It’s news to no one that energy has been the worst performing sector year to date with plenty of hatred of the sector to go around. Yet, as we write the price of WTI crude oil is up about 2% on news of capex cuts and OPEC’s apparent moves to reign in production and exports.
The financial sector has been getting a lot of attention recently with earnings announcements so we thought we’d weigh in on one aspect of financial stock relative performance that is making it difficult for financials to truly lead this market higher: the flattening yield curve.
This quarter, we look at two important structural changes that appear to be underway: a normalization in US and European monetary policy and a normalization in crude oil inventories.
The USD is weak again today and plunging lows not seen for 15 months. The “obvious” reasons for the USD weakness include converging foreign economic activity, more hawkish foreign monetary policies, and a general overvaluation of USD.
It’s been awhile since we’ve weighed in on the active/passive debate so we thought we’d toss our hat in the ring yet again and try to explain the asset migration that is taking the fund management industry by storm.
Highlighting the deteriorating trend in Chinese corporate financials has been an annual feature our of this blog.
Today’s payroll beat of 222,000 nonfarm jobs being added to the economy in June should be viewed in a larger context of overall slowing employment statistics that all point to the US economy remaining in its relatively weak and slowing trend.
With the euro up another 50bps today against the USD, we thought it timely to review some fundamental factors that should act to support the longer-term trend higher in the euro.
The US dollar is having another tough go today after it spent the first part of June working off an oversold condition and rallying modestly.
The last six months has seen one of the most incredible changes in investor positioning in 10-year US treasury bonds in recent history. Back in early January, around the time rates peaked, non-commercial traders (AKA speculators) were net short 10-year options and futures contracts by a whopping 17% of open interest.
To say that value is difficult to find in the global equity markets would be an understatement. In fact, when we look at all 44 of the developed market regions and regoin/sectors, what we find is that in only ten of them is the median company trading at a discount to its own 10-year average multiple.
Back in December 2016, we discussed our expectation for lower longer-term US interest rates, which we used to justify an aversion to financial stocks. This expectation played out.
The essence of diversification is choosing assets that are not perfectly correlated with each other. The logic is simple enough: when one asset zigs, another zags. Years ago, finance scholars proved that a portfolio of securities is less risky than an individual holding and the idea of diversification as a risk management tool was born.
We met with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan for a quarterly update right before the French presidential elections. In addition to calling Macron’s win, Peter outlined the three most important geopolitical shifts for US financial advisors to watch in the coming months.
A recent run of weaker economic data, highlighted by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) plunging to -32 from 58 in mid-March has caught the attention of the US Treasury bond market.
With the USD now about 5% off its January peak and having made a series of four lower lows and lower highs, it’s fair to say that the period of US dollar strength we witnessed for most of 2016 has come and gone.
From the middle of April through yesterday 10-year treasury rates rose from 2.17 to 2.40, prompting the obvious question of how high will they rise. The interesting thing about the recent slight backup in rates is that it has occurred within the context of slowing economic data.
In the table below we show the aggregate US Treasury maturity schedule. Due to stops and starts of the US Treasury issuing longer dated bonds over the last few decades, there is a huge gap in maturities available for investors.
So far in this earnings season, with over half of companies having reported, the energy sector has experienced the biggest earnings surprise. Earnings have come in almost 23% ahead of analyst estimates, nearly double the surprise of the consumer discretionary sector.
Since the beginning of 2017, the US dollar has struggled against nearly every major currency, calling into question the idea that the US dollar is still in a bull market. Indeed, since the dollar made its cyclical high on the first day of 2017 trading,
In this quarter’s Knowledge Leaders Strategy update, we discuss our work in four areas.
As investors, it’s easy to get caught up in headlines about things like Snap’s $23bn market cap or Tesla overtaking Ford and GM to become the most valuable US auto maker.
After testing and bouncing off the important 2.32% level four times so far in 2017, the US 10-year bond finally broke below that important threshold. The phenomenon has gone basically unnoticed by the financial commentators, but it occurs just as US economic data begins to wane following the bounce that started in the second half of 2016.
Last week, Intel executives took the stage in San Francisco to report to an audience of analysts, investors and media that Moore’s Law is alive and well. What does this have to do with our investment process and the Knowledge Effect? Everything.
It was shaping up to be a pretty good day for stocks until the Fed minutes dropped the balance sheet hammer on the markets this afternoon. In the minutes detailing the discussion at the March meeting, Fed officials suggested they might begin draining the balance sheet later this year.
As 1Q17 finishes with a gain in the books, the stock to bond performance ratio has also broken to a new cycle high, elevating to levels not seen since mid-2007.
With the dissolution of health care legislation barely final, murmurers out of Washington seem to suggest tax reform/cuts and infrastructure may be tackled in tandem in a way that attracts bipartisan support.
In a market experiencing the largest pullback since the election, investors are rightly looking for places to hide. At present, according to our work, the US energy sector is the only truly oversold sector.
As the first quarter nears its end there is some debate as to where Q1 GDP growth will come in. As recently as yesterday the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate had GDP growth of .9% and this morning the NY Fed’s Nowcast is expecting 2.8%.