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Results 901–950
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A Contrarian Case for Brazil
Many investors in Brazil, including us, have been a little frustrated over the past couple of years with its lack of growth and progress. Gross domestic product (GDP) in Brazil grew a mere 0.2% in 2014 (estimated), a far cry from the 7.5% it saw in 2010. However, we believe Brazil has all the elements in place to achieve much higher rates of growth if the political will is there.
Hasenstab on Global Growth: Headwinds or Tailwinds?
While some forecasters predict gloomy global growth this year, the contrarian-minded Dr. Michael Hasenstab, chief investment officer, Templeton Global Macro Group (formerly known as Templeton Global Bond Group), has a different view. He aims to counter what he sees as “excessive pessimism” surrounding the global economy and outlines why he believes the recent plunge in oil prices could prove a tailwind, not only for economic growth in the United States, but also in Europe. He also offers his scorecard regarding Japan’s monetary policy experiment dubbed “Abenomics.”
Monetary Policy Matters
This year we expect the divergence in monetary policy among the world’s central banks to be a key theme and a likely driver of asset flows. For now, the scorecard seems to be tilted toward monetary easing since in the first month of 2015 alone, 14 central banks engaged in some form of monetary policy loosening, generally in the form of interest rate cuts or asset purchases.
Complexity, Critical States and Tributaries of Uncertainty
For long periods of time, the markets can advance relatively smoothly until a sudden onset of chaos occurs, a “tipping point” that quickly changes the picture. Some might say the recent drop in oil would be a case in point. Brooks Ritchey, senior managing director at K2 Advisors, Franklin Templeton Solutions, explores the tipping points that trigger dramatic market turns, and ponders whether he thinks global equities may be teetering on the edge of one today.
Demystifying - and Defeating - Deflation
Consumers who have been raised to fear inflation may find it hard to understand why falling prices could ever be negative. Like many things in life, however, too much of a seemingly good thing sometimes can spell trouble. Donald Taylor, president and chief investment officer, Franklin Equity Group®, US Value, explains why, much like a football or basketball, an economy grappling with deflation is not in its optimal condition.
Will China’s Year of the Goat Bring Out the Market Bulls?
According to the Chinese calendar, 2015 is the Year of the Goat (or sheep), creatures that are typically peaceful in nature but can also be stubborn, while exhibiting herd-like behavior. I’ve invited my colleague Eddie Chow, senior executive vice president and managing director, Templeton Emerging Markets Group, to share his perspective on some key themes our team is watching in 2015 for China, and whether we think market bulls, bears or goats can be friends this year.
Active Opportunities in a Passive World
Investors have heard the drumbeat for years that the days of actively managed mutual funds are numbered. After all, some experts maintain, the performance of active funds, especially after fees are removed, typically fall short of those of passive index funds, especially when the stock market is on an upswing. But the authors contend, with apologies to Mark Twain, that reports of the demise of actively managed funds have been greatly exaggerated. And, with the help of some prominent academics, they make the case for staying active.
Weighing the Odds of Compromise in Greece, and the “Grexit”
Against a backdrop of growing dissatisfaction with Greece’s bailout terms [imposed by the “troika” of lenders comprised of the European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund], the country’s parliament failed to decisively elect a president in December 2014, resulting in the dissolution of the parliament and the calling of new elections for January 25, 2015.
Reforms in Asia Bring Big Potential for Small Companies
At Templeton Emerging Markets Group, we believe Asia’s combination of rapid economic growth, generally strong national finances and economic fundamentals has created an attractive landscape for equity investors. Seismic changes have been taking place in Asia’s political arena over the past couple of years, including major elections, leadership transitions and even a military coup. These political shifts have economic reform implications as well.
Global Economic Perspective: January
by Christopher Molumphy, Michael Materasso, Roger Bayston, Michael Hasenstab, John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments,
After a much better-than-expected annualized growth rate of 5% in the third quarter of 2014, the stars would seem to be fairly much aligned for continued US growth in the months ahead. Job growth has continued apace, interest rates and energy prices have remained low, and consumer and business confidence has been buoyant. As we start the new year, the main areas of uncertainty would seem to be the pace of growth and the implications of recent price and employment trends for the timing of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
2015 Investment Outlook: Emerging Markets Still Global Growth Drivers
We at Templeton Emerging Markets Group believe high economic growth rates will remain a key attraction of many emerging markets in 2015. Even with major economies like Brazil and Russia slowing down, overall economic growth in emerging markets during 2015 is expected to be comfortably in excess of developed markets, with China and India likely to drive the Asian region to particularly strong growth.
