
In recent years, dividends’ contribution to total return has been one of the most heavily-studied topics in the investment world. Several conclusions about the contribution that dividends make to total return have been claimed. However, these conclusions vary greatly. I have seen studies claiming that 90% of returns are attributed to dividends, several claiming 50% or more, and others arguing for a 30% contribution. Ironically, they all seem to be correct depending on the data-sets and/or timeframes being measured.
Which is Best-Investing For Income or Total Return: Part 2
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
There is a long running feud between investors who believe in investing for total return versus those who believe in investing for current income. Both camps are fervent advocates of their respective beliefs, and there seems to be no feasible middle ground or compromise. Unfortunately, I believe that the dogmatic positions of both groups create a roadblock to investing enlightenment. In truth, there are valid arguments supporting both sides of these hotly-debated subjects. On the other hand, there are also valid arguments supporting investing for income over total return, and vice versa.
Dividends Don’t Drive Total Return They Contribute To It: Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
I believe there is a critical piece of investment wisdom that all investors in common stocks should possess. Every common stock investor should have a clear understanding of where and how long-term common stock returns are generated or come from. When an investor does not possess this knowledge, they can be easily led towards drawing erroneous conclusions about their portfolios and/or the individual stocks that they own. Knowledge is power, and the knowledge of where and how long-term stock returns are generated is incredibly enlightening.
Is Facebook a Screaming Buy Or Sell?
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
This article is directed to the individual investor concerned with achieving the highest possible total return. The highest total return will typically come from a true growth stock simply because a faster growing company is worth more than a slower growing company past, present and future. On the other hand, for that statement to be true, a high rate of earnings growth must be consistently achieved. Generating and sustaining a high rate of earnings growth is the tricky part, because although there are a few companies capable of generating higher earnings growth rates, they are rare.
Retired Dividend Growth Investors: Sleep Soundly by Embracing Survivorship Bias
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Before investing in any common stock I believe it’s imperative to know as much about the business behind the stock as you possibly can. However, there are only so many businesses that an individual investor can know anything about. On the US stock exchanges alone, there are approximately 20,000 individual companies to choose from. Therefore, logic would dictate that every individual investor needs a process or system for separating the wheat from the chaff.
Why It’s a Mistake To Be Raising Cash In This Market
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
It appears that I have become caught up in a spirited discussion regarding holding cash in investment portfolios. However, I believe that my position on this important subject is being misrepresented. Therefore, I felt compelled to offer this article for clarification of my true position and beliefs on the utilization of cash in portfolios.
Suffering Stock Market Stress?
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
It would be an understatement to call the recent stock market activity turbulent. High stock price volatility makes investors anxious and some people even become downright frightened. These emotional responses are often exaggerated for people in or near retirement. Therefore, I contend that all investors need to find ways to keep their emotions in check in order to avoid panicking, which typically leads to the making of a devastating financial mistake.
Researching United Technologies: Here’s How I Do It
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
One of the greatest challenges that authors face when posting articles on financial blogs is how much information they should include and how much they should exclude. Space is limited, and many readers prefer a short write-up over long dissertations. Therefore, most authors (yours truly included) attempt to summarize their positions in the fewest words possible. However, this approach implies that readers will fill in the blanks between what is said and what is left out. Unfortunately, that is not what always happens.
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In this Market?
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
When the stock market turns bad, like it has been recently, investors find it extremely difficult to remain positive. As a result, people tend to be more cynical during bad times than they would normally be during better times. When this happens, it becomes all too easy to paint every stock in the stock market with the same negative brush. Since most stocks will, temporarily at least, experience falling prices during a bad market, the distinction between good stocks and bad stocks can become blurred.
Simplify Your Research Process and K.I.S.S. Your Worries Goodbye
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Most everything I write about is based on my belief in value investing as a sound, prudent and profitable long-term investing strategy. At its core, value investing relates to getting value on your money with investing just as it would to getting value for anything you would purchase. I feel safe in saying that no one wants to pay more than they should for anything that they purchase. This would apply to the basic necessities of food, clothing and shelter, and everything else that we would want to buy. Consequently, I don’t think it should be any different when we are buying stocks.
10 Attractive Dividend Growth Stocks Poised to Become the Next Dividend Champions Or Aristocrats
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
I screened the Dividend Contenders list provided by fellow Seeking Alpha Author David Fish searching for attractive valuation. This article presents 10 Dividend Contenders that I considered most attractive based on valuation and forecast long-term earnings and dividend growth. I want to be clear that these selections are not offered as a portfolio. Instead, these are 10 individual selections with various degrees of safety, yield and valuation levels that prospective investors can choose from.
