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Hopes, Dreams and College Savings Solutions
Its one of those universal truths that from the day their babies are born parents are filled with hopes, dreams and fears for their children. Those hopes and dreams typically include a successful career which often starts with a college education. The thought of a college education can lead to one of parents biggest fearsnot being able to foot the bill. Given the rising cost of college, financing a four-year degree for one or more children can be a daunting prospect for parents juggling day-to-day living expenses while trying to save for other investment goals like their own retirement too.
Searching for European Solutions, and Dividends
As the European debt crisis rages on, people in the eurozone are voicing their opinions about austerity measures, bailouts and such, not just on the streets, but also at the polls. As the winds of political change swirl, the future of the eurozone seems to hang in the balance. Tucker Scott, portfolio manager of Templeton Foreign Fund, and a vocal fan of a thorough vetting process, says hes focusing on long-term outlooks, not just todays headlines. And, hes finding select European stocks with dividend-growth potentialin some cases even better opportunities than in the U.S.
Reform in India: A Work in Progress
The global investment community has been up in arms (and rightly so) about the Indian governments attempt to address possible past tax evasion through retroactive tax measures. Many investors started to express their disapproval by withdrawing their dollars, and amid the pressure, the Indian Finance Ministry decided to hold off on enacting the general anti-avoidance rule (GAAR) for a year. I believe this is a step in a positive direction, although the debate has simply been delayed and not completely resolved. And, retroactive capital gains taxes are still on the table.
Africa: Investing in the Cradle of Civilization, Part 3: Ghanas Golden Opportunties
This year could prove an interesting one for Africas west coastal country, Ghana. Presidential and parliamentary elections are slated to be held by year-end, the results of which are almost sure to impact the shape of the countrys future. President John Atta Mills has stated in the press that he will take all necessary constitutional steps to ensure the conduct of free, fair and transparent elections. Im encouraged by the economys 14% growth in 2011 (thats faster than China!), and would be pleased to see evidence of more positive momentum.
A Taylor-ed View of Dividends
The baby boomer generation, people born in the U.S. from 1946 19601, numbers some 78 million and is now moving into retirement. Taylor challenges this group in particular to think differently about their investments given the current economic climate. We are currently in a low-growth, very low interest rate environment and I really dont think thats going to change too much anytime soon. Dividends and dividend yield in the equity market matter a lot more than they did before..."
A Mixed Fixed Landscape
The lingering low-rate environment in the U.S, Eurozone, Japan and some other nations has many yield-seeking investors feeling stuck in the mud. At its April policy meeting, the Federal Reserve pledged to keep its key short-term interest rate exceptionally low at least through late 2014. Some other global central banks, even in emerging nations, have pushed their rates lower too this year to spur growth. On top of that, many countries are also still trying to dig out of debt, but seem to be spinning their wheels.
Africa: Investing in the Cradle of Civilization: Part 2
Africa is well known for its wealth of natural resources. These riches have attracted global investors, most notably from emerging market countries such as China, India and Brazil. Many of these investors have been seeking raw materials for their own economic development and markets for their industries. In return, many African countries have been receiving vitally needed infrastructure such as transport links, power stations, schools and hospitals, which brings into play another great African resource: a huge and youthful population.
Africa: Investing in the Cradle of Civilization: Part 1
Africa is widely regarded as the cradle of civilization. Building on its storied history as the bedrock for humankind, Africa is also a continent of ample investment opportunity, provided you have the resolve to be in it for the long haul. My team and I look at Africa as two parts: (1) sub-Saharan Africa where South Africa and Nigeria dominate and (2) the North African markets, where Egypt is the largest. Of course the South African market is much larger and more developed than the other markets in sub-Saharan Africa.
Chinas Landing Pattern
Our main investment themes in general have been focused on consumers and commodities. It is our belief that Chinese consumers are likely to continue gaining clout, and Chinese macroeconomic policy has increasingly been moving from an export-based model to one fueled by domestic demand. We also expect that demand for hard and soft commodities should remain strong as China and many other emerging markets industrialize, gain wealth and increase spending on infrastructure, which tends to tilt the balance between supply and demand in favor of producers.