2015 Investment Outlook: EuropeThe Saga Continues
Like television fans deciphering a season-finale cliffhanger, investors have been left with unanswered questions about the eurozone as 2014 draws to a close. Will the European Central Bank unleash full quantitative easing? Will the eurozone fall into a recession? David Zahn, head of European Fixed Income and portfolio manager, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, gives his perspective on what he thinks may lie ahead as the eurozones drama continues into 2015.
Oil and Emerging Markets: A Double-Edged Sword
The price of oil has plummeted this year as a result of increased volatility in most markets and a temporary imbalance of supply and demand. In view of continued long-term world growth, particularly in emerging- and frontier-market countries, we believe oil prices will probably not suffer from a prolonged price slump. As we see it, the demand for raw materials in general, including not only oil but also iron ore, copper, nickel and agricultural products, is still likely to increase over the long term with increased global growth.
Global Economic Perspective: December
by Christopher Molumphy, Michael Materasso, Roger Bayston, Michael Hasenstab & John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments,
With 321,000 jobs added, the initial US nonfarm payroll report for November was much stronger than markets expected and brought job growth this year close to levels last seen in the late 1990s. Added to upward revisions in September and October jobs data, the nonfarm payrolls data reinforces the view that whatever is occurring in the rest of the world, the US economy appears to remain firmly on track to record reasonably strong growth in the months ahead. And while fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth this quarter for the United States is expected to be lower than the third-quart
Draghi Crosses the Rubicon while Juncker Peddles "Europhemisms"
The announcement by newly installed European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker of a package designed to secure 315 billion of investment for the eurozone garnered a lot of press interest in late November. However, John Beck, director of Fixed Income, London, and portfolio manager, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, believes a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi at a bankers conference in Frankfurt earlier in the month offers more practical insight for investors. Here he outlines lessons to take from Draghis speech in the lions
Global Economic Perspective: November
by Christopher Molumphy, Michael Materasso, Roger Bayston, Michael Hasenstab & John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments,
Steady improvements in US employment and relatively good economic growth figures mean that debate over when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin to tighten policy continues to be the order of the day. US job growth increased at a fairly brisk pace in October, and numbers for the previous two months (already good) were revised higher. Since the start of 2014, US employers have added more than 220,000 workers on average each month, which should be sufficient to sustain economic momentum after an initial reading showed annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.5% in the third quarter
The Implications of Easing
Just as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced the conclusion of its long-running quantitative easing (QE) program, the Bank of Japan surprised markets by announcing the expansion of its own easing regime. Mark Mobius, Executive Chairman, Templeton Emerging Markets Group, and Michael Hasenstab, Chief Investment Officer, Global Bonds, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, weigh in on the implications of these central bank actions, as well as current European Central Bank (ECB) policy, and what they could mean for investors on both the equity and fixed income side.
Indonesian Optimism
Southeast Asia represents one of the fastest-growing regions in the world today, and is one that we are excited about as investors. The Templeton Emerging Markets Group held our semiannual analyst conference in Jakarta in September, and one of the key reasons for choosing that location was to observe and discuss the changes and challenges on the ground with the new regime of President Joko Widodo. Ive invited my colleague Tek Khoan Ong to pen some thoughts on the outlook and investment opportunities in Indonesia today.
Has Europes Recovery Story Turned Back a Page?
The European economy at large had been moving forward in the wake of the 20072009 global financial crisis and subsequent sovereign debt crisis, spurred by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghis pledge to do whatever it takes to save the euro in 2012 and the implementation of austerity measures in the eurozone periphery. In recent months, the recovery seemed to have stalled, with some countries, including the eurozones engine of growth- Germany - flirting with recession.
Octobers Market Ups and Downs Put Into Perspective
Global equity markets went on a rollercoaster ride in October, although given the cauldron of global issues that were brewing for some time and the months history of big moves, it shouldnt be all that shocking many investors got spooked. While much of the media focused on the short-term panic, long-term investors used such pullbacks to search for bargains.
Three Words for Brazil
As long-time investors in Brazil, the recent presidential election has been of keen interest to us. One can certainly say its been an interesting race! The market had been volatile based on the changing polls leading up to the election; there were hopes that new leadership would ignite a positive new direction for Brazils economy, which hasnt experienced the type of economic boom many (including us) had hoped forand believe is possible.