10 Undervalued Dividend Champions For 2016: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Dividend Champions/Aristocrats are the go-to dividend paying stocks for prudent investors desirous of a safe, predictable and growing stream of income on the common stock portion of their retirement portfolios. As most investors are aware, in order to be classified as a Dividend Champion/Aristocrat a company must meet the stern test of consecutively increasing their dividend for 25 years or longer. Of all the dividend paying stocks in the universe, only a select few make these prestigious lists.
Why Getting Valuation Right Is So Important To Retired Dividend Growth Investors
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Although getting valuation right before you buy a stock is critically important to the long-term oriented retired dividend growth investor, it is not a short-term market timing concept. My point is that short-term market movements are typically volatile and unpredictable. The reason is simple. Over short periods of time, which I define as less than a business cycle (3- 5 years), emotion has a major effect on stock prices.
Southern Company: Invest While the Yield Is Still High
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
In consideration of today’s low interest rate environment, fixed income securities offer little in the way of return. Moreover, the safety characteristics normally associated with fixed income are also potentially upside down. Since early 1982, the interest rates available with fixed income have been in a continuous freefall. This has presented both good and bad news for the conservative investor desirous of a high and safe income stream on their portfolios.
Celgene: A Primer on Growth Stock Value Investing (GARP): Part 2
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
This article is the second in a two-part series on applying the principles of value investing. In part 1 found here my primary focus was on the benefits of investing in fundamentally strong dividend growth stocks when they are out of favor, and therefore, undervalued as a result. In this part 2, I will be turning my attention to determining the fair value of growth stocks. Although the underlying principles of value investing apply, assessing the fair value of a true growth stock differs greatly from valuing a dividend paying company.
Retired Investors: Apply a Value Investing Strategy and Earn More Income and Higher Returns
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Value investing produces safe, powerful long-term results, but it is often misunderstood. This is why most of the greatest investors that have ever lived have employed some form of value investing as an integral part of their overall stock investing strategy. However, the term, concept or strategy called value investing does not necessarily universally apply. Like many financial terms and concepts, there are many nuances that pertain to the general concept of investing for value in common stocks.
Retirees: I Did Not Buy IBM to Sell, It’s About The Dividend Income Stupid
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
There are many investing strategies and principles that retired investors can utilize to reduce the risk associated with investing in equities (stocks) for their retirement portfolios. Choosing to invest in the highest quality stocks your mind can conceive sits at the top of the list. There are many components that investors can analyze and examine to determine whether a company is high quality or not.
The Best Way to Reinvest Your Dividends for Retirement
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Reinvesting your dividends received from high-quality dividend growth stocks is a great, relatively conservative and proven way to build wealth over the long term. This is especially true and appropriate for investors in the accumulation phase that are planning for future retirement. Accumulating additional shares of dividend growth stocks can, and will, provide an increasing and eventually larger stream of income available at retirement when income is needed most.
Retirees: The Risks, Dangers and Advantages of Reaching For Yield: Part 2B
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
There is an undeniable fact that differentiates investing when in retirement versus investing while you are still working. When you are employed, you are working for your money. However, once a person truly enters their retirement years, the situation reverses itself. When in retirement you begin the stage in your life where your money must work for you. In my opinion, this changes the investing dynamic considerably.
83 Attractive Dividend Growth Stocks for Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 2A
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
I recently completed a 3 part series of articles offered to assist retired investors in designing the equity portion of their retirement portfolios. In part 1 of this series found here I presented Peter Lynch’s 6 broad categories of stocks (businesses) that he wrote about in his best-selling book “One Up On Wall Street.” The primary objective of this first article was simply to provide the reader a general idea of the various categories of common stocks that were generally available to choose among.
Designing a Dividend Growth Portfolio for a Specific Retirement Yield Objective: Part 1
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Managing an investment portfolio is a very personal matter. Consequently, the most important consideration is to design a portfolio that meets your own unique goals, objectives and risk tolerances. Everyone is different, and consequently, every investment portfolio can and should be appropriately different as well. Stated more straightforwardly, I do not believe in cookie-cutter or one-size-fits-all approaches to portfolio design.
Designing the Common Stock Portion of Your Retirement Portfolio: Concentrated or Diversified Part 3
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Designing the common stock portion of your retirement portfolio is very challenging. For starters, there is no absolutely perfect or even best way to design a stock portfolio. However, there are many effective strategies that have produced successful long-term results. The key to success is to find and implement the strategy that best fits your own unique goals, objectives, needs, and most importantly - risk tolerances.
Choosing Common Stocks That Make Sense for Your Retirement Portfolio: Part 2
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Choosing the most appropriate stocks for the common stock portion of your retirement portfolio is vitally important. In part 1 of this series found here I presented the 6 broad categories of stocks (businesses) that renowned mutual fund manager Peter Lynch presented in his best-selling book "One Up On Wall Street." I contend that the 6 categories that Peter Lynch wrote about establish a solid foundation of understanding of what’s generally available in the common stock universe.
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