Myanmar: Opening the Door to Democracy
As I have always maintained that with opportunities come risks. Myanmar is no exception. At this moment there is a lot of euphoria and excitement about the possibilities, but investors should try to avoid getting caught up in emotion. Its important to realize that the development of capital markets (bonds and stocks) takes time. One should be cautious about potential over-speculation, which tends to run high in the early stages of development. Investors often try to rush in early and can potentially push the price of stocks too high, which can in turn make valuations expensive.
Readers Questions Answered Part IX
I agree with your outlook on the emerging economies. My concern is the Eurozone, where there is political and currency instability. There is talk that one or more countries may leave the Eurozone. This could be a shock to the financial world, affecting currencies, and banks with exposure may tumble. How would you assess this risk? I believe the Europeans are on the right track and are addressing the fiscal issues facing not only Greece, but other countries in the Eurozone. Ultimately, these are issues impacting all developed countries, includng the U.S. and Japan.
Following the (Dividend) Yield Signs
Flush with cash on their balance sheets, many U.S. companies have increasingly been rewarding shareholders in the form of dividends over the past year. Thats good news to the many investors who have sought out dividend-paying stocks for potential relief in todays yield-scarce environment. Alan Muschott, is a vocal fan of not just dividends, but growing dividends. In a recent interview he shared his views on the dividend, including technophile-favorite Apples announcement that it plans to declare a dividend for the first time in more than two decades. Read on to see what he had to say.
Balancing Perception, Reality, Equities and Fixed Income
Never underestimate the power of perception to influence peoples fiscal behavior. Perception is such a significant influence, in fact, that economic tea-leaf readers have developed a myriad of surveys and indicators to monitor individuals perceptions of the investing environment because perceptions canand domove markets. When sentiment is negative, investors tend to shift out of assets they perceive as risky and into assets they perceive as safe. Ed Perks, portfolio manager of Franklin Balanced Fund and Franklin Income Fund, is well aware of the role perception plays in the markets.
Emerging Market Brands: From Backstage to Center Stage
If the growth of the emerging market consumer class persists, it should translate into more clout for local consumer brands. The global emerging markets middle class is anticipated to grow from 430 million in 2000 to 1.2 billion by 2030.3 By some estimates, China and India are expected to account for two-thirds of the expansion in emerging markets.2 Its not a given, but such a large group of people with diverse tastes in consumer goods could be a boon to emerging brands over the long term.
Municipal Bonds: What a Difference a Year Makes
Nows an exciting time for investors to consider this asset class, which is on firmer footing today. In brief: We believe the fear and dire predictions about municipal bonds last year were largely unfounded and misguided. We think the municipal bond market is now trading on strong fundamentals. Fiscal constraints remain in the marketplace; we need to be disciplined and responsible in our investing. In our opinion, its nonsensical to compare the U.S. municipal marketplace to sovereign-debt countries. We are staying more defensive; we think its the most prudent course of action.
A Balancing Act
The balancing act between inflation and growth that economies often face is perhaps even more pronounced in the emerging markets world: stimulate growth too much, and inflation could flare, but stamp out inflation too hard, and growth could freeze. The fire of inflation seems to have moderated and some central banks have taken actions to stimulate growth. I believe the fundamentals in many emerging markets look supportive of these actionsas long as it doesnt tip out of balance. Inflation is a big challenge, and I believe it will probably be a very important consideration going forward.
Drilling Into Fuel Prices
Gasoline, deodorant, dishwashing, liquid, eye glasses, crayons.What does this list of seemingly random items have in common? They are all made from refined crude oil.1 So even if you dont feel pain at the gas pump, you probably rely on more products made with or from crude oil than youd think. And of course even non-oil based products are generally shipped via fuel-consuming transport vehicles, so youre bound to feel the pinch in the form of fuel surcharges or price hikes sooner or later.
Singapore Gateway to Southeast Asia
Viewing the region from the now 20-year old seat of our Singapore office, what we see in Southeast Asia is a generally favorable combination of rising per-capita incomes and a relatively young population, a recipe with the potential to fuel the appetite for a wide variety of consumer goods. The challenges Southeast Asian markets face must not be easily dismissed, but overall I am optimistic about the regions long-term growth potential.
Challenges and Change in Brazil
Brazils economy is grappling with some interesting challenges right now, such as shifts in monetary policy to cope with a possible economic slowdown and preparing to host two major events on the international stagethe 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil and the Olympics in 2016. Marco Freire, Franklin Templetons CIO, Brazil Fixed Income for the Local Asset Management team based in Sao Paulo, isnt sharing any locals-only secrets about either event, but hes happy to share his insights on how Brazil is approaching these challenges, and to clear up some common misconceptions about Brazils markets.
