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Dodging Soccer Balls and Sharks in Recife, Brazil
Recife, in Brazils northeast Pernambuco state, is known to many as the Venice of Brazil given its many waterways and bridges. A welcome winter stop for our emerging markets team, the city is blessed with a tropical climate thats as warm and sunny as its people. While the residents in this area of Brazil are often regarded as being extremely laid back given the balmy weather, we found them to be very hard workers. We found this seaside and shipping hub was not only a hotbed of tourist activity, but of potential investment opportunities as well.
The Discipline of Buy and Sell Decisions
The thought of giving up a once-treasured possession can be an emotional exercise for anyone, even if the object of affection has outlived its use. As investors, we can find it difficult to sell a once-favored holding even more difficult than the decision to purchase it. But sometimes, you just have to let go.
RISE Survey Reveals Some Somber Retirement Realities
As numbers go, 1% and 99% have gotten more than their fair share of media attention, but if youre one of the millions who hope to retire someday, you may want to pay attention to another figure: 21%. According to the 2013 Franklin Templeton Retirement Income Strategies and Expectations (RISE) survey, thats the percentage of retirees who have no savings to speak of. So how do you avoid falling into this statistical group? Thats the $64,000 question thats worth much more than thatits the price of your future.
Deep Value Diving in the Eurozone
Greeces tale of financial woe may well go down as a modern Greek tragedy, with people in power falling prey to a tragic flaw which brings about their catastrophic reversal of fortune. Its all quite dramatic and dire, but if the real life Greek financial system stays true to the classical formula, the conclusion means recognition of that tragic flaw and potential course correction. For those hardy and/or contrarian souls who suspect opportunity may be sprouting from Greeces great mess, this would be good news.
Insights on India: Land of Paradoxes
Technology has made it easy for our emerging markets team to stay in contact from nearly every corner of the globe, but electronic communications cant replace human interaction through a face-to-face exchange of ideas. Twice a year, our 50+ analysts gather together in a single location to share opinions on companies, discuss global events, and conduct a peer review and evaluation. Ive invited my colleague, Chetan Sehgal, to pen his thoughts on India and why we chose it as the location for our most recent gathering.
Taking Stock in the U.S.
Is it time to take stock in the U.S. market? Equities started the year strong as the U.S. economy sidestepped the worst-case fiscal cliff scenario and continued showing signs of improvement despite global economic uncertainty. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high in early March. While there are still a number of possible issues that threaten to derail the market, Grant Bowers, portfolio manager of Franklin Growth Opportunities Fund, believes economic resilience in the United States is encouraging news for stocks, and investors have taken notice.
Three Dimensions of Discipline
As New Year's resolutions fade into guilty memories, it's a bitter reminder that maintaining discipline, in life and investing, is just plain hard. Despite best intentions, bear markets can tempt investors to sell everything, while bull markets can whip people into a buying frenzy, both courses of action that rarely end happily.
Ed Jamiesons Quick Take on U.S. Sequestration
Overall we are not that concerned about the sequester as it relates to the financial markets. From the research weve seen, if left in place, the sequester could provide a drag on the economy of about half a percent throughout the rest of the year. The markets themselves seem to suggest the economy can grow through sequestration.
Seeking a Fixed Income Fix
While governments worldwide continue to struggle with debt and budget issues, for the most part, corporations have turned lemons into lemonade and have become lean and mean. While not without risk, corporate credit actually looks to be in fairly good shape, according to Eric Takaha who, as senior vice president and portfolio manager of Franklin Strategic Income Fund spends a good deal of time analyzing the space.
Finding What's Real in Real Estate
The U.S. financial crisis in 2008-2009 left many investors with a reluctance to take investment risks, particularly those related to any of the world's wilted housing markets. However, as your local real estate agent would likely tell you, the market in one location can be vastly different than it is in another. Wilson Magee, co-manager of Franklin Global Real Estate Fund would agree that the adage "location, location, location" applies not only to individual home buyers and sellers, but to investors seeking opportunities in the commercial real estate sector, too.