Digging Deep for Value in Volatility
Selloffs like those seen recently in US equities have provided a respite from soaring share prices for deep value investors, and they have been out in force, scouring the markets for quality stocks at bargain prices. Grace Hoefig, research analyst and portfolio manager for Franklin Equity Groups US Value Equity team, says that recent stock market dips have presented value opportunities in some market sectors, but, as through all market conditions, a little patience and a lot of research and flexibility are required to uncover them.
Blurring the Lines Between Emerging-, Frontier- and Developed-Market Stocks
There has been some convergence in terms of how one might classify emerging-, frontier- or developed-market companiesand how they might fit into investors portfolios. Recently, we have noted an increase in liquidity and transparency of many frontier-market stocks (the smaller and lesser-developed subset of emerging markets).
A Treasury Market Disconnect
As the US economy continues to show signs of strength and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to wind down its quantitative easing (QE) program, one would think the US Treasury markets would start reflecting a potential rise in inflation, and the eventuality of Fed monetary policy tightening. However, there has been a bit of disconnect in terms of behavior on the long end of the Treasury yield curve.
Rethinking Core Fixed Income in a Rising-Rate Environment
Michael Hasenstab, chief investment officer, Global Bonds, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, says it is time for fixed income investors to think outside traditional boxes. He believes that with todays market environment and the prospect of rising US interest rates on the horizon, investors need to rethink their core fixed income portfolio. He makes the case for an actively managed, global, unconstrained fixed income strategy.
Emerging from the Global Competitiveness Ranks
The World Economic Forum (WEF) recently released its annual Global Competitiveness Report, which details the strengths and weakness of 144 countries in myriad factors including education, infrastructure, health and technology. There arent many huge surprises in the developed markets, as most countries overall rankings were fairly stable from the prior year. There were, however, a few interesting shifts in the ranks among emerging markets: some making leaps forward, and others, regressing.
Reading Fed Tea Leaves
Monetary policy is of keen interest to fixed income investors, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has been known to be particularly obtuse when it comes to interest-rate talk. One thing is clear: The Fed is winding down its longstanding quantitative easing (QE) program. Whats not so clear: when the Fed will actually raise short-term interest rates.
A Revolutionary Idea: Investing in Europe (even Russia)
The eurozone appeared to have emerged from a prolonged recession when conflict in Ukraine intensified earlier this year with Russias annexation of Crimea. The continued complexity of the crisis in Ukraine now threatens to derail Europes fragile economy, and European stocks have suffered. That said, more attractive valuations in Europe may lure investors back to European stocks, according to Tucker Scott, portfolio manager and executive vice president, Templeton Global Equity Group. He sees opportunity through the fog of crisis and makes a case for finding value in Europe&m
“You’re Going to Need a Bigger Boat”: Alpha and Interest Rates
Caution has been the dominant sentiment among investors in recent times even as equities have continued to march along. But as the prospect of rising US interest rates becomes ever more real, Brooks Ritchey, senior managing director at K2 Advisors, Franklin Templeton Solutions, takes a look at how some individuals and institutions are changing their guarded approach. He says alternative investments could find increased interest among savvy investors as interest rates start to tick higher.
Will the Russia-Ukraine Crisis Chill Europe’s Recovery?
As the crisis in Ukraine and resulting geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West continues with no durable solution yet, many investors have responded by exiting European companies with exposure to the Russian economy. But even as evidence mounts that the Ukraine crisis is taking a toll on many European economies, it would be imprudent for long-term investors to give up on investing in Europe. Strong corporate earnings momentum, high dividend yields and the possibility of additional support from the European Central Bank (ECB) are just some of the reasons why he remains confident that,
The Leapfrog: The Role of Technology in Accelerating Emerging Markets Growth
The potential for emerging and frontier markets to realize accelerated economic growth as a result of new technology transfer comes up regularly in our research findings. We have been increasingly excited about a new developmentthe capacity for new technology, particularly related to data over the Internet, to completely bypass swathes of older technology and business activity. We think this could lead to even more dramatic economic progress. In effect, the emerging markets are leapfrogging over the old technology and taking advantage of the newest technology today.
ECB Measures Highlight Draghis Determination
The reduction in eurozone interest rates announced on September 4 by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi came as a bit of a surprise to some market players. But David Zahn, Head of European Fixed Income and portfolio manager, believes that this move, along with the confirmation of the commencement of the banks asset-backed securities purchase program, is very much in line with its previous action and suggests a central bank president who is in control and determined to get the eurozones economy back on track.
Are US Stocks Reacting Rationally?