Diversification at the Core
The late Sir John Templeton was certainly a champion of diversifying ones basket of investments. And so is Tucker Scott, portfolio manager for Templeton Global Equity Group and manager of Templeton Foreign Fund. Diversification is at the core of his investment strategy. A summary of his recent remarks: We try to find stocks that we believe are undervalued, then build a portfolio thats well-diversified by industry and by country. We try to limit position sizes in an attempt to help limit potential stock-specific risk.
Readers Questions Answered Part IX
It doesnt make sense for any of the countries in the Eurozone to leave the Euro. Moving into another currency does not solve any problems. Thats why Im baffled when people say a particular country should leave the Eurozone. As I see it, the choice to exit a currency is not made by the government, its a choice made by the people. The good news is that the Europeans, in addition to providing more liquidity, are striving to get to the core of the problem by trying to impose fiscal discipline. For this reason, I think the outcome should be positive in the long term.
The Search for Yield in a Low-Rate Environment
There are always opportunities to capture yieldif you are willing to shoulder the price of the associated risk. In their words: We look at the return profile for a company historically, and we project that out three to five years. A low-interest rate environment generally benefits heavy borrowers, whose cost of borrowing will be kept low. We believe investors tired of little return may move out on the risk spectrum in search of more potential return. Dividends can indicate a company cares about its shareholders. Dividends look like theyre here to stay.
Par for the Investing Course
Theres a certain Hollywood mystique around the quest for The Next Great Investment. The un-glamorous truth, of course, is that unearthing hidden opportunities actually takes equal parts elbow grease and know-how. Par Rostom, is that roll-up-the-sleeves kind of guy. Hes not looking to invest in companies just because they are household names with splashy advertising campaigns. The companies are the ones he feels are best in their particular niche, but that youve probably never heard of. Surprisingly, hes finding some of them in the eurozone, a place the crowd is largely avoiding today.
Picking Stocks, Stock-by-Stock
Katrina Dudley, co-manager for Mutual European Fund, is a savvy stock shopper with both patience and resources. Here is a taste of her stock-picking approach as inspired by Mutual Series guiding principle: buy a dollars worth of assets at a discount. 1. Macro considerations are important, but they dont change our stock-by-stock selection process 2. Volatility is here to stay, but it can create opportunity 3. Were looking at the company-level impact of macro influences like eurozone austerity 4. Many European companies are readjusting their cost base, becoming more competitive.
Putting Colombia on the Global Investment Map
Colombias real GDP is projected to grow by between 5% and 6% by end 2011, and inflation to end 2011 at less than 4%. The primary caveat: lack of infrastructure remains one of the main challenges for the country; past guerrilla conflicts made large parts of the country inaccessible, a hurdle the country has not quite yet overcome. However, as security has improved, the central government has gained more access to the countryside, enabling it to make some progress on infrastructure improvements.
Dipping a Toe Back Into the Market
After the rollercoaster that was 2011, trying to explain why now seems like a good time to venture back in still sounds a little crazy. But for those who are looking for some perspective, youve come to the right place. Read on for why Ed Jamieson, president/CIO of Franklin Equity Group, Peter Langerman, president/CEO of Mutual Series, Gary Motyl, president/CIO of Templeton Global Equity Group, and Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, all think it might be time for investors to consider taking the plunge.
Capitalizing on Cambodia
Cambodia has been making strides into the capital market arena. The government has been encouraging foreign and local investment. Eventually, the local capital market should follow suit. The Cambodia Securities Exchange opened last year, making it one of the last Southeast Asian nations to open a stock exchange. Neighboring Laos opened its bourse in January 2011 and Vietnams exchange has been operating since 2000. 3 Though the Cambodian exchange has no stocks listed as I write this, the plan is to have state-owned companies in utilities, telecoms and portsto be listed.
Greek Crisis: This Too Shall Pass
Jerry Palmieri, Vice President and Sr. Portfolio Manager for Franklin Equity Group, doesnt worry too much about whether the Greek drama dominating daily headlines will turn into global market tragedy. A veteran of Franklin Templeton since 1965, hes survived to tell the tale after more than four decades of market ups and downs. His wizened view summarized: Market ups and downs are to be expected. U.S. market, economy will survive the Greek debt crisis. Things will work out. Market timing not the ticket to long-term investing success.