Euro Relief: The Epic Fail That Wasnt
What a difference a year makes! Early in 2012, the eurozone appeared to be on life support and market prognosticators were busy weighing the odds of a breakup. At the time, the proposition that European stocks would actually post a positive performance for the year seemed almost absurd, but of course thats just the sort of fertile environment value-hunters such as Philippe Brugere-Trelat like. Brugere-Trelat found select opportunities in Europe that were ripe for the picking. While the debt crisis in Europe is far from over, he thinks the picture looks brighter for Europe this year.
Thailand: Land of the Smiles
China and India may be Asia's largest economies, but they aren't the only countries with growth potential on the continent. Southeast Asian countries can also offer compelling investment opportunities. Thailand, known as the land of the smiles because of the expression its natural beauty and friendly people inspire, is a country where we believe the economic prospects could give investors reasons to smile too.
Commodities: Correlating Trends with Opportunities
Commodity price inflation is both a social and an economic issue. In emerging markets in particular, food and energy costs take a deeper slice out of consumers' income, which can lead to the type of unrest that causes governments to topple. In addition to the potential impact of extreme weather on food supplies, central banks around the world are printing a flood of money, which could lead to inflated prices for other goods and services.
China's Market Ups and Downs
China's stock market was a roller coaster in 2012, and those investors with a weak stomach for unpredictability probably found the ride unpleasant. Its true that by many measures last year's weak market performance in China's A share market was disappointing, but in a market of this size the story isn't all good or all bad, so unlike the market masses, I remain confident about China's prospects and continue to search for long-term investment opportunities in China.
Hasenstab: Little Value in U.S. Treasuries Right Now
The financial markets may have let out a collective sigh of relief on January 1 when U.S. politicians managed to avoid falling off the fiscal cliff, but the fact is the fundamental issue plaguing the U.S. still hasn't been addressed mounting debt. As a result, Dr. Michael Hasenstab, co-director of the International Bond Department and portfolio manager for the Templeton Global Bond Fund, says he doesn't see much value in U.S. Treasuries right now. He does see it elsewhere in the world, though, including Ireland and select emerging markets where fiscal houses appear in much better order.
Investing in Africa: Misconceptions and Realities
It's easy to fall prey to misconceptions and generalizations about places we've never been: to assume everyone in the United States drives big cars, all the French love croissants and all Canadians play hockey. There are many misconceptions about investing in developing markets, and Africa certainly has its fair share, but it's dangerous to make sweeping generalizations.
On the Road in India
India appears to be on its way to becoming a major market for motor vehicles. Annual car and truck sales currently in India are roughly one third of the 15 million units produced in the U.S., but the pace of growth has been high. The total population of registered motor vehicles in India numbered more than 100 million in 2008- 2009, with consumer vehicles (passenger cars, motorcycles and scooters) accounting for about 4/5 of the total.
New Year's Vantage Point: Norm Boersma
As we ring in a new year, it's a good time to gain some perspective on where we've been, and where we might be headed. Norm Boersma, CFA, chief investment officer of Templeton Global Equity Group, takes a look at the current headwinds facing the global equity markets, from fiscal imbalances to growth challengesand how market uncertainty can result in market mispricings.
A New Years Vantage Point: Michael Hasenstab
As we ring in a new year, it's a good time to gain some perspective on where we've been, and where we might be headed. In the first few weeks of January, Beyond Bulls & Bears will be featuring a series of investment commentaries from select Franklin Templeton investment management teams. These professionals provide their insights on the market ups and downs of 2012, and the potential challenges and opportunities that may lie ahead from their respective vantage points. Today we hear from Michael Hasenstab, portfolio manager and co-director of the International Bond Department.