When major market indexes reach new heights, some investors may become wary. Given that the US stock market has enjoyed robust total returns over the past five years (20092013), its only natural to question the sustainability of rising stock prices.Grant Bowers, portfolio manager of Franklin Growth Opportunities Fund, believes many of the same drivers of stock market performance over the past few years remain in place, including low inflation, healthy corporate profits and accommodative monetary policy. However, he also cautions that volatility is likely to pick up, particularly
An Unconstrained View of Corporate Credit Amid the Rate Debate
July 2014 brought a summer swoon to the US high-yield sector, as selling pressure hit despite what many analysts by and large dubbed a respectable second-quarter corporate earnings season. Whatever the reason, many investors became suddenly spooked. Eric Takaha, director of the Corporate & High Yield Group and senior vice president, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, is not terribly concerned by what he views as short-term market volatility. He sees the recent selloff as not necessarily unhealthy, and he still sees supportive long-term fundamentals for corporate credit. He takes a
Touring the Investment Landscape in the Czech Republic
My team and I have been touring Central and Eastern Europe this summer, and our travels recently took us to the Czech Republic. Its a country with an interesting history, and from our perspective, it also holds a variety of interesting potential investment opportunities, too.
European Bank Stocks: Time to Buy, or Bail?
In recent months, European banks have been under increased regulatory scrutiny, meeting the ire of regulators (in the United States in particular) for a range of alleged improprieties, resulting in sizable financial penalties. Throw in a bailout-inducing crisis at Portugals Esprito Santo bank, and its perhaps no surprise that share prices of many bank stocks in Europe have languished this year. These developments have provided investors with a stark reminder of the risks associated with investing in the banking sector.
Global Economic Perspective: August
The US economy seemed to move into a higher gear during the second quarter, when gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached an estimated annual rate of 4%, supported by personal consumption and inventory build-up. Its first-quarter downturn also was not quite as severe as previously thought, falling by an annual rate of 2.1% instead of the 2.9% initially reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Winds of Change in Saudi Arabias Investment Climate
One of the most anticipated financial events in the Middle East region finally could come to pass in the near future the opening of the Saudi Arabian stock market to foreign investors. From my point of view, the Saudi Capital Market Authoritys announcement is a game-changer for the region.
A Strengthening Case for European Bonds
The pace of the eurozones economic recovery has been so slow that many people are now asking whether quantitative easing (QE) is inevitable to support a recovery and prevent deflation. But David Zahn, portfolio manager for Franklin Global Government Bond Fund, thinks recent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions in the European financial markets already amount to QE. More importantly, he thinks the extensive set of measures that the ECB has announced not only may support Europes economic recovery, but bring a highly favorable backdrop for European fixed income investments gene
A Mid-Year Crossroads for US Equities?
After a year when it seemed as if US equities could move only higher, vulnerabilities have begun to surface in 2014. Equities now seem to be at a mid-year crossroads, with many investors asking whether there is still potential upside to explore in the marketor at least, certain sectors. Don Taylor, chief investment officer, Franklin Equity Group, US Value, and portfolio manager of Franklin Rising Dividends Fund, thinks theres still value to be found in the US market over the long term. And, hes using setbacks to add stocks to his dividend-minded portfolio.
Standing By Convictions in European Equities
European equities have garnered a fair share of attention lately as leading indicators suggest economies in the region are starting to recover from years of crisis and austerity-induced recessions. While some observers will point to recent equity market volatility as a sign that investors should remain defensive when selecting stocks in the region, Philippe Brugere-Trelat, executive vice president and portfolio manager, Franklin Mutual Series, says hes encouraged by recent developments.
Perspectives from the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group
by Christopher Molumphy, Michael Materasso, Roger Bayston, Michael Hasenstab, and John Beck of Franklin Templeton Investments,
In early July, there was a noticeable disconnect between the median forecast of Fed officials for interest rates by end-2015 and the markets forecast, as expressed in the federal funds futures rate. But if unemployment continues to decline and inflation to pick up in the coming months, the danger for bond market participants is that their predictions for interest rates may be too low and will have to be adjusted.
Fixed Income Outlook: Moving From Zero
Some prior market prognostications of rising rates have proven slow to play out as global central banks, namely the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank (ECB), have continued to ramp up easing measures and the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) has only slowly begun to lay off the gas pedal recently.
Strategies for Income-Seeking Investors
Many income-seeking investors have traditionally centered their portfolios around government bonds, often failing to consider other asset classes. Ed Perks, executive vice president and director of portfolio management, Franklin Equity Group, believes equities can be a key part of an income-oriented portfolio, although individual stock selection is particularly important as valuations rise and interest rate dynamics may change.
Results 901–950
of 1,239 found.