Hasenstab Sticks to His Guns
Michael Hasenstab, Portfolio Manager of the Templeton Global Bond Fund, doesnt scare so easily. As he reiterated recently, he actually sees times of market panic as opportunities to make investments where he sees long-term value. The key thoughts he shared: The challenge during periods of volatility is that, although investors can take a short-term hit, this volatility can create opportunity. Fears Europe will sink Asia appear overblown. China not likely to see a hard landing. The Eurozone drama continues to unfold.
Order and Progress on the Rise in Brazil
My worldwide pursuit of good investing bargains takes me to some magnificent countries. In my view, Brazil is certainly among the most beautiful and economically vibrant in the western hemisphere. Its Portuguese-speaking multiracial population of almost 200 million1 represents a growing and upwardly mobile consumer market. Brazil is the fifth most populated country in the world and is chock-full of natural resources and rich farmland. Appropriately, the countrys name comes from the wood that grows along the coast, which was greatly valued by the European textile industry.
Rise of the Dragon
With the debt situation in Europe continuing to further unravel and dim economic prospects in the U.S., many have come to believe that the star of the dragon descendants has the potential to rise even further in the coming years. Chinas GDP growth is expected to moderate to around 8.2% in 2012, which is high compared to developed economies. In this highly connected world, China is unlikely to be immune to the global slowdown, but I believe the Chinese government will utilize their substantial reserves and banking system to stimulate the domestic economy, as they did in 2009.
The Year that Was and The Year to Come
From a long-term perspective, we continue to have a positive outlook on emerging economies. In our opinion, balancing growth, inflation and global competitiveness will be the task ahead for many emerging countries in the months to come. We believe that emerging stock markets could be much larger than they are today, and over the long term, their combined value could potentially exceed the combined value of the U.S., Japanese and European equity markets.
Pioneering Frontier Markets
While emerging markets were considered a niche or exotic investment when I started investing in the late 1980s, many investors are now familiar with them and Im seeing more and more investors turning to emerging markets as a way to diversify their portfolios. Yet, emerging markets themselves are not a homogeneous zone. Within the emerging markets universe, we believe frontier markets as a whole have begun to take an impressive lead in terms of growth.
Update on Korean Peninsula
The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, escalated the uncertainty surrounding the regime change in Korea, which was preparing for a leadership transition in 2012. Little is known about Kim Jong-un, the young man who is taking on the role of dynastic head. Some analysts feel that the death of Kim Jong-il increases the risks and uncertainties from the secretive Pyongyang regime, which has consequences for security on the Korean peninsula and beyond. South Korea and Japan are most immediately threatened, but China and the U.S. are also deeply involved with stakes in North Koreas future.
Emerging Markets: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow
Almost every market move these days seems to be tied to the latest headline coming from Europe. And the U.S. political deadlock on deficit reduction, high unemployment and fear of a recession hiding under the bed are certainly not helping investor morale. But dont throw in the towel just yet. While the ongoing turbulence in the markets has investors feeling more than a little edgy, the story of robust and resilient growth in emerging markets seems cause for optimism.
Betting on Macau
Macaus lifeblood is the casinos. Its quite astounding to consider that Macaus 2010 gaming revenue was four times that of Las Vegas, making it the worlds top casino market. Macau casinos are expecting 2011 gaming revenues of $34 billion whereas Las Vegas anticipating revenues of $6 billion. The potential for Macau looks good to us, however, casinos in Singaporeare providing stiff competition, now represent the worlds second-largest gaming market. In addition, Singapore casinos enjoy a lower tax on gaming revenues. However, we still think Macauis a solid prospect for good investment.
Readers Questions Answered Part VIII
Its been a while since I answered some readers questions. Thank you, readers, for all your responses to the blogthey have been highly encouraging. 1. Do you think there will be a recession globally or in emerging markets from a mid- to
long-term perspective? 2. What is the impact if one or more countries withdrew from the euro? 3.What is your view on Ukraine? Ukraine is one of the more interesting markets since it has a number of viable industries with growth potential.