Ring in the New
The "year of the dragon" in 2012 certainly didnt disappoint, as the global markets battled one financial dragon after another. From the Eurozone's sovereign debt crisis to persistently high unemployment in the U.S. and a mayday call from many who worried that China's growth rate was headed for a "hard landing," 2012 certainly was interesting. As we turn the calendar page to 2013, the Eurozone seems to be in less-critical condition and China's economic growth still appears to be flying but as of this writing, the U.S. debt problems still haven't been solved.
Where Munis and Government Budgets Meet
In the realm of municipal bonds, if you had been focusing on the bankruptcy filings or threats facing a few California cities that dominated the news headlines earlier this year, you couldn't have been blamed for concluding that the sector was a minefield. But then, as year-end approached, the state and local government story became more upbeat, and investors were flocking to the municipal market. Rafael Costas, co-director of the Franklin Municipal Bond Department, has ridden this kind of headline carousel before and he's used to seeing these types of stories cycle through.
Saving for Retirement Stage 3: Making Retirement Funds Last as Long as You Do
So you're finally ready to retire. You've worked hard. You've planned. You've saved. You're ready to toss the business section and flip to the travel pages. You hope the investment decisions you've made have positioned you to meet your future needs. You may be retired, but your money has to keep working, and luck, as they say, tends to favor the prepared. In this third installment of our "Saving for Retirement" series, we take a look at some considerations and strategies for those fortunate folks beginning or living in retirement.
Egypt's Arab Winter
It's been almost two years since the "Arab Spring" swept North Africa and the Middle East, and with it, grand hopes for change. Sometimes, change doesn't happen as quickly as the people would like, and oftentimes it can be a messy process. That is certainly true in Egypt right now, a country that is still in the throes of shaping its future. The ousting of Hosni Mubarak in 2011 didn't instantly transform the nation into a model of democracy, and the country is currently deliberating the best way forward via public debates, protests and the election process.
The Consumer Catalyst in Asia's Emerging Markets
There may be no better evidence of the economic power of the consumer than the spending frenzy that occurs this time of yearthe sparkling lights, the must-have gifts and gadgets, the indulgent meals. Whether online, brick and mortar, big box or mom-and-pop, retailers count on the year-end consumer boom.
Saving for Retirement Stage 2: The Sandwich Generation
Youve probably heard of the term sandwich generation, a time at mid-life when many individuals find themselves caring simultaneously for their children and their aging parents. Its a time when investment dollars can get squeezed out by day-to-day and unexpected expenses, a mortgage and possibly even a college savings plan. In this second of our three-part Investing for Retirement series, we take a look at some retirement savings strategies for individuals coping with these mid-life challenges as they themselves begin to look toward transitioning into retirement.
Will China's New Leaders Rise to Reform?
While the uncertainty wrought by the election process in democratic countries may be largely absent in China, the country's gradual transition to new leadership and the likely new course for the country over the next decade still raises questions. In March 2013, the National People's Congress, China's parliament and highest state body, intends to formally usher in China's leadership, and some members of the "old guard" are retiring. Will China's new leaders continue to reform the economy, moving it toward a domestic consumption model, and still be able to maintain enviable growth rates?
Saving for Retirement: Stage 1
Most of us have certain expectations about our retirement. We may daydream of the golden years as a time to explore exotic locales, perfect a golf swing, or just relax. The reality is often quite different, particularly for those whove done more daydreaming than planning, or who have suffered setbacks to their portfolios in 2008-2009 and feel a sense of paralysis. Knowing where to begin can be confusing, and as with most things, overcoming inertia to take that first step certainly isnt easy.
Fiscal Cliff Countdown: Templeton Perspectives
The U.S. "fiscal cliff" clock is ticking loudly, and so far U.S. politicians havent been able to cooperatively silence it. A sweeping roster of automatic spending cuts and tax hikes remain set to go into effect at year-end with what could be detrimental economic consequences.
Fiscal Cliff: An Emerging Markets' View
Now that the U.S. presidential election is over and President Barack Obama has been re-elected to serve a second four-year term, we're able to do what we always do after a major election or regime change, and that's examine the potential implications of policy changes on our investments. As our team sees it, there are two main factors for global investors to consider: the U.S. economy's future health, and President Obama's foreign policy stance toward key countries, particularly China.
Fix the Debt!
In the "normal" course of a U.S. election, investors typically breathe a sigh of relief when the results come in, with at least one layer of market uncertainty removed. This time around, the political squabbling hasn't ended with the close of the polls on November 6. The debate about the "fiscal cliff," a combination of spending cuts and tax hikes set to go into effect on January 1, 2013, has heightened. Market volatility since the election seems to have heightened, too.
Central Bankers Take Steps Where Politicians Fear to Tread
In the past few years, many global central banks have enacted various measures to stimulate their respective economiesin some cases without the support of fiscal measuresand sometimes to little effect. John Remmert, senior vice president and senior portfolio manager for Franklin Equity Group, shares his insights on why central banks have acted in some cases where politicians seemed fearful to tread.
Russia and China's Neighborly Interests
Whether our neighbors are as close as the airplane seat next to us or across a national border, most would probably agree that while we may not see eye to eye, peaceful cooperation makes more sense than tense relations. China and Russia share some 4,000 miles of common border, and their neighborly relationship has certainly had some ups and downs. But it's clear to me that the opportunities for cooperation between these two nations have enormous potential mutual benefits, particularly in the trade of natural resources.
A Delicate Balance
You'd be hard-pressed to find someone who argues that balance is a bad thing, but in this time of austerity versus growth and political us-versus-them, you'd be equally hard-pressed to find agreement on how to achieve balance. Right now the U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of the much-publicized so-called "fiscal cliff," a one-two punch of automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to go into effect in 2013, and which threaten to tip the nation into recession.
World's Economies Come of Age
As we grow and age, our needs and habits often change. The same is true of economies, which grow and change along with their people. Short-term statistics that impact a country's economic growth rate, such as consumer spending, exports and the like are certainly important, but there are also long-term shifts that can have significant economic implications for the future. Changing demographics is one of them. As a long-term investor, I have to look not only at today's opportunities, but also plan for tomorrow's developments.
Of Irish and Fiscal Cliffs
Dr. Michael Hasenstab, Templeton Global Bond Fund portfolio manager and co-director of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group's International Bond Department, doesn't prescribe legislative answers, but he can relate the fiscal challenges the U.S. faces to the experiences of a country with its own dramatic cliffs: Ireland.
Will South Africa's Struggles Overshadow its Potential?
Africa is a continent many investors bypass, but from my perspective as a long-term investor, I think that's a mistake. South Africa has faced some struggles recently, but I think they can be overcome, and a brighter future could be ahead there for its people. South Africa is the largest economy in Africa, and is the only country on the continent where I think the "frontier" market label doesn't apply. Some have added an "S" to the end of the "BRIC" acronym to include South Africa in the grouping of emerging market economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Renminbi on the International Stage
For more than a decade, China's currency, the Renminbi (RMB), had been on a path of appreciation, but some weakness this year generated renewed talk about whether the currency is fairly valued against global currencies. As global equity investors, we are constantly faced with currency changes. This is an important factor when considering our investments, because currency movements impact companies' earnings and operations.
Getting Trampled by the Herd
Many people are programmed to assume the consensus view is the correct one. They see a particular movie based on a number of positive reviews, buy a particular phone because people have camped out in front of a store to get it, or change their hairstyle based on the latest fad. It's extremely hard to go against the crowd, even if you can't afford that fancy new phone, or that new hairstyle isn't actually so attractive on you. It may be easy to laugh off falling prey to a gadget trend or a hairstyle, but what happens when it's your investments that have been trampled by following the herd?