Readers Questions Answered Part VIII
Its been a while since I answered some readers questions. Thank you, readers, for all your responses to the blogthey have been highly encouraging. 1. Do you think there will be a recession globally or in emerging markets from a mid- to
long-term perspective? 2. What is the impact if one or more countries withdrew from the euro? 3.What is your view on Ukraine? Ukraine is one of the more interesting markets since it has a number of viable industries with growth potential.
Flooding in Thailand
While the consequences of the flood damage will negatively impact Thai corporate earnings, we believe the long term outlook for Thailand remains strong. In addition to the corporate tax cuts and various stimulus packages that have already been announced, the Thai government plans to spend US$13 billion on investments in dams, irrigation and water management to restore the country. We believe Thailand should also remain an attractive place for foreign direct investment due to location advantages, a supportive business environment and highly competitive workforce.
Addressing Market Volatility
With ongoing global uncertainty, I believe there are still a lot of questions surrounding the impact of market volatility in both developed and emerging markets. I recently recorded an interview discussing my views on some of these questions and want to share it with you through a video blog. I hope you like it.
Commodities and Conservation in the Caspian
What country is the worlds largest producer of petroleum? No, its not Saudi Arabia but Russia. Oil and gas are important to Russias economy, as are a whole host of natural resources such as nickel, palladium, diamonds, etc. Because of what have been higher commodity prices, Russias economy is growing at a fast pace, projected by IMF to grow 4.3% this year, interest rates have come down from their peak in 2008, unemployment is lower, foreign reserves have risen to over US$500 billion as at July 2011, and Russian equity markets have generally done well since 2008, even considering declines.
More Readers Questions Answered
We have begun to see signs that the overheated Chinese economy may moderate in the not-too-distant future. We believe that inflation in China could reach a peak in the near future as a result of the Chinese governments decision in July to increase pork supply by releasing a portion of their strategic pork reserves. By releasing more pork supply into the market, the government hopes to combat rising pork prices. That move, combined with an easing growth rate, could subsequently lead to the end of the central banks current tightening monetary policy cycle in the near term.
Readers Questions Answered Part VII
Many of you may be particularly concerned about the developments related to debt in the eurozone and theU.S.over the last few weeks. Id like to take this opportunity to share my thoughts on these events and respond to a couple of reader questions. To me, the European debt situation does not seem as serious as the U.S. debt crisis, both in terms of scale and the possible impact on the global economy. As such, I believe the worlds focus should really be on the U.S. debt crisis. We also have to remember that the tolerance for debt is generally affected by investor confidence levels.
The U.S. Debt and Emerging Market Opportunities
The initial market reaction will likely be a high degree of uncertainty and volatility, since investors will likely not know where to turn for assets with lower short-term volatility. During the subprime crisis, investors largely sought such assets in U.S. Dollars and Treasuries. While during the subprime crisis the USD index was high, now it is low reflecting a changed perception of markets that may be considered less volatile in the short-term. In particular, we believe currencies and stocks of emerging countries may look relatively attractive.
Urbanization: Driving Commodity Demand
Increasing economic activity in emerging markets has continued to push up the demand and prices for key resources such as metals and oil. Infrastructure spending is a key factor driving this rising demand, as more of the working population in emerging markets move from rural areas to the cities, increasing consumption and putting upward pressure on both hard and soft commodities. Long-term commodity prices are likely to be driven by rising global demand as well as increasing costs to obtain these commodities.
Urbanization: Building a New World
Over the next few decades, I believe we are likely to see an increase in several types of infrastructure investments due to rapid urbanization, which drives the increasing global demand for resources, mainly from emerging markets. Rapid urbanization in emerging markets, driven by rural populations migrating to cities in search of work and better opportunities, has put pressure on resources and prompted governments to pump money into a range of urban infrastructure-related sectors such as housing, transportation, sanitation, water, electricity and telecommunications.
Argentina
Argentina has been experiencing steady growth throughout the years despite the country?s economic problems, from double-digit inflation to a shrinking trade surplus. We saw one good example of the improvements in the country when we arrived at the Ministro Pistarini International Airport, which is in much better shape than it was in the past. Besides the bright and airy new wing, the customs and immigration process was quick and efficient. We then checked into a modern hotel in the Puerto Madero area in Buenos Aires, which is another good example of Argentina?s transformation.
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of 1,160 found.