The ABCs of China's Share Markets
A shares, B shares, H shares. Chinese equity listings can be confusing to global investors. I'm often asked what I think about a particular share market in China, why one is outperforming others, and which to invest in. I can't tell you what to invest in, but I can give you some information which I hope will help you discern what choices make sense for you.
When Averting Loss Can Lead to Averting Gains
Think about something you'd really hate to lose, something of value to you such as a treasured possession. Now imagine you're told that if you lay that object on the line in a bet, you have a good shot at doubling its value, but there's also a possibility you'll lose it. How low would the chance of loss have to be before you'd be willing to take the risk? Maybe 10 percent? Less than that? The answer may lie in a behavioral economic theory called "loss aversion."
Will South Africas Struggles Overshadow its Potential?
Africa is a continent many investors bypass, but from my perspective as a long-term investor, I think that's a mistake. South Africa has faced some struggles recently, but I think they can be overcome, and a brighter future could be ahead there for its people. South Africa is the largest economy in Africa, and is the only country on the continent where I think the "frontier" market label doesn't apply. Some have added an "S" to the end of the "BRIC" acronym to include South Africa in the grouping of emerging market economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Economic Recovery and Debt Reduction: Faster, Please!
It's tough to be patient in an age of instantaneous communications and instant gratification. We all want immediate answers to our questions and quick fixes to our problems. When it comes to real world tangles like the global economy, though, Chris Molumphy, CIO of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, reminds us that patience, not a magic pill, is the order of the day when it comes to European and U.S. struggles to cure their economic ailments. He's realistic about these problemsbut isn't waiting to act where he does spot investment opportunities.
When Do You Ignore Your Gut?
Anyone who took an introductory psychology class probably remembers the classic study in which different people witnessing the same crime each report a different take on what happened. Though each presumably sane, sober person witnessed the events with his or her own two eyes, individual expectations and biases influenced how they perceived what happened. Sure, you say, but what does this have to do with investing? Well, it turns out that our individual expectations and biases influence how we view investments, too.
Priming the Liquidity Pump
The global economy is often like a line of dominos. One piece tumbles, causing others to fall too. This year, weak economic growth and heavy debt burdens in many developed markets had a domino effect on emerging economies, and many investors lost confidence in both. In response, central banks have taken actions to boost economic growth and prime the liquidity pump.
Are BRICs Hitting a Growth Wall?
A global pattern of easing economic growth in the first half of 2012 has impacted the "BRIC" nations Brazil, Russia, India and China. However, I don't think the BRIC economies have hit a brick wall. While some market participants have been waiting impatiently for governments to undertake further stimulus measures, others have wondered whether something more fundamentaland less within governmental controlmight be at work.
ECB Throws Euro a Life Preserver
A few short months ago, the euro appeared to be in critical condition. The crushing weight of debt, particularly in Southern Europe, seemed to be sucking the life out of the European Union. Now that the European Central Bank has announced that it stands ready to provide some life support to the euro, the contagion fears seem to have ebbed, and one might even say predictions of its death were perhaps greatly exaggerated.
Power Struggles and Progress in Romania
Bordering the Black Sea in Southeastern Europe, Romania offers visitors a variety of beautiful and dramatic landscapes concentrated in a relatively small land area, including modern cities and medieval villages, sweeping mountain vistas, broad plains and sandy beaches. Romania may also be one of the more attractive investment destinations in emerging Europe today, but its political environment has been characterized by some power struggles as dramatic as its scenic views.
Finding Seeds of Growth
Like the seed waiting to emerge beneath an icy winter blanket, there are equity growth opportunities sprouting that perhaps aren't obvious on the surface. When the global economic landscape seems rocky and unfertile, you might think opportunities in growth-oriented stocks would be stunted. Serena Perin Vinton, co-manager for Franklin Growth Fund, knows where to dig for those growth opportunities though, and sometimes it's in unusual places. One area she points to is U.S. manufacturing, which she believes could be set to stage a comeback.